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Amazing what they can do, holding off for another 20/30p drop before taking my shoes and socks off ..lol
Amones
As you know I would like to see more regular sales data from HCM. We will get the HY results on 28 July and then they will have an opportunity in late October/November to give us a Q3 update. The next update from Takeda is on 31 July so we wont get any advance insight. I suspect we will get an updated slide already in the corporate presentation showing in market sales which should be similar to Takeda’s reporting and the HCM consolidated revenue which will be royalty and production fees.
Being in the build out phase, my maths suggested we may see $80m of sales in Q2 from Takeda and total in market sales of $130m.
The EU will approve the MAA in July, and I have no idea of the JP timescale. The level of government payments in Europe means that sales may be slower to ramp up as national govts go through their price review / negotiations.
We should put a question to the HY results about whether they will provide a Q3 sales update.
following takeda results , hutchmed could have informed shareholders about first quarter payment from takeda, arising from fru*****inib global sales. also, anticipated annual earnings from fru*****inib global (specifically in usa) sales would have helped to maintain a stable share price. even now, it is not too late for releasing news about earnings as well as an update about approvals from european and japanese authorities.
Coming up soon as this sinks back to 300.
It will surely be boosted by the future approvals and product launches later in the year as well as the HY results.
AstraZeneca exec: Chinese medical innovations benefit patients globally
China is a base for developing country markets for AstraZeneca. Wang said that reality gives the company an edge in understanding such markets well and knowing which countries to begin with when Chinese enterprises kick off their plans to go global.
"We usually recommend they begin with big countries that are also very friendly to China. Many such countries, such as Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Mexico, have populations of over 100 million, which translates into substantial market demand," he said.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202405/15/WS6644124aa31082fc043c7293.html
The announced durable response is better than the data shown in the corporate presentation.
The product comparators in that presentation are on different metrics so not sure what the relative performance is….Only 1 is approved in China and Sovlep is much superior to that, hence the breakthrough designation and faster review. Web searches revealed that the average approval time in China is 10 months for BTD vs 16 for standard - data was 2019-21 with stated objectives to accelerate further. This is inline with the statements made in the FY results call….time to start looking for an international partner.
Still a CK appointee as Chairman so we cannot expect much change to the strategy.
Talking of volatility lol, at least the pull backs in UK are on lower volume..
China is on the up too, with Hang Seng approaching 20,000 if it can push through we see it join other bull markets around the globe..
It may be best to let sleeping dogs lie in this case….there are plenty of Biopharmas with HK and US listings with no UK listing…and if they do a review it is more likely to result in a de-listing in the UK than a move to the main board.
The upside for investors is likely less volatility, driving the price down to unrealistic levels would be difficult as backstopped by FTSE trackers.
Its also worth remembering, AIM is not cheap either especially for overseas companies - HCM will be paying a minimum of £500k p/a, that would be a bare bones quote without PR which HCM have in all three locations.
Another upside could be a higher valuation, this is not guaranteed of course but given small free float likely imo.
The London Stock Exchange has a fee calculator for listings.
For a £3bn company there is an admittance fee of 700k and annual fee of 168k (118k on AIM).
There will be additional fees to FCA, legal work and administration costs, so probably around £1m to move and additional 75k pa.
Not material to the Group but also not insubstantial when considering the needs of some additional investors.
That is the downside amones, its very expensive and would add another layer of bureaucracy to their workload.
That said, things are different now with a change of strategy/management, it has to be tempting being so close.
Moving to FTSE 250 list was discussed in the past.
2 -3 years ago, I had emailed the company asking if the management was considering such a move. I had quoted the advantages often discussed on this forum, such as getting wider publicity and attracting investments from major funds. Mr Hogg, then CEO, had replied that the company was aware of the potential of such a move, but they had other priorities. Is it correct, moving to the main market would include expensive administrative affair?
