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>> Tiny UTs have not put the SP down to where it is. Yes UTs can distort a daily close but are you really saying that the SP is heading lower because of occasional UTs ?
Lucky520 asked if the 10% share price on a specific day (as I quoted in my post) was down due to world events or the news release. I replied it was due to a small UT instead. It seems self-evident that if Lucky thinks the share price dropped 10% in response to news, that would give him a different impression of that news and the company in general than if the share price dropped 4%.
Combined with the near-constant complaints on here about Colin and attempts to play down the current massive disruption in the word economy in preference to a 'XTR is badly run' narrative, it can create a false impression, either accidentally or deliberately. Note we almost never get a small UT higher than the mid-price.
It seems to me that some people claiming to be shareholders are either consistently trying to damage their own investments by creating a distorted impression of the stock (which seems improbable), or have sold and are now trying to find someone to blame for their losses, or are trying to get a cheap buy price.
I'm investing a lot more time in Telegram now, which seemed to be an XTR forum for people interested in research, understanding their investment and having informed debates. LSE seems to have become a forum for people to complain that Colin is responsible for all their investment woes. Funny how they didn't complain about Colin when the share price was going up. How people handle adversity says a lot about their character.
Tiny UTs have not put the SP down to where it is. Yes UTs can distort a daily close but are you really saying that the SP is heading lower because of occasional UTs ?
https://twitter.com/Share_Talk/status/1555950642467946497?s=20
The company said subject to laboratory assays, all holes have intersected extensive zones of altered volcanics with trace, to locally weak to strong porphyry-related mineralisation throughout, and once all assays are received, the company intends to complete a maiden resource for the Ascot Prospect
https://www.share-talk.com/share-talk-weekly-mining-sector-news-round-up-saturday-6th-august-2022/
>> Was the 10% drop the other day due to the world problems.... or the news release.
It was due to the small uncrossed trade after close that was outside the MM official bid-ask. Actual drop based on mid-price was only 4%. There was another tiny UT on Friday that appeared to cause another drop but mid-price didn't change so that was actually no change. Try checking level 2 to see what is really happening - or check on Telegram where I post the level 2 information every day.
Seems like a few people are going to a lot of trouble, either via manipulated post-close trades or misdirection tactics on here and other forums, to paint a rather different picture than the reality. I wonder why. I assumed the latter was just frustration, but maybe I am being over-generous. Plenty of money to be made here by encouraging people to sell.
Then again, don't worry about what's going on with Bushranger over there.....soon it will be.....look over here, we have just acquired another prospect with huge potential to make you all rich and increase shareholder value.
He has actually said, they are looking at new projects. With what money are we buying these Colin? Because fair Bride revenue should be going going on phase 3 and getting BR sold.....no?
Just to add to the situation...lol
..... if we were now to declare talks with AA, like Colin had suggested.....would the SP be where it is now even with all the other economic and geopolitical problems?
I believe that it would be substantially higher but not as high as it would be without all the problems.
So i believe the majority of the drop is down to Colin.
Was the 10% drop the other day due to the world problems.... or the news release.
At this point, I think it is easier to agree to disagree. We all have different past experience and perspectives and will weight our decision-making accordingly. I don't think we are going to change each other minds on this topic so I will bow out gracefully.
"What you are saying in effect is that while the world economy is crashing down all around us and everyone else is suffering huge share price falls, we would have been fine if only CB had better communication skills."
I'm surprised you would come to that conclusion after reading my posts.
I'm not saying that at all !
"Of course world events are playing a big role here... but the markets negative perception of XTR has magnified the SP drop"
Agreed.
Its a matter of opinion if its 10/90 or 90/10 re world events v mismanagement of expectations .
I just give more allowance than some for the possibility of mismanagement of expectations.
"Yes, but last time it happened was there the same level of massive economic disruption? Was copper down 30%, was the whole index down 30%, were all the other small-cap miners crashing? Was there inflation, high energy prices, etc.?"
Nope.
External factors were fine, but CB's mismanagement of expectations v results was the reason for same type of drop. Actually, it was worse than now, as I remember the SP falling from 2.5p to 0.7p after poor results against forward guidance. I just bought more :)
To explain again, I'm not saying that that is 100% why its happened now, but maybe that COULD be playing a much bigger part than some think.
