Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Can anyone help
I have done a lot of reading on this one ahead of Q2 on Friday. Amazing that New York sports book only opened in Jan this year !
The US opportunity looks huge. Why would this company not want to join others and joint lots on New York ? Seems a no brainer !
For those who may have missed it, this is from the InteractiveInvestors website this morning:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/
8.48am: Gambling shares on the rise
Gambling group shares are bucking the downward trend, on talk that the government's white paper on the sector could be delayed until after the Tory leadership contest and possibly watered down under a new prime minister.
Whether that is the case or not, Entain PLC (LSE:ENT) is up 3.65% and Flutter Entertainment PLC (LSE:FLTR) has climbed 1.6%.
Is it the current inflationary / cost of living crisis and stock market gitters
or
Is it th waiting game of the pending USA Mediation
or
Is it the double jobbing and Lack of leadership from top Management,
that's causing the continual decrease in share price.
Shareholders are experiencing a deficit in hope or optimism for the future
Any informed reassurances would be most welcome, dare I say deserved, at present
Charlie, you wouldn't have an easier question to pitch at me, would you? The wonderfully effervescent market in gambling stocks from March '21 was, in hindsight, as OTT, as the current prices are downright pessimistic. The current market also stinks for practically all shares. That said, I consider that the gloom around US gambling stocks in grossly overdone.
The problem, imo, is a combination of uncertainty & a refusal by most PI's to believe any promises of 'jam tomorrow'. They're frightened by the enormous sums being spent on advertising & promotion to attract customers. MGM/Entain say they expect positive EBITDA (real profits) sometime during '23, saying that they're spending an average of less than $300 for every long-term punter they're signing up.
As always, I go back to hard numbers; The average US "Hold" (profit on turnover) is 7%, meaning that once the punter wagers $4,200, the bookie will have won $300, recovered his acquisition costs and moved into profit. $4,200 equates to $81 a week, or $16 a day, if you bet 5 days per week. IOW, relative peanuts for a serious fancier of the NFL or thoroughbreds.
Therefore, I'm expecting cash profits of hundreds of millions a year quite quickly, with a valuation of 10 times EBITDA, meaning a capitalisation of several billions. But, realistically, it's going to be two years until early '24, when we get the full '23 numbers and the analysts can choose a multiple.
In the meantime, we'll have to deal with the Gambling White Paper and the Foxbet arbitration result, neither of which will do anything for the SP until we get clarity and the current fog clears. I regard this as an opportunity to buy more at prices which, I hope, will seem laughably cheap in two years time - but, but, but, I have been wrong before. Isn't that the fun in life?
Gewillia, I noted your March 2021 post on potential valuation of Fanduel and Flutter, when the market had peaked with DKNG then trading at 35 times turnover, and Fanduel had revenue of $1.1bn for 2020. It's a different world today, but with Fanduel revenue of $2.5bn for 2022, I'd be interested in the valuation you put on Fanduel and Flutter now.
Hello Gewillia, the fact that Fox Corp interprets the terms of the option agreement that is different to that of Flutter suggests to me that the terms are wishy washy, not well defined as it should be.
However, the outcome of the arbitration is not as important as a clear resolution of the dispute, so that the more important business of listing the Fanduel franchise in an IPO can begin.
Judging by the valuation being currently afforded to Draftkings - the only listed pure play on-line sports betting business - I can't help but think Flutter has missed the boat somewhat, with the peak valuation recorded in March 2021.
Unlike Draftkings, Fanduel has a clear path (so said Flutter's management) to generate positive earnings by 2023.
I'm not a betting man, but I wish you good luck on your bets on Everton FC and Liverpool FC.
