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Would it make a big difference if it’s Monday? As it will be done by then
If you come back and say to me that you cannot include the loss of the 60% Marstons share of their own brewing business as the value of the deal is over the current book price then no doubt Mr Taxman may have something to deduct as well.
All I am saying is I am a little bit worried and concerned if the deal is not concluded tomorrow as promised by the end of October, sometimes the market will not always react positively as it likes to work on expectation and in advance so I wish you all well for tomorrow an important day but nothing is always as it seems.
Looking at it another way Marstons owned a brewing business valued at £580m - will only own 40% ££232 leaving a loss of £348. For which they are paid by Carlsberg Uk £230 (as disclosed on the Marstons web) plus they also gain a 40% share of the Carlsberg share which is worth according to Giantsquid £80m (tbc) means Mars get on the books a total of £232 plus £80 =£312,000 (plus any future contingent payment) against an accounting loss of their 60% share worth £348m?
That’s a very informative post giantsquid!! I also really enjoyed reading this so a thank you for this! I couldn’t agree more that this is a great share to have within the hospitality sector! Let’s see what tomorrow and Monday brings!
Upon completion of the JV, market cap will have to reflect the net asset value of the Carlsberg Marston’s Brewing Company.
Market cap is currently just £295m!!!!
Upon completion of the JV, initial net proceeds from the sale of Marston's Beer Company into the joint venture with Carlsberg will be around £230 million. These proceeds will be used to further reduce the level of bank debt.
The deal valued Marston’s brewing business at £580m and Carlsberg’s UK brewing division at £200m.
Marston’s will own a 40 per cent stake in the joint venture
Marston's own 40% of the new company = 40% of £780m = £312m
Carlsberg own 60% = £468m
Marston's 40% (£312m) + initial proceeds from sale of Marston's beer company (£230m) = £542m
£542m divide by 660,360,000 shares in issue = £0.82p per share based on asset value alone - add to that investor sentiment and the share price could easily go a fair bit higher than that.
Let's not forget this JV will make Marston's one of the safest, if not THE SAFEST stock in the hospitality sector, a company that will be far stronger financially and far more capable of getting safely through the pandemic and booming once this is all over and the recovery can finally begin.
Investors looking for bargain hospitality stocks that have huge potential upside and are about as financially safe as they come will be hard pressed to find anything better than Marston's
We all know sentiment plays a part at times, any additional bonus news and we may all end up surprised. Got to be in it to win it.
Yes I am same I don’t know how much rise we’ll get but I’m just saying get on tomorrow as it will be Monday 100% latest
I personally don’t see this jumping up massively at all with the current climate as it stands. I think we’re be lucky if we see 55p on announcing the completion, unless there is something else to be announced as Fiona mentioned there might be a bonus. I think however in the long term this is a great investment. Who knows what tomorrow will hold and over the weekend!
Exactly this, Why would they mention it days before announcing it. They’re going to catch you out Supercharger which is a shame as you were pro completion before the CMA stood down. Seems a little odd to be betting against the market on both sides of the spectrum if you ask me but as I’ve said before and will say again, each to their own. You shouldn’t be letting others influence your investment decisions.
JV will be Monday 2nd Nov so announced tomorrow or Monday latest
Good luck all I don’t know what market will do but it’s defo Monday
@Supercharger, due diligence is taken in this response. Carlsberg UK are part of the Carlsberg Group and therefore acting on the UK business side not the EU side of life. This has already been approached by the EU but due to Brexit and other sector issues this was referred back to the CMA to deal with. The EU have already stated that they will not interject with this process as it's being UK dealt with.
Carlsberg actually announced yesterday not today that they are at ease with the figures and as for not mentioning the CMBC deal why should they? Carslberg have done an amazing job at introducing low ABV drinks to the market so this I see as a positive. I hope you find my response to your satisfaction and that tomorrow we'll see a brighter side to your comments. It was you who made me join the board rather than just watch. At first, you were always positive and now you seem negative. You not interested in Pedigree anymore>?
Another question - Do the EU from the Carlsberg side need to approve the JV - we know from the Marstons side this is not required with the CMA approval but what about a Danish Brewer? Do they need approval? They are also spending money on buying up a German brewer and so the EU may be worried about a monopoly and so they will not be paid £100 to pass go - just yet? No comments required from Yoyoma, Fairtrader and Barchild as we really need to discuss the wider picture and have a balanced discussion.
Interesting Carlsberg statement issued today?
