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Thanks for the clarification, Kitzie and sorry for my earlier misunderstanding.
But it was reassuring to go through the figures once more anyway, if only to clarify in my own mind but, hopefully, useful to others too.
It's great to see that we are all singing from the same hymn-sheet regarding potential revenues. And I concur regarding the end of year end mcap - I'd see 500m+ very likely, i.e. £7 to £8 minimum (five months is a very long time in terms of this pandemic and Novacyt's rapid development) and two to three times this figure by the end of 2022 when we are fully imbedded and the market beginning to see the longevity of all of this.
@Hillseeker,
mcap £500m by year end.....sorry I should have been clearer on the......H2 turnover will be £150m from all vendor points IMO.
For the H1 being £100m turnover, from £88.40m declared plus partners and overseas. IMO the £40.80m shortfall will be made up in PROmate openframe work sales to approved NHS sites.
We had an update first last year. My take is an update. This then leaves room ( perhaps ) to close the DHSC dispute before the half year results that were in september last year. The DHSC will still be a thorn in the side but there may be a hint in the update. Worldwide sales and an improved forward projection, ie a much improved 7 million a month revenue could be all that is needed. And an update on the saliva test.
Could be between 4 PM/5 PM today hopefully.
I would imagine the DHSC are covering their rear end. They have another contract that they want to close quietly.
Any settlement could have a non disclosure attached to give the DHSC some credibility.
@Saintsmith
Me throwing hat in the ring;
However, it was 30th July in previous years excepting last year when it was brought forward two weeks. They did confirm before the month end, they have a requirement to publish the half year and on the basis that GM and Mandy only returned back to work after holiday today its likely to be Friday or at very best tomorrow.
From my own point of view i don't need to see a H1 statement, as the data is already know for the H1; its either going to be circa £ 95m in the first half or £ 55m if they write off 100% of the DHSC. Either way they will smash this years revenue estimates.
What we really need to know is how the Saliva and LFT tests are getting on regarding validations and potential pipeline, any visibility on second gen Antibody test, what the position is Novacyt Inc stateside and of course the big elephant in the room; what DHSC are doing regarding the dispute and possible time lines - but this sort of detail will likely follow by separate up date and not with the H1 but you never know.
GLA
Thanks for clarifying, Steve. Thought there may have been some new development to raise expectations of a resolution.
Hey Johnny, NCYT have always maintained that they haven't failed on any part of their contract.
There is a lot of money outstanding and it will have to be sorted out at some point.
We have heard nothing yet of this being escalated to legal action and have to assume that a resolution is under way in arbitration.
I personally think the incompetent DHSC is simply playing for time. The bill will be paid when they need more product.
Ventura1, I don't follow the board that closely any longer. Has there been some news?
Johnny19. Have you just arrived from Mars ??
SteveV, why are you hopeful of a positive resolution with DHSC?
I took the 500m as the market cap.
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@Kitzie (ref. your 9:06 post)
I am all for positivity regarding this super company, but from where do you get these figures (500m+ full year)? Are you including DHSC?
The company has already announced first five months of H1 (only June remains undeclared), so we are pretty certain that H1 will be around the 50m mark. I cannot, therefore, see where you get 100m for H1, unless you are including some DHSC. And then, you quadruple the figure for H2 to give you an incredible total for the year of 500m. So, your H2 prediction is five times more than Novacyt's own forecast revenues!
It is important we stay realistic and to not artificially raise expectations, but if I am mistaken and you have something solid to back up your assertions, please do share these.
The company is saying 50 m for H1 based on 10m per month first three months (including the 10m UNICEF/Ukraine contract) and 7 m for the next three. They then assume H2 to be the same as H1. This forecast was made before the uptick in July infection rates, but Novacyt are discounting any DHSC/NHS sales anyway. One would have expected an upsurge in travel, however, but I suspect the company was being cautious at the time in assuming there could have been ongoing restrictions to travel over the summer. So, I think, it would be fair to guess that the 50m for H2 is overcautious.
We should break down H2 into Q3 and Q4
Q3 includes the summer travel (July-Sept) - the company is predicting approximately 8m per month - I think we could possibly see up to double this due to travel alone. The unknown is how much we are selling overseas (especially our biggest markets in the US and Germany) and to the NHS via the framework. (Perhaps this is what you are including Kitzie?)