Cukkas, that's a really interesting March article from 'frontofficesports'. It's obvious that Foxbet are spending no money on their US operation and at 1% penetration, excluding Nevada, the business is worthless. This makes me wonder if the only reason they came into the FanDuel deal at all was to get the option to buy 18.6% cheaply and then flip it to FLTR later at future market value. That might explain why there's no settlement and it's going to arbitration. We don't know the wording of the Option Price Clauses, but given that Exercise Price is absolutely central to any option agreement, I'd be astonished if FLTR's lawyers agreed any vague wording that gives Foxbet room to seriously argue that they're entitled to buy at an historic and way-outdated number. I have, however, been astonished before at the seeming incompetence of highly-paid advisers to plc's, so that means nothing.
I've no idea of the extent of Fox's UK operations, but I do see adverts on ITV Racing and presume the company is ultimately owned by our dear friend, the lovable Rupert Murdoch. So there is money there to buy and hold an expensive 18.6% of FanDuel, though whether they'd want to do that for a junior-partner's sleeping investment, who knows?
I remain a very firm holder of FLTR, having bought in as a believer in the USA as transformational to any UK bookie plc who teamed up with the right local partner. The American tail is now well on the way to wagging the Irish dog. 37% market share is marvellous. Meantime we have to deal with the Gambling White Paper, which is bound to be accompanied by a media explosion of horror stories relating to problem-gambling. All of which is bound to affect the SP until we know exactly what is contained in proposed legislation. I cannot see HMG hobbling any business which provides not only so much employment in their own and the horse racing business, but also pays enormous amounts in taxes. Markets hate uncertainty, which may well extend beyond the next election, so this could hold the price back for some time.
Meantime, fingers crossed for DraftKings results and if we do see a FanDuel float in New York, after the arbitration is completed, then you could well be spot-on about the SP returning to £150. Of more importance to me, at the moment, is the £50 I've bet on Everton FC appearing in the Championship in August. That and Liverpool FC adding just one more piece of silverware to the cup they've already won would make this season a truly grand one.
Finally, it's good to see "Sain@Vision" in this column. I hope you're well. Fond memories of Intu.
Today's results continue to highlight the importance of Fanduel, which should grow from nil in 2018 to become the largest division of the group in 2022/23, accounting for about a third of total revenue. This is before two large potential online-spots markets - California and Florida - are yet to open up.
In the short term, there are two uncertainties facing the company: the UK government's white paper on gambling, and the arbitration case between Fox Corp and Fanduel in June (https://frontofficesports.com/fox-bet-struggles-amid-ownership-dispute-and-poor-reach/) which Flutter is odd on to win according to the company.
In two days' time, if Draftking's result on May 6 is positive, then the read across to Flutter will mean we'll have seen the bottom of it share price, and it should be able to climb steadily back to the 15000p levels or more.
As someone who likes sports betting I had a tough 3 months which covers this quarterly period which is why I am convinced the figures will be decent. I was planning to buy back in yesterday in anticipation of good quarterly figures but as mentioned earlier the Gambling Commission’s increased protocols and regulations due to be announced in June prevents this from taking off.
The huge potential of the US market is why this is my 2nd largest holding......I wish it wasn't :-(
There will be no M&A activity until after the UK Gambling white paper and even then, who would be big enough to bid? A benign white paper would give a significant bounce though.
Tomorrow's trading announcement needs to be MUCH better than 2 months' ago figures.
I'd be a massive buyer at these levels if I wasn't already in for too much!!!
I too also held these shares & dropped out at around £90.
The SP MA keeps dropping & the SP has had a few sharp drops since last year.
Gambling regulations will only get tighter where there is a problem with addiction which in turn reduces turnover & profit. The only way to overcome that issue is to have more brands & products but there is a finite number of people that gamble & regulators can make the arena a smaller playing field.
Good times have gone for this share. OK if you want to play the weekly £3 PS catch on short term trading but at £80 PS share there are better options elsewhere.
I have held Flutter shares in the past and I am glad I sold my shares at £130 per share. It’s always a share I have on my radar but with news that the Gambling Commission are going to imminently announce new protocols to protect ‘problem gamblers’ I think it’s clear further bad news is imminent