Indeed, back to being the largest AIM stock….(not a position that has ended happily for many incumbents)
Not sure there are many Pharma peers within the FTSE100 and even less convinced that HCM is a peer of GSK/AZN. Its peers (maybe up to US$10bn are really found in HK/Shanghai and for the more internationally focused Nasdaq. A small number also exist in Europe.
It would mean joining their peer groups here in the UK, Astra and so on.
Joining the FTSE may also be seen as prestigious and quite an achievement, it also opens up a whole new world of investors too, funds that cannot buy AIUM listed companies.
Echo Lauders comments on a d v f n, really hope these announcement help additional patients.
The main listing has been moved to HK….so it would further restrict eligibility within the FT100.
We should be careful about wishing for the AIM listing to change as it may mean no UK listing!.
In other news, the two pipeline announcements both seem encouraging and in line with disciplined prioritisation. They always wanted to take Surufatinib into pancreatic cancer…..and a combination is a positive way forward atleast in China.
The second announcement about 306 was indicated in their latest corporate presentation as a new pipeline entry.
I do wonder if with funding less of an issue we will see the purse strings loosened on the earlier stages of pipeline development.
Perusing the FTSE table on where some of my holdings currently reside, surprised to see Hutchmed only 30 points away from FtSE100 auto entry.
Some index funds will be unable to buy HCM due to AIM listing, perhaps a move to the main segment would be in order
HCM 119/120
https://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php
Yes amones, one and the same.
HCM will be fully grown up when it needs to decide its approach to returns to shareholders…..assuming their plans come about that should be the 2026 financial year.
That is assuming they have not spent any spare cash on adding to the pipeline (either by expanding the research, in-licensing or corporate M&A).
Cash burn is reducing - which means they should have several hundred million USD to decide what to do with. A nice problem to have.
The figures for a dividend are HKD1 / 10p/12.5c 850mhkd / 85GBP / 105USD.
ss aka hcms, agree with you. it’s been good two to three consecutive weeks for hcm. hopefully, we are approaching towards the brighter end of the tunnel. last two years had been rough ride for the long term shareholders. over the other side of world, experience of investors who joined during hkse listing of “lucky” 0013 has been not so pleasant either. in spite of the recent progress, friday’s closing sp is well behind the listing price (?hkse40).
i was reading recent posts on adv.n from 1jat (?a.k.a jatw). the company is cash rich and a dividend of 10p per share/ hk$ 1 is possible, provided the management wishes to express their gratitude towards the shareholders. however, the company has passed a resolution in its agm giving right to the directors to buy back the shares. which is better, buy back scheme or a first ever dividend?
takeda’s financial figures (fru*****inib sales) are very encouraging. is hcm obliged to release a statement quoting the actual payment /profit resulting from fruq… golbal sales ? that should help shareholders to understand the actual profit from that source.
thanks to jatw for the informative posts.
What a nice way to end the week! It reminds me of the good old days back in 2010-2015 when we often ended a week with a litle surge like this. And whereas in October 2022 we needed a five-fold increase we now only need to double. Highly achievable. GLA.
SS AKA HCMS
Got that, thank you.
The JPY 10.1bn is the Takeda full year number (to 31/3/24).
It is approx $65m taking off the 2023 sales of $15m gives Q1 24 sales of $50m
All numbers approximate as I dont know what exchange rate Takeda has used or what HCM will use when they come to report the numbers.
Link to the presentation:
https://www.takeda.com/investors/financial-results/quarterly-results/
Open the presentation rather than the announcement and See slide 41.
Are you sure that the 10,1bn HPY revenue isn't the quarterly number and from approval in november?
Just seen it, added another 3% rise, volume too.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/0013.HK/
Thanks 1pencil
Just a reminder that HCM will use a more stable USD exchange rate than Takeda and will also have production fees in revenue. The Q4 production fee was $5 of $15m sales, that would scale to $17m in Q1 but with limited profit impact.
The royalty is all profit, so $7.5m in Q1.
There could be additional milestone payments for US sales later this year but we don’t know what those triggers are (100m? 500m).
SP jumped another HK$ and looks like 340p to start on AIM