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Very average sells and buys today. This means any news is being held close to the chest. Bad news travels fast. Todays trades don't reflect this, therefore i can only assume some decent news coming out tomorrow. Positive thoughtpositve results.
Might be an idea to repost Andys questions (I just tried and failed on my phone).
My guess is Colin will be reading the chatboards in the lead up to the agm.... and if he knows the questions ahead of time he will give a fuller answer.
They are good questions
Hi JS
The board will do what ever is strategically necessary to maximise the impact when the time is right. Colin can be as frank, honest sincere and open as he normally does, but I was under the impression many don’t believe what he says anyway, so what are you actually expecting him to divulge that is not going to be dismissed in a few days as over optimism ;-)
The questions that Andmillsy has compiled to ask at agm (post 17aug @08.30) are sensible and would be good to get some feedback on those from the company.
Are you suggesting shareholders should turn up at the AGM tomorrow and just sit there winking up at the BoD and hoping they'll wink back? Absolute nonsense that good news is being kept back. If anything bad news is being held back. CB does not hold back good news.
You can see why Colin is said to be not keen on releasing ‘good’ news into the market at this time.
Unless it can be followed up with a stream of good news to sustain any initial rerate it’s inevitably going to get dragged back down as we have seen on many occasion. You can’t blame the BOD.
At a corporate level the low MC really isn’t so much a concern. With the potential of existing assets being far in excess in value of currently what the market values it at. The agreement in place is a good deterrent against any corporate actions. I’m certain once there is some sustained growth in the sector and the market in general, there will be a news drive that may also include the Q results to coincide when resource modelling with tonnages is ready to be released potentially from within a couple of months time. I think only then will it be safe to potentially be free from the agreement when a firm value can be placed on the company that will see maybe some institutional, or more wealthier investors arrive, particularly so if AA are not interested in moving into NSW, the company will not be so vulnerable.
From RNS
>> Upon the return of all remaining assay results from the Phase Two Drilling Programme at Racecourse and Ascot, a new resource model for both prospects will be developed.
There will be a separate RC model with tonnages that could be released sooner, along with new conceptual pit but I think it’s fairly clear of their intent to evaluate what to do next from this RNS and some other comments in RNS’s that will be once ‘all’ the data is input when last of Ascot assays are finite.
Yep, nothing changes on AIM, a few poxy trades and down it goes.
F100
Its a casino and the house always wins
How is it that the day before news is announced if the share price is down then the news is usually bad but on the other hand if the news is good then so is the price. I just wish I could tap into this information the day before is there a crystal ball involved.
Lucky. After your Friday evening post, I had another listen to the following podcast over the weekend.
https://audioboom.com/posts/8030424-sunday-roast-copper-gold-special-with-shaun-day-colin-bird-martyn-churchouse-and-professor-ri
It is long but listening again was interesting. Ignoring the timelines which we have discussed many times, Colin feels the copper price won't go below $7500 and the copper market will pick up in 2024 (was already high at the time of this podcast in Feb 2022). Given the recent drop in copper prices during the summer I do wonder whether they are playing for time.
I also noted later on in the video that Colin isn't that fussed by gold. That might explain what appears to me as a lack of interest in Manica. Personally I feel that is a mistake in the current market but his decision.
Already voted as i wont be able to attend. Due to not needing to raise any more. Is skill set isnt required. Therefore no need for him to be draining cash from the business so I voted out.
Lucky,
I can see your point. However, IF there was another party interested then I would expect them to be planning to mine the deposit. Another party may not want to show their hand while AA have first right of refusal but a decision to mine must somehow allow for the fact that it may be by another party?
I won't be their, in the past Colin has been very fortcoming with answers, please give him my regards, still heavily invested in the project
I wonder about Charles though, noticible by his absence from chat boards for months now, I hope all is ok with him, if he is there, please also give him my regards.
My regards to all other attendees, I really would have liked to be there, hopefully I can catch up on any news tomorrow
AA will laugh us out the room with the decision to mine. Whats our Mcap? And What's the capex?
Unfortunately I cannot get to the AGM tomorrow which I am very unhappy about.
I think it's unlikely anyone at the AGM will grill Colin. Please, can someone going try and at least get some questions answered!!
Judging by the SP, the market isn't expecting any life changing news tomorrow.
I think CB will announce the phase three drilling campaign in Footrot and effectively push the decision to mine/AA offer down the road into next year.
I have mixed feelings about it for sure.
It does feel like he's lost interest in XTR again. Time will tell.
The huge difference between results released quickly due to good gold levels and results released slowly is becoming pretty obvious and tedious. We need to have some standardised reporting mechanism. There cannot be such disparity - as Andrew points out the gap has reached maybe 8-10 weeks between good and bad news. It just makes us look manipulative and like amateurs.
Meanwhile the inevitable slide from 4.5p last week to back under 4p continue in earnest. Essentially due to profit taking but they are profit taking due to no other foreseeable short or mid term sale/transaction. We were told this was not going to be a death of a thousand lashes but it's now looking that way with a phase 3.
Priorities for Colin tomorrow.
1. Can we come across like a more serious professional outfit with release dates set in stone.
2. Can we actually advertise that we are a profit making, gold producer in a time of high inflation. PR is woeful currently which affects sp and our bargaining power in conversations.
