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Watty
Thank you for that reply and I think people are just getting edgy(me included) like you say a lot of people are looking for this as a nest egg.
Apologies if I offended you:)
Hi BR.
Not a reply to your post BenR I was replying to post 14.34 today. Agree this topic has been discussed before, many times in fact. Nearly 3 years for me. And no T/o has occurred yet.
And I have been burnt here on aim with an oil and gas share. The CEO’s tried and failed to buy out another company by targeting sh’s. It was easy to know this because those sh’s had to notify the market. The company I invested in (the one attempting to buy shares) dived. The buy out, if that was what it was, failed.
So done my research on T/o’s and realised this is not unknown. Bod have tactics they can use to fight off t/o’s. So I sold.
That’s why I researched SB. (NCM) which Tells me any underhand or hostile tactics will not come from them. Share holders of the company they recently purchased, were given a good package. So I am chilled.
The reason I say sometimes ‘put your shares in a drawer’ is because emotion can cause any of us into a knee jerk reaction rather than thinking through the fundamentals. So hope you haven’t taken offence.
P.s. those with bank shares or Ggp will have to be patient I think for a while. Hence-my tongue in cheek remark. But like all shares. They go down but up when economics change. Exactly what Ggp shares will do. So GL
On a personal level I think it’s amoral for posters to try and persuade s,h’s to part with their shares. There are a lot of share holders here who do not have a large pot invested but which could provide them with at minimum, a comfortable life at some point.
Absolutely, Hydro. The size of Havieron will bring us to the dance, the economics and copper will bring home the prom queen.
Even with avg grade of over 8g/t (wow!) the Brucejack (Pretium) AISC still seems to float around USD 950. I’m sure Newcrest can improve on this in time, though this will involve that pesky (significant) capex which BiggL says is not required.
In simple terms, $1 earned at Brucejack equals $1.60+ at Hav based on today’s copper spot. Premium premium ounces…what’s that Hydro, 40m you say?!
The problem with BiggLes is that there are that many stories and he just keeps coming out with them. Somebody needs to rip his parachute.
GLA
Thanks for putting BiggL back in his box Texlax!!!
BiggL, the figures you give throughout your post are hugely misleading based on incorrect data. You’re using Pretiums own definition of resource estimate (10m oz) which they state is not entirely economic. Why did you not used their proven + probable resource estimates of 4.2m oz? This is even the figure Newcrest and Pretium use…
Of course Brucejack has great exploration potential.
Brucejack has no copper, and you again fail to understand the economics of Havieron.
Why do you not mention the Brucejack AISC well over USD 1,000, which even takes into account the silver credits?
Watty
I presume the second half of your message was for my benefit!
If so I thank you for that and I can only presume you have never been burn’t on Aim ! If so well done I believe most on here probably have and even with as much research you can do there are some very dodgy CEO’s!
Not calling SD dodgy, me personally I think he is putting a great team together, but that being said this is still AIM and anything can happen!
Good luck and I am dreaming of a gold Christmas
@BiggL
Let's take another scenario
From all of the assays received back we could reasonably calculate that there are 30 Moz at Havieron.
With an AISC of 643 USD we could value that at 1000 USD per ounce.
This would make the 5% of Havieron worth 1.5 Billion USD
See by using available figures we can all come up with ridiculous numbers, however, I believe mine to be less ridiculous than yours.
Good post BB. I agree. This is getting to be boringly repetitive. The old old arguments just before news. With drill results, f.s, updated MRE, jv results, all due within weeks, genuine investors will not be surprised about this discussion today.
For those genuinely confused.com. Either put your shares into a drawer for 12 months, or sell and buy some bank shares. They are on the footsie 100, aren’t they? So should be safe right now??????????????????? Or is gold safer. I’ll leave you to ponder. (That is a joke by the way)…….
Oh fantastic are you back again BiggL? Let me ask my question again then (5thtime), are you a GGP investor?
@BiggL
Let's take another scenario
Sa
NP. Great first post. Congratulations!!!!!
One day soon you will disappear BiggL from this website, because you will no longer be able to show your face, due to the embarrassment you will feel.
Not again, I thought we had put this discussion to bed a few weeks back.
More subtle negativity being fed into the BB.
The only people in favour of this option would be short term traders, anyone truly "invested" in GGP knowing what we have and what could be to come would not want this to happen.
Spot on Dip, no way for SD to recommend a sale price until he spoke with NCM as a minimum, anyway they have first chance on any bid, On top of that SD has no skin in the game until he buys those 5000000 options so he makes no money from a low bid so for me no recommendations under 89p with 70% on top. He wants to be a miner, he is still a young guy (not like me) and what's better than mining a project for 40 years plus any finds in the interim to play around with. Must be thousands of guys wanting to be in his position and to manage future prospects. My buy out is 144p with a 70% uplift if anybody wants to know. Ciao DM
Dip666 @13.14 - "As for a potential 5% of Havieron offer, personally I can't see an offer materialising until after the FS if one does indeed materialise".
Good call. I hope it will fall into Q3/4 of CY 2022 personally because of the time it will take to prove up all these drills into meaningful resources. At the moment we have a lot of ounces that have yet to be converted to an inferred resource as a result of all the drilling. We currently have only 1.7moz "inferred" and 1.9m oz "indicated" but the cut off for drilling was February 2021 so nearly 10 months ago.