Q4 IMO we will see revenues continue to beat forecast, as travel continues to open up for business, and then we go into the ski-season. The big danger is that the UK Gov no longer requires testing on entry to the country and relies on double vaccinations instead, but they would be fools to do so. [Remember, this time last year we had not even heard of the Alpha/Kent virus let alone the Delta/India variant.]
I believe the full year 100m revenue predicted by Novacyt will, therefore, be overshot on private sales alone by between 20m and 50m.
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What is unknown is the NHS/DHSC sales that could add substantially. Starting with the NHS, through the framework agreement. It is quite likely that Promate is running out far sooner than expected, so we could assume (with 300 of our Q16/32 out there) that substantial additional revenues could ensue, but this is anyone’s guess really, as we simply do not know. Equally, the DHSC dispute resolution could add substantially. If this is, indeed, limited to the 20m replacement costs, or less, tens of millions will be added to our war chest, but again this is a complete unknown.
We also have the Saliva test coming out later in Q3 which could see substantial sales if adopted in September for schools, but again, revenues for this should not be counted as in the bag, despite a predicted manufacturing capacity of 1m units per week. Ditto the LFT for antibody differentiation; significant revenues for vaccine effectiveness/herd immunity monitoring motoring could ensue, but are a complete guess for the time being. Revenues from SNPsig are also unknown at this stage, and very difficult to predict depending on national and international policies – I suspect that these will be more significant in 2022-23, once global surveillance begins to properly take shape, so I would not include in Q4 at this stage. [Novacyt is so ahead of the curve on this.] Finally, in Q4, we could see substantial Winterplex sales – including in the US. Just be cautious that these tests may not be easily transferable to our Q machines, due to more complex pipetting stages required, unless a Promate version is released they are likely to be restricted to full lab use rather than POC.
So, my bottom line for the year is 100m plus a very vague 20-50m additional travel, plus NHS framework (significant unknown), plus DHSC resolution (significant unknown). In the end it could reach as much as Kitzie’s 500m, but a lot of ducks would have to align for this to happen, and I suspect, Novacyt themselves do not know at this stage how things will pan out. They are simply getting all their ducks in line to take advantage of opportunities as they arise whilst maximising current revenues and building a sales force and management structure for a multibillion-pound, international, growth company of the future.
Sorry, if I have not added much. 100m is the only certainty, and not to be sniffed at. The rest is all upside, but unknown.
We patiently look forward to H1 results and possible updates on H2 predictions.
GLA
If NCYT tell us that the DHSC dispute is nearing a positive resolution, AND, currently sales are strong, AND they expect that to continue into next year, THEN we can expect a BIG re rate.
I am very hopeful all of the above will happen.
Saintsmith not Tuesday and I've been 100% up to now on this.
On a more serious note re kaeren recent find, appreciate its list price.
2592 divided by 96 is 27 dollars a go so even with distributer mark up we can presume Richard Leonard's statement(remember that) of ten dollars per test seems eminently achievable.
The forward statement will be more important than the H1 results...there are some massive partnerships out there for NCYT excluding what's going on in the USA and overseas......I hope the market responds appropriately.....fingers X
Last year it was the update before the results but either either as long as its friday. The update gives time to dot the I.s and cross the t,s
Is that you throwing your hat in the ring porky ?
Not had any specifics from drchris yet ;)
How do we know thats the date porky? Ive not seen any official date released
Friday 30th July 7.00am
Yep, H1 update b4 end of July.
don't count the days when this SP will rise, make the days count by doing proactive research on where they are likely to head.
IMO, H1 will be good £100m+ mark, depending on the value of DHSC....we should also get a good forward statement...H2 will be phenomenal, most partnerships will be in place bringing revenue here and overseas.....plus testing second half of year will be well above expectations.....IMO, NCYT will end 2021 £500m+
I too am topping up where funds allow , this is a crazy price , only a fool would sell at these prices .
I do feel foolish for not selling at £12 though so what do I know ;)
I do know that covid isn’t going away and we have more tests and products to market than ever before .
We are also ramping up staff in key areas here and abroad .
Patience, patience and more patience with trust in the board required.
Vaccine effectiveness and longevity requires antibody testing porks.
One of the more trusted twitter posters claimed he contacted IR, and was informed results out before month end. Let's see if he is just like the rest of the spoofers on there or not.