3. A clear vision about timelines. What is the actual plan and how long. We've know since the June 2020 PowerPoint that there were anomalies (it's still a document I refer back to and two years after creation it's still the version on the website -no interest in updating it?!) - Footrot, southern intrustions, daisybank etc. So if we knew there was incredible potential for more porphyries, why give us hope of a quick turnaround / quick update to models.
4. What is happening to Eureka. Dirt was being trucked months ago. Is this going to bring any money in?
5. Will we drill for IOCG @Eureka?
I will be attending tomorrow - my first AGM so mainly in spectator/observation mode. I'm hoping some more seasoned investors will be able to get answers from Colin on the above and more.
I am sure if the model or q2 results were good then it would have been released by now,
Or is it that they are just not ready yet as some would have you believe!!.
Maybe he's going to release them tomorrow morning stop make shareholders happy and possibly save his pal from the exit door?
"I thought news had to be released when it's available, not when it suits Colin"
You're right Lucky. What was I thinking suggesting CB would release alluvial news at certain times to suit him :)
Over the last 4 years, I'm sure the previous release of alluvial results, varying from 2 weeks after the period ended up to 3 months after period, was all outside of CB's control and released as soon as available :)
Andreww, that's one hell of a coincidence that they will be released just before the agm.
I thought news had to be released when it's available, not when it suits Colin to pacify some shareholders.
As the AGM is on Tuesday, I would expect the Q2 results to be released before, either tomorrow or Tuesday 7am.
Q2 results (and Q3s) are usually good (sometimes very good) in comparison, so they should put SH in a good mood prior to the AGM?
There is an interesting theory, that the declining ore grades should not necessarily be interpreted as a sign of the depletion of existing large mines, nor as an indicator of reduced resource availability or the increasing scarcity of new discoveries. This is because changes in the average ore grades being mined can be attributed to other factors such as innovation and improvements in extractive technologies, extending the life of older mines over finding new ones. Moreover, there is evidence that for most metals, as ore grades decline, the deposit size grows faster than the very decline in ore grade meaning greater amounts of economically recoverable metals.
All swings and roundabouts at this time but we have seen projects mining at an economic cut off of 0.1%-0.15%Cu. With a brand new central extra large capacity, ultra high tech extraction and processing facility that will see close to 90% recovery rates of concentrate. Could it be feasible that the new owners will be mining economically down into sub 0.1%Cu grades?
Long term price for copper will play a large part but will the global demand still far outstrip the technological advancements that will see these older and new mines process the ever lower grades that are more abundant in those resources that will see their ore reserves increase?
I would certainly not disagree there lucky, the more they do to build the resource the more value it will add.
I would only point out though that the extended drilling in phase 2 that Colin apologised to the market for that saw the extra couple of months delay…(Mmmm) was so we wouldn’t have to see the project sold and in 6 months another Cadia is found!
So potentially from that it could well mean that already there is enough supporting evidence. So it certainly not a given that they will need to do further exploratory drilling to show ‘Cadia like’ potential.
But maybe don’t count on it though, it all hinges on the outcome of phase 2 evaluation so will see.
Yes howzap, It's a maybe but I suspect it will happen. I understand the value added by having a proven resource over inferred is substantial. Therefore it makes sense to drill the high grade zone. It also makes sense to fully drill ascot to a good standing. It also makes sense to drill anomalies so we don't give away a cadia.
All it pointing towards a continued drilling programme. We also have the funds to continue so why wouldn't they? I bet Jeremy Reed has been begging Colin to continue.
I suspect Colin has agreed to give the team more time and more money to make sure they don't give away a cadia.
Hi lucky
>> a Phase Three drilling programme which will focus on in-fill and upgrade drilling of the current known resources; resource extension drilling; and testing of further IP/geochemical anomalies outside the Ascot and Racecourse prospects.<<
Hole 33 tested an outlying anomaly from IP survey to the east above the discovery hole of ascot, the assays were the very high grades (15.5 g/t Au ) this is for further drilling. Also the deep gold intersections south of the discovery hole too, was for further drilling, and potentially at shallower depths too. One of the last holes drilled (49) was to the east and very southern part of Ascot, this will be an isolated hole that tested the southern extent so I would guess that the extension drilling will be to join up strike to extend the current 750metres.
Where it states ‘infill and upgrade of the current ‘known’ resources’ implies phase 3 will be further upgrading the initial ‘expected’ inferred resource at Ascot to part indicated potentially where there are the shallower mineralised zones.
However in the bulleted points earlier in the RNS it states-
>> A Phase Three drilling programme is under consideration, with aims to;
* define the shallow, high-grade crown in the centre of the Racecourse Prospect;
* identify the extents of the Ascot Prospect;
* target the higher-grade gold intersections at both prospects, especially at shallower depths;
* drill test satellite IP/geochemical anomalies
So is a bit unclear exactly. But resource planning at Ascot will ultimately follow the same path as RC to a conceptual pit study for whoever and whenever the project gets taken over.
Need to remember phase 3 is only under consideration. Once the resource models with tonnages are released the decision could then be with Anglo one way or another.
A rse