We chatted to IronRidge Resources' CEO Vincent Mascolo who explains why the company has become a lithium explorer. Watch the video here.
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@Investor12. I thought John Cornford gave a sensible methodology for a project at this stage: resource estimate x copper price x %.
You just need to come up with the assumptions.
If you just plug in the existing resource of 340k tnes, $8k/tne Cu price and 3% you get a value of over £60m. Clearly resource should go up as a result of recent drilling.
investor12... no that would be 10%. the norm seems to be anywhere between 1.5% and 5% depending on geographical risks and difficulty of extracting the copper.
Plus copper price is expected to increase to 9,000 USD/ton within 2 years or so
Just having ago at valuing Bushranger. If the fair market value for copper is $7000 per tonne is it reasonable to allow $700 per tonne as a proven in ground resource in my rough calcs?
Any help appreciated.
"Colin Bird XTR 2 holes we*ve reported have certainty, magnitude wise given a very strong indication of very big system.
We*re very excited and waiting for gold results.
I know we have got a very big system.
Everybody inside XTR is very excited."
[Sharetalk has embedded the Colin Bird, Executive Chairman, XTR interview with them on Sat, 6 Feb 2021 and the above is a excerpt. However, one MUST CHECK and hence the reason why the link is given as there can be errors.]
Conversation on this forum today and on Twitter is closely akin to what H202 asked at 10:10.
So, that is the summary of what the Chairman of XTR said ie Colin Bird as above on Sat, 6 Feb 2021. No one provided the answer.
Similarly, at Greatland which John Cornford referred to in relation to the article he wrote about XTR Racecourse-Bushranger, the CEO there also give his views on the Havieron system in his interview/s etc + RNS. So, time will now PROVE all things as it did with Havieron. All geological hypothesis is PROVED by the drill but many seasoned investors especially professional ones have to come to some idea otherwise they would not invest so up to each to form their OWN view etc.
News, Tues, 9 Feb 2021.
You and Colin will be dacing around the kitchen spilling your cornflakes when it hits 10p
This has really assisted in my understanding of the bushranger porphyry system many thanks
Just hope Colin isn’t a Smooth Criminal (Jokes no slander intended)
In my mind I break down our current share price and Market cap - 6p / 40m gbp .. both approx - into constituent parts as follows:
Manica : 3p (20m gbp Market Cap)
Eureka : .5p (3.33m gbp MC)
Bushranger: 2.5p (16.66m gbp MC)
By summer(ish) time the LEAST I expect -aka hope for - is:
Eureka: ?? (so a guess which I pitch at mid point between bad case and good case - note: NOT worst - always 0 - and best case btw - in my mind : 2p)
Bushranger ???? (so a guess which I pitch at mid point between bad case and good case - note: NOT worst - always 0 - and best case btw - in my mind: 7.5p)
Total 14.5 p (97m gbp Market Cap)
(Aside: Bushranger is the key driver of any BEST CASE scenarioing I might also offer - i.e. on top of the afore 'good case' scenarioing - for this s/p by summerish time.. too big a guess to even offer a number I suggest... but where's the fun in that... so I'll go Bushranger 22p (Approx 150m gbp Market Cap) and the Africa assets in total another 10p on top (Approx 67m gbp Market Cap) ...giving, in total, 'just the' 32p share price (approx 217m gbp Market Cap) :-))
They have had three days to move the rig and set it up for the third drill - so hopefully we will get confirmation today or tomorrow what progress is being made.
Am I right in thinking the planned depth will be around 900m, with the hope that we will have a significant over-run like with the second drill? That being the case, this hole could easily end up being 1000m - 1100m overall - so 10-15 days of drilling?
Call me a pessimist but I don’t think we will be getting revenue of $40 million from Eureka.
CB has previously stated we will get 55-60% to of spot copper for the concentrate, and we only have 50% of the project? In addition not sure if there is any royalty due to the government/land owners.
For me we will only get up to roughly $40m revenue once all projects come online (even then we may not depending on how the accounting treatments work eg in Manica it’s basically a NPI so our revenue may just be the monthly cash flow).
Having said that the market will value us on our cash generation not revenue (plus obviously BR potential)
Hope my waffle makes sense
Thanks all for response.
Hopefully official RNS in due course will confirm the size of resources.
Excuse the typo... I blame the weather.
We havent had a single lab assay yet, so nobody in the world could answer that IMO.
I do think its fair to say, that we are finding lots of new mineralisation, so its difficult to see that the JORC won't increase by quite a bit.
