The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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>>……….should trump today's short term market affected copper price. <<
?You would think so ZM
It’s a fair guess that Colin is hoping for a buying frenzy. To finally get to be in the position to trigger the buy back to be free from the restricting agreement will open up the project to, “The other interested parties that are watching on.” Potentially more suitable than Anglo if they do decline their option. It has gone eerily quiet, due to final modelling and then the process that needs to conclude with AA.
If it was interpreted right at the AGM “to get a no from AA,” that process could likely happen at any time as there would not be any advantages in waiting any longer than necessary would there?
I still can't accept that today's spot copper price should dictate a major's willingness to secure a long term copper resource. With 10 year lead-in to production, and world-wide supply set for huge deficit and new discovery rate plummettng, getting your hands on a viable sizeable open pit resource with near surface capex funding early gains to be had in a safe jurisdiction ... should trump today's short term market affected copper price.
There are so few discoveries of any note coming through would not a sensible strategy be to secure the resource now rather than fight for it amongst others later?
"Goldman Sachs is forecasting the LME copper price to more than double from its current level, to $15,000 a ton in 2025".
https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2022-10-27/Copper-the-most-important-metal-we-re-running-short-of.html
A good read. The world is slowly starting to realise!
"... I'm not in a hurry to buy any small copper mobs yet."
I think this sums up the general lack of uptake here.
Lol, who's got returns this year? Not me anyhow. My only winner has been my Turkish gas thing. Even the el cheapo coal stock I picked has gone nowhere, which surely takes a special skill in this market. I'm fairly confident that corporate action is coming soon enough on Solgold, after years of dicking around. My revolutionary battery stock gmg.v has incredible claims and incredible backing...Bosch, Rio, CATL people, WEF people even. I'm not in a hurry to buy any small copper mobs yet.
I’m afraid I can only spare £0.09 a day and I prefer to dollar cost average by buying every single day. I ignore the £5 per trade charge from my broker because that will be far exceeded when the market finally realises the value of this asset.
The economic contraction and worsening fears of recession that has caused copper prices to drop 30 odd percent since last March looks like it’s finally showing some bullish signs. Another good day’s trading currently just over 4%up at 3.60 from as low as 3.29 in July.
>>> Concerns of tight supplies in the long run are prevalent, with industrial players flagging increasing risks of shortages. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that the current low prices do not reflect the tightness in the physical market.<<<
Looking promising, with hopes that demand may improve amid the possibility that the Fed could slow its tightening momentum.
CB was wrong about a quick resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, but will be a bit happier to see copper rising. Looks promising.
* Trading Economics.com
Colin quoted once in an old podcast with Zak. “It’s better to go into negotiation with a strong market cap than apologising for a week one.”
I suppose having a poor market cap, could be perceived that we are at a dead end, with a lot less option to take the project any further with more of a need to sell, as any further raise now will have too much dilution. It would potentially put AA in a stronger position at the negotiating table, but as we will now be getting meaningful income contribution now from fairbride, which has been confirmed it has now gone into full production, so would assume that means they are now running the high grade ore through the plant, and not the low grade material to run up the plant they found whilst stripping off the overburden. So now, that wouldn’t necessarily be the case as we could self fund any further exploration. So not having a stronger market cap will not necessarily matter.
it’s a waffle theory at least and the only one I can come up with.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDHYISLK6QQ
If you can spare the time this 35 minute video from the oft-called ‘king of mining’, Ivanhoe’s Robert Friedland, is recommended viewing. Aside from being a fascinating watch, it has totally reinforced my belief in my copper plays. Dunno why this passed me by earlier in the year!
Maybe those tiddlers are Porvenerial/Ted changing tack and now, incrementally, putting his total returns from a lifetime of Investing in up a mountain in the middle of nowhere copper plays into xtr?
I want an account fee of 9p!
I've wondered this as well, is it just to get the SP moving to prompt buying/selling?
Zero. I have a number of shares in a Fidelity ISA. Fidelity periodically sell off £1-£10 of my shares (depending on the quantity I hold) to pay the holding/admin fees that are associated with my ISA account. Could these sort of transactions account for some/majority of the very small share volume transactions that we see?
An idle observation on the quietest of days: Often, related to any share on LSE, there are tiny transactions that seem to make no sense. With stocks where there is a much higher number of transactions this can sometimes be explained by a bit of housekeeping by brokers, rounding things off, etc. But on a lightly traded AIM stock like XTR? Today so far, half of the 6 transactions posted have been for a value of £10 or less. The most recent for about 10p.
Does anyone have any insight into the workings of the stock market that can explain these tiny transactions?
PLEASE ... don't anybody mention coded messages between traders. These days there are plenty of secure end to end messaging options that are far more effective than buying 1 share! If indeed that ever really happened.
Also Caravel are going to seek financing to build a mine, rather than sell, so their share price is significantly discounted on the basis it will be a long time to see value.
Just had a quick look at their annual report:
"The Company raised around $4.7M in a ($3.0M) placement and ($1.7M) rights issue to fund drilling, technical studies and project development activities. The Company continued to enjoy strong support from new and existing shareholders demonstrating confidence in the Company’s copper assets and a clear focus on progressing the project towards development"
"A major milestone was the delivery of a Pre-feasibility Study (PFS) and a maiden Ore Reserve Estimate for the
project in July 2022. The Ore Reserve (JORC 2012) is 583.4Mt at 0.24% copper for 1.42Mt contained copper (at 0.10% cut-off)"
Look at Caravel Minerals again, which we’ve often used as a benchmark here. Mcap AUS$92m, or about £50m. 5p in XTR terms, fully diluted. That’s for what - 1.4Mt Cu and $1.0bn NPV? So perhaps XTR would move to 5p plus 1-3p for African assets if similar figures were declared? Less any discount for a “CB factor”. As others have said, we just need a formal resource statement and value placed on it to get the next leg up.
Oliversydney, what do you expect CB to say when the company is deep in the modelling, working hard to confirm the size of the resources, possibly having off-the-record discussions with majors but unable to give any hints due to market rules? He has to stay quiet. Anyone who thinks this is because CB has lost faith in his own company or because it’s not worth shouting about is misunderstanding the situation. Or being mischievous.
Yep must admit Oliver I thought that was a bold statement for CB to make at the time, but I’m sure it was more wishful thinking than an educated view.
There is a certain irony about being bargain of the century back then, how much more of a bargain does it make it now the share price has drifted down, with odds on that most ‘investors’ are already positioned without decent funds available now, coming up to the silly season to grab the opportunity to average down.
Grrrr..
astute or lucky punters need not reply :-(
With Colins stocks you need to get in early and get out early. Probably the best way to manage to make a profit
It was not long ago he said XTR was bargain of the century when the share price was much higher. Also in an interview when the Russian Ukrainian conflict started he stated it would be over in two weeks which I distinctly remember. So I am now concluding he is all hot air which does not help as I have a large holding at a much higher price and really thought he was the real deal
It seems the next significant too good to miss once in a lifetime opportunity is commonplace in Colin World lol
Bird says today on Traders Cafe that the announcement for AFP is perhaps the most significant of his entire career. Similar SP as XTR yet could realistically hit 50p-100p+ if it was to come in and that could happen inside of 12 months.
Well, its related to Colin Bird, so probably African Pioneer is the best place to go. You are logged in to ADFN so probably best to use the Search facility.
Wrong chat kidda
'update from First Quantum looks very promising indeed, though still very early days.' have you got a link for that update?