I think our 50+% drop could have been inline with the 30% drop in copper and aim generally if the market knew what the strategy was. Of course world events are playing a big role here... but the markets negative perception of XTR has magnified the SP drop. Whose fault is that ? It certainly is not the shareholders who chose to ignore previous history and take a chance on the original guidance regarding bushranger. Now that the quick "tie a bow on it" deal is off the table the SP has been hit harder than it may have been. I dont know what the strategy should be now. I'm concerned that Colin has previously thrown money at ill judged "opportunities... Kalingwa (or whatever it was called) and the diamond miner fiasco. I don't want Phase 3 to be a repeat of that. It is rare for exploration companys to make a go of things... why should Phase 3 be any different. Maybe we should bank the FB cash and see how things are when the world comes to its senses again.
>> LTHs have seen this type of drop before without any external reasons - and we know why it happened.
Yes, but last time it happened was there the same level of massive economic disruption? Was copper down 30%, was the whole index down 30%, were all the other small-cap miners crashing? Was there inflation, high energy prices, etc.?
Yes, you can't be *100%* certain that the world situation is responsible, but the alterative explanation seems considerably less likely. What you are saying in effect is that while the world economy is crashing down all around us and everyone else is suffering huge share price falls, we would have been fine if only CB had better communication skills.
"Do you really believe that all of the above is NOT having a massive impact on XTR?"
I think you have missed my point.
I'm not saying that isnt the reason for the drop, it may well be in some part, or large part or even the whole reason, but there seems complete dismissal that there is no other reason for the drop.
LTHs have seen this type of drop before without any external reasons - and we know why it happened.
I honestly cant say with 100% certainty why the drop has happened, and I don't think anyone else can.
You should charge for that Life advice Steve4077... although wrt poker I take my own counsel.... after the night I pulled the top hand early in a game (true story)..... unable to contain my excitement and keep the smile off my face I tried to hide it by taking a drink from my beer..... which I then snorted down my nose....... uncontrollably.... everyone on the table looked at me and folded......
Poker isn't the game for me ...lol
>> Steve... do you know what the current strategy is ?
Yes, I think I have a fairly reasonable idea based on the information on the many RNS and the recent annual report. I don't think it is spelled out very clearly, as the comms are not great, but its not too difficult to make inferences. Check my posting history. What is happening now seems to be fairly in line with what I predicted would happen based on the information available. Have patience, delay the deal, do some more drilling using the income from Manica, prove up more resource, wait for market conditions to improve, get a good deal. If I am wrong, we should find out at the AGM.
What do you think the strategy should be?
In regards to BR then I 100% agree.
My issue was when he was writing in his statements at TIR that good projects were hard to find due to the competition, money hard to raise (BZT - thanks Prickly for your informative posts on there) that he was saying at XTR how he was looking for further projects. A lot of money will be required at Manica and BR to further them along and I would prefer focus to remain at the current time on those projects. The last thing we need is for operational difficulties to occur at Fairbride then a placing to be required because shock/horror things didn't turn out as planned.
BTW I am not debating that CB has mismanaged expectations - I think it is fair to say he has. However, you have to be careful of the classic trap of correlation rather than causation. Just because Event B happens after Event A, it doesn't mean that Event B is caused by Event A.
For example, there is a strong correlation between ice cream sales and swimming pool deaths (seriously) but it doesn't mean that eating ice cream makes you more likely to drown. It's because hot weather is the cause of both.
In this case, it seems a lot more likely that world events is the cause of a general fall in small cap equities and has significantly disrupted XTR plans. I agree that we need a lot more information on how the latter has changed and we have the ideal opportunity in less than three weeks.
Steve... do you know what the current strategy is ?
I think the evidence that world events is playing a significant part is pretty overwhelming. Just look at other small-cap mining stocks. Many of them are down similar amounts during the same period. The entire stock market in which XTR is traded is down 30%. The Copper price is down 30%. The world is in recession. Energy prices are sky high. A major war in Europe. Highest inflation in the West since the 1980s
Do you really believe that all of the above is NOT having a massive impact on XTR? Or that CB should NOT adjust his strategy in light of those events?
I can understand that many may think that world events are responsible for the down turn here – and they may well might, be but many LTH have had similar experiences here before and that was due to results not matching CB’s overly optimistic narrative. Maybe some think the same thing COULD be about to happen again so have sold?
It’s interesting that many who have repeatedly acknowledged CBs ability to be overly optimistic, then ignore their own view and decide that the reason for the drop is not down to that which they have already acknowledged, but another reason/s outside CB’s control.
To be clear - I’m not saying the drop is not down to external forces outside CB’s control – it may well be, but the alternative view - that it could be down to CB’s own mismanagement of expectations, (something which we all know he’s done before), is a view that seems to be dismissed by many.