Ps. for those trying to work out wether grades will be commercial or not, very worth noting the following statement:
"The Phase One drilling programme will follow up drill intersections such as 159m @ 0.4% Cu and 0.2g/t Au in drill hole BRD001 and 169m @ 0.4% Cu and 0.1g/t Au in drill hole BRD009 (as previously announced these drill results have not yet been independently tested or verified by Xtract) and investigate the zonation of higher gold grades within the Racecourse Mineral Resource."
Piece that together with the copper grades from the XRF and the commentary surrounding gold/ increased mineralisation at depth and I'd suggest you may already have the answer, assays will just confirm what we can already work out from info available (imo).
I don't think anyone who posts on this bb is qualified enough to answer that for you.
The best I can offer with the current information available: This will be considerably bigger than the current Jorc resource and is looking very likely to be commercial:
"Racecourse Mineral Resource, which was estimated in 2018 as 71Mt @ 0.44% Cu and 0.064g/t Au, at a 0.3% Cu cut-off, and has been classified as Inferred in accordance with JORC (2012)."
And the 40 million annual turnover for XtR does not include Manica. So we should end up with our financial metrics being better than Alkane.
With Guy Fawkes having sent some ore to the plant it sounds like they have already started to calibrate the ore processing, whilst at the same time building up an ore stockpile from two mining faces.
The commencement of stoping in March is of course significant because a stope opens up large areas of reef face so you can see the various gold veins and this allows you to chase the individual veins, allowing work to be carried on multiple digs at the same time - the end result being gold-rich ore being produced at a much faster rate than is possible from the simple tunneling of one or two ends .
Income from April onwards should therefore be multiples of the current alluvial contributions...
For someone who's not a geologist, can someone explain based on these data, what's expected minimum and maximum resources are we looking at?
Granted not everything will be recoverable.
Just an observation: We had the geochemical update on the Monday (25th) after the first drill (BRDD-20-001) stopped on Friday (22nd).
The results are looking very promising considering the implied size of the resource :
o 40m @ 0.3% Cu from 110m using a 0.2% Cu cut-off
o 148m @ 0.3% Cu from 171m using a 0.2% Cu cut-off
§ Including 30m @ 0.6% Cu from 235m using a 0.3% Cu cut-off
o 287m @ 0.3% Cu from 474m using a 0.2% Cu cut-off
§ Including: 30m @ 0.4% Cu from 517m using a 0.3% Cu cut-off
§ and: 23m @ 0.5% Cu from 628m using a 0.3% Cu cut-off
§ and: 39m @ 0.5% Cu from 722m using a 0.3% Cu cut-off
Recent comment re (BRDD-21-002):
"The drill core will next be logged in detail and copper grades will be initially assessed using a hand-held XRF spectrometer prior to cutting of the core in preparation for definitive laboratory sample analysis for copper, gold and other accompanying elements." ref: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/bushranger-drilling-programme-progress-update-nqnwkp37h3kb0j3.html
Not sure about the rest of you but I'm expecting a geochemical update RNS imminently.
Companies are normally valued at the perceived value of their discounted future income streams.
That can be elucidated from their previous profit streams plus growth prospects eg Shell or an asset that the company has likely discovered that will turn into future income streams for themselves or another company buying in.
It’s the nature of exploration companies that they don’t have historic PE ratios as they are building asset portfolios for development or sale - I’m sure the OP knows that .
Should do or should stick with mania stocks such as Gamestink , blockbuster etc with their triific PE ratios
Interestingly CB posited xtr as a hybrid explorer / producer and has been pointed out many times on here if the OP cba to read , there are near term profit flows coming on line in 2021, ignoring this Godzilla of a discovery which will take 5 years to get producing as it’s so darn big.
I do wish that sometimes Mr Bird wouldn't say as much.
We don't know this is BODA like in grades...yet.
Its certaintly nothing like solg
Its not the case, that if one finger is good they are all good. In northparkes, every finger is different. I would expect nothing less here. Some gold heavy, some copper heavy. Even in Cadia, some intrusions are better than others.
That aside, hopefully we get the initial XRF today or tomorrow. Drill 3 should be hitting mineralisation, although we haven't had it confirmed yet, exactly where it has been located.
We are looking for an average of .4 with copper and gold combined. Even .3 eq would be good enough, as AA's 450Mt was calculated using the prices we have a back then and it used the AUS/USD that we had back then which has changed by 20%.
We can dream that we have better, BODA gold grades etc, but we don't need it even to sustain a price of 9-10p.
Ah ok, I see what you mean about GGP. As the size is still so unknown the research is better spent at this stage looking at the development of miners. Once we have a better idea hopefully from the 3D model, we can then look at mcaps etc.? I see the logic, thanks for the help.
Sorry for: Fowldzy
There are other targets of mineralisation over the area xtr has to develop so no one really sure what the plays are until further work carried out. Birds statement ' if one good all are likely to be good ' there's a lot more riding on the than the current find