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BHP getting kicked out of Serbia might prompt them to look for other places to mine. I don’t know why SOLG just don’t get on with getting the gold they know is there out of the ground, they just raise money and drill more holes.
The diverse book (he means register but is too thick to understand the difference) argument is absolute tosh. All listed stocks have larger shareholders and insignificant ones, it doesn't really change what happens in the event of a takeover. It will go to the company that is willing to pay the most, as we witnessed very recently with Noront.
The diverse book theory is clown group think, like a lot of stuff on here.
The trouble with the perennial "diverse book" argument is that you are coming at it from different perspectives with different meanings of the word diverse in mind.
If I understand correctly, Quady had a poor outcome from an oil company that was majority owned by an unscrupulous family. Something along the lines that the majority shareholders then took it private at a low price and managed to get rid of the minority shareholders for less than fair value. So yes, compared to a stock where the majority shareholder has >40% control already, I can see what Quady is saying when Solg has several largish shareholders who each control between 5 and 20% of the company. None of them is really incentivised to give up their shareholding at less than what they perceive to be full value, and they are not all incentivised to work together. Is a buyer going to want to take control of Solg but still have Cornerstone and Nick Mather & Co still on the register with approx 25%, potentially causing a nuisance? So a low ball offer seems unlikely to get 90% acceptance when there are a few large blocks who will hold out for much higher.
I assume Addicknt and others are coming at this from the opposite angle that having a few largish holders each controlling between 5 and 20% each and cumulatively about 50% is not diverse at all but in fact very concentrated in comparison to a lot of larger publicly traded companies where even the biggest shareholders only control a few percent. You often hear of an activist hedge fund taking a stake of less than 5% and start throwing their weight around demanding spin-offs and seats on the board etc. So in that sense, an offer that is pitched at the right price will be difficult to defend against because there are only a small number of shareholders who need to accept it and you quickly get a significant chunk in the bag, which probably means the smaller shareholders like us will follow suit.
I think what I'm trying to say is, you're all probably correct. Solg won't be able to defend a takeover offer at the right price, however that price seems unlikely to be the low ball we all dread.
The problem for NM is not his current holding but the fact he doesn't have to cash to stand his corner in any form of fund raise. His executive influence has diminished and his equity position will be eroded over time i.e some time this year. Q, you say 'we are bought out, but no one can do this because of the diverse book'. So what happens if a deal is agreed and recommended by the board? (which is what I see happening) Your diverse book thing is and always has been, a complete red herring. Sorry.
You are entitled to complain as well Rich3r (not moan, i think moan is a less tactful word that implies aimless produce). I may have sought to offer a different view at times, one I've tried to keep a positive slant on whilst being mindful of potential traps.
I can only guess what Copperpot is referring to. If it's equity funding related then I'm not sure what difference this will have, other than to dilute Mather's stake further?
I suppose anyone who can answer my question probably goes some way to addressing my concerns:
Why, despite turning handsome free cash flow, are BHP not making us even a moderate offer, instead playing hold fast with their position and voting intentions despite not taking a hands on approach at board level at any point since acquiring Guyana Gold's stake?
Hi Bozi yes you’re right that I’ve been moaning for a long time about lack of progress - as I see it. Although I would argue that I’ve also been bullish when I felt it was justified.
Now if the likes of your good self is starting to have concern over your investment, that gives me concern too because I’m not sure I’ve ever seen you writing such stuff.
If someone had told me 5 years ago that our SP would still be stuck in the mid twenties, I’d have thought them madly pessimistic - and yet here we are!
I often disagree with what copperpot writes, but I sincerely hope that his assessment of March/ April time being the time for significant events here, is right. But I haven’t seen what he thinks is actually going to occur at this point?
The difference is Rich3r, you have been complaining for the last 5 years that nothing is happening quickly enough for you, unless the share price is going up that is.
For what it is worth i agree with you now. We've just seen 1/12 of the year pass without so much as a peep from the company. In a year when we need to achieve so much, that's not on. I'm talking about operationally by the way, not facilitating trading of the stock.
I'm developing significant concerns about my investment here now, concerns i hope to be proved wrong about, yet whenever i pop my head in it seems a case of "Uncle Nick still steers the ship... Barrick or Rio or AN Other... etc".
Red I can’t really see there being a ‘technical rise’. Only good news will haul this north imo. And the RNS machine appears to be broken again at Solg towers lol. But I mustn’t go on or else Bozi will tell me off for being impatient ;)
Good afternoon Bozi and DBW. My take is slightly different, although agreeing with much of what you both say. NM was always going to step down and be replaced with someone who could take Alpala forward. It just happened sooner than a lot of us thought. As you say NM controls directly or indirectly about 20% of all Solgold shares. So is the biggest shareholder. He can stop BHP or NCM mining increasing their percentage unless they make an offer for someone else's holding or buy directly on the open market. I don't see that happening. So we are left with two options.
Option one We are brought out, but no one can do this because of the diverse book. It would just be too expensive for a project that hasn't started. We start to construct and along the way someone buys us, when certain parts of the project are derisked and if we have a low price to debt ratio.
We get the CFP and construct Alpala. The financing is done in such a way that we slowly gain in share price while knowing our rough costs. We also have a contingency for cost overrun.
DBW - thanks but I was aware of all of that. I would also like to think he's aware of the dangers on the horizon and has options at his disposal but a lack of useful company communication leaves me unsure. Having defended him in the face of all sorts of criticism down the years (both constructive and less constructive), I'm not sure how i feel about those same shareholders relying on him whilst he has been shunted into a NED role.
Your worst case scenario is the best worst case I've seen. Unfortunately things could get much much worse than that if our hand is not played correctly in the coming months. Some may view that as a deramping comment (it's not and in any case i don't care). Mather may have his collective interest for want of a better phrase but lets not kid ourselves that he has control. There are a myriad of things that can happen pre AGM, and well, post an meeting where we lose him, Twigger and others, I'm not sure the reality bears much thinking about.