Even by those that have repeatedly acknowledged that he does this.
To avoid misunderstanding, I’m 85% certain that things will turn out OK here. That appears to be much more pessimistic then some who have had less knowledge of CB’s history - or those that choose to ignore it :)
It is imho perfectly acceptable for Colin to be playing the cards close to his chest when it was implied that a deal was close as Colin himself stated that he couldn't negotiate via the front pages. Now that the game has substantially changed does that still hold ? I don't think it should. Following Phase 1 and Phase 2, what do we have at racecourse ? Will shareholders be fully informed with a meaningful model that they can decide if it still aligns with their investment aim ? I agree we shouldn't waste energy on trying to control things we cannot change.... but extend us the courtesy of giving us the information so we can decide. The world has changed. The game plan seems to have changed. The market will assume the worse if cards are played close to the chest when the circumstances don't seem to warrant that.
Great post Steve. I agree with what you say but it unfortunately doesn’t stop the nerves when you’ve all in and waiting on the turn card that should have been dealt months ago! The slow dealer is bound to get a little stick!
I know people are getting angry, frustrated or worried, due to the share price or bad comms/ expectation management or world events that impact market conditions and XTR's room for manoeuvre.
I'm comfortable with my investment despite that. As Andy said, there is no issue with the quality of assets. Obviously I wish I had bought lower, but I made decisions based on what I knew at the time. I also wish I had money available now to take advantage of the share price, but I can't control that either.
Perhaps I could offer some extremely hard-earned advice from my professional poker-playing days. The only thing to focus on is making good decisions. Forget about outcomes, because they are outside your control. It sounds simple but it takes a long time to really get into that mindset. In poker, you can't control the cards, so there is no point getting upset if you lose. Your decision was correct - you were just unlucky.
I've lost a £5000 pot as an 800-1 favourite when the money went in. I've lost a £3000 pot when my opponent misread his hand, called by mistake and then got the perfect two cards he needed to win. I've taken multiple terrible beats in succession and lost £10k on the night, despite being ahead every time the money went in. I have been unlucky thousands of times, but I still finished ahead in the long term. Sometimes I was lucky too, but mainly its because if you keep making good decisions, then the money usually ends up with you.
I learned from experience to congratulate my opponent and move to the next hand. If I got upset (what poker players call 'going on tilt') about things I couldn't control, then I made decisions based on emotion rather than logic, which made the situation worse. I would cause tension at the table, which is bad for me because happy casual players stay longer and play more carelessly. If the table gets fractious, they leave. In summary, getting upset about being unlucky or looking back with 20/20 hindsight, or taking my frustrations out on others were not only a waste of energy, but actively damaged my chances of winning in the future.
This experience has helped a huge amount with investing. I am happy with my purchase decisions based on the information I had at the time. I didn't know there would be a major European war, or that China would go back into lockdown, or there would be a huge spike in energy prices, or global inflation, etc. so there is zero benefit to regetting choices I made before any of that happened. I didn't forsee the stock dropping 50% from the recent highs on low volumes, but then so have many other mining stocks. AIM as a whole is down over 30% in the same period. There is nothing I can about that except make good decisions based on the situation right now. Worrying about the past or ranting about the present is pointless. It doesn't help me.
I'll finish with a favourite quote from Macbeth.
"Things without all remedy should be without regard: what's done, is done"
Thanks NtM and Prickly
Hope to see you, and others, at AGM.
To be honest I only invested in miners and AIM just over 2 years ago - it's aged me!
Learnt a hell of a lot from so many on this board and still feel I've an awful lot to learn not just geology and mining but game theory, pyschology, timing investment entry and exit and how to manage illiquid investments.
We've sunk c£8m on BR and we've been told "it isn't a 10p porphyry aka £100m"
Most of my research is trying to assess the validity of this 10p statement. The opportunity and immediacy of Manica income was a surprise due to my inadequate research.
I've reasonable confidence that this "not a 10p porphyry" is probable and whilst this gives me a level of reassurance I'm still rather uncomfortable given current SP versus my average versus my exposure. This would be an unbelievable entry point a year ago and so much has been proven in this time and yet the SP is down c40- 50% versus the day after the announcement of Ascot discovery. I know because I topped up then :(
My biggest gripe is comms and expectation management and definitely not the quality of assets or the team on the ground.
Cheers
Butlerman, I think your nerves will be just fine, it’s not a cup competition, Colin did say it was in the premier league :-)