In terms of "Probable" resource this amounts to only 1.6m oz at the moment. A great start but not enough to fully negotiate the 5% on.
Companies value "inferred" resources quite a lot lower than "measured and indicated" resource and that in turn is lower than "probable" resource (we currently have only 1.6m oz in this category). We currently have absolutely nil on the "proved" resource category which would give us the highest value per ounce.
https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/GGP-Growth-Update-Final.pdf (Slide 25 refers)
So we will be in our strongest position to negotiate on the 5% once a lot of the drilling is converted to "indicated" and "measured"; and then onward to "proved".
Because of delays at the lab, which have been ongoing for most of the year, we are yet to see the emerging size of the giant that is Havieron. This in turn is likely to put a brake on any meaningful negotiations with Newcrest until Summer 2022 I would suggest though hopefully the upgraded MRE will be a good start to kick off very early preliminary negotiations from Feb through to June.
We must not forget the copper as well as this will be a valuable resource for bargaining.
In terms of the figures, I have seen some analysts coming up with a figure of some $200/oz for good quality "measured" gold resources in safe jurisdictions with low transport costs. "Inferred" resources on the other hand have been quoted at a quite a lot below this, so it is important to get our resources moved up the confidence chain as quickly as possible. SD has a massively important job on his hands atm.
No probs Josh, it's why I like to keep notes - easy to check back on these things and quickly read through when reviewing my investments :-)
You can also listen to it under Q15 under the Q&A tab on their platform:
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/ggp-investor-update
Personally, having observed Sandeep/NCM long enough now I don't think they'll resort to unsavoury methods as both himself and their General Exploration Mgr. Fraser have been very vocal about partnerships and being open to be approached by companies for potential projects, one of their three pillars of growth I think I recall from Diggers and Dealers in August.
Also, Sandeep seems to be very much focused on using real world business metrics and methods to assess business decisions around M&A and assessing strategical decisions around profitability/ROI etc. vs an approach of 'ounces for the sake of ounces' etc.
As for a potential 5% of Havieron offer, personally I can't see an offer materialising until after the FS if one does indeed materialise. Again, I do feel Sandeep will be looking at this in terms of a longer ROI aspect along with a potential for an offer for the full 30%, so not so sure either is a given - although definitely can not be ruled out. Personally, I'll just be focusing on the results on Wednesday evening and look forward to an updated MRE in Feb 2022 if not before :-)
Also given our biggest II currently holds about 5% anyone interested in forcing a buy out is going to need to buy several ****tonnes of shares
After everyone has got over the shock and ****ed themselves, the offer would be doubled to 38p ,how many would vote to except that 30% ,offer increased to 50 p, another 21% agree ,buyout completed at a huge discount, this is only a scenario of course.
Welsh - Best response i've seen yet. :)
I gather from the bits I can see that the numpty(ies) are pushing the SD mention.
Well, anyone can make an offer - that's true. But to actually achieve a successful buyout, a lot has to happen first.
If our numpty (or any company) tried to make an offer now, based on an increase in today's price, I'm sure we would all hear SD laughing from the UK. I can just imagine him saying (in between guffaws of laughter) "yeah right now duck off and come back when you have around a 30% holding and can demonstrate enough investors support so I can actually take this seriously. Oh, and if you can achieve that all at today's price I'll eat the whole next drill core".
This ain't Tesco - you can't just buy all the shares.......
Agree Josh, t/o is our highest risk to shareholder value at the moment. So sp is relevant to medium and long term holders as it dictates the probability of an offer and the value of an offer. Of course, I do not want that to happen and focus is given to the plans and budgets that Greatland are still executing…..LTHs want to be around for mining and production sales.
GLA genuine investors - TFG
Thanks Dip!
It was a question put to him during the PFS release InvestorMeet Q&A webinar, excerpt from the transcript I created below :-)
*Thank you Shaun, I’m turning to Mark P's question - the presentation makes Greatland Gold look very attractive - what are the chances of a takeover and would one be welcome?
Well it was intended to you know to be attractive so that's good, but the look, I think when I think about, uh our share price and Havieron itself - the you know, the challenge for me and for the Greatland team is that our narrative to the market is understood, well received and that we're able to grow Greatland as Newcrest grows, you know Newcrest as - all right sorry, as Havieron grows - every day you know there's nine rigs spinning on this site - adding information you know giving us better understanding of the ore body, unlocking value giving us you know a better insight.
As to the future, so you know the challenge for us is to continue to grow Greatland, because if we're unsuccessful in that - at some stage the hammer will fall and someone's going to take this asset off our hands- you know you don't find world-class assets in world-class jurisdictions being developed on a low capex, low-risk profile often.
This is a precious jewel which we're fortunate enough to own and develop so I think, our risk of our share price risk is asymmetrical - if we're that - if we're unsuccessful at delivering that narrative to the market our bear case is that takeover comes and we get the 35-50-70% premium and we're taken out.
Yeah I like to think the bull case is you know at least a theoretically unlimited upside in the share price as we fully unlock Havieron and look to leverage that platform for further financially disciplined growth - so that's the way I look at it you know, we are immature, we have a massive growth profile and every company in the sector wants a growth profile and that's all Greatland is right now.
At these ridiculous prices I personally see us at high risk of a buyout - why wouldn’t a potential predator, why would they wait to end up paying much more? Let’s hope we have more than 1 interested party in buying us out eh… GLA