Did anyone see mention of a deal being imminent? Perhaps with no other direction it is natural for people to suspect we are not over the line just yet and there could be a hold up, even the EU could not be bold enough to introduce more stimuli when clearly it is needed when the two major Countries go into lockdown.
The trouble with waiting till after the news is that you’ll be paying a premium, not getting a discount. We’re about to pretty much receive our entire MC in cash. It’ll be nearer or above 80p than 30p. A good run may well see a £ +
Your comments just ooze utter shyte. You know about as much as your so called insider.... I take it your other boards are quite so you come here for attention? Be away with yourself and get a hobby.
2Reinc -also remember the big number being the transfer of funds will be affected by the roe and currency movement to affect the timing. Whilst the euro has some strength the deal is more likely short term but if as the ECB has said extra devaluation or stimuli is required at today's ECB meeting that will affect the Euro fall against GBP and then the deal will become far more expensive. However will they sign off the deal now or later with Germany and France in lock down and the Uk heading that way and the price of money likely to get even cheaper going forward for Carlsberg to borrow should it be required at a cheaper rate? I am sure the share price will rise after the deal is signed but my problem is I do not know when that will now be? We are at the end of October already - almost. If we return back down to the late 30p's I will top up again then.
I have looked at my most recent posts and they are all reliable, even anticipating a lockdown in Germany and France. It is a shame some look past my comments and miss my points. Lots of opportunity out there. For my Marstons shareholding you will see that Barchild is one who does not want to know how many I hold and indeed some have preferred that I keep this private which I will now do.
The lockdown in Germany and France is a situation that they would not want to be in. Boris is trying all he can to avoid one but he might have to have one eventually unless this vaccine is ready as winter is coming and the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. Not my feelings here but the medical opinion. Carlsberg own figs released today perhaps you should comment on those as whatever I say will be criticised. Good luck with your own choices. Most shares are cyclical after all, and there are lots of choices out there now too. i.e. Even my banking shares have recovered very well recently on the back of some astonishing profits - so it always pays to spread risk which might give you some more conversation.
Well worth reading article in Guardian today re their 2021 good beer ,guide, rather than moaning to CMA this time they are arguing for much more help for brewers and pubs, a pleasant change of tack.
Whether or not it achieves anything is a moot point, but good to see it raised in these crazy lockdown days, I for one am regally fed up seeing/hearing the same old/same old on the news every day since March, as if we can not make our own minds up.
DarkArches & YoYoMa
You are both spot on & hours before he announced he sold his holding he was still posting "strong buy SP target 73p" or some such tosh.
I fear he posts so much that he forgets what he has said before, hence the confusion.
When the markets are particularly turbulent and the company concerned is about to release major, value enhancing news as is the case here, the decision may be taken to release the RNS after hours on a Friday for example, to give the markets time to digest the news over the weekend. I think that'll be the case here. RNS Friday after closing along with numerous press releases over the weekend which would attract a lot of attention. Then come monday morning, all eyes would be on Mars with big buys from the opening bell.
That's what I recall too YoYoMa, which is mainly why I'm querying him.
I thought he sold up shop at 50p last week and was only a few days back stating a "weak Sell"..... Perhaps his man on the inside is giving duff info (but then again an insider could range anywhere from gate guard to Tea lady)
@Supercharger Confused...are you saying you are holding on to your current stake? Or have you sold off your entire Marstons holding and are holding off buying back until a better price point ?
I'll join in your gentleman's agreement even though I'm no gentleman. Not much of a lady either -lol. But I am a woman.
So, Tuesday 3rd November, 70p.
Market is sad and gloomy today because of lockdown fears. I am guessing our government will strive hard against that. They don't want a second lockdown so they will try and pull something else out of the bag to get on top of the virus. I think they will follow through on an announcement about the plan for mass testing to start from the end of October- 500,000 a day was the target by then, ramping up to a potential 1 million a day by Christmas.
They have to do something to address confidence and to protect those at risk effectively. Or we'll have to throw away the book altogether at how the world manages debt! Otherwise this situation is totally unsustainable.
Very rarely have MARS ever posted outside trading times. Usually, Financial End of year reports. A major deal like this will want to be reported on a business day to get full media access and also widen the spread of the deal. On a Friday after hours, I feel this wouldn't get the same coverage as a mid-week major announcement and end the business week on an upward trend. However, if you work in one of the companies who am I to argue with. I am just hoping today as I have a packet of blue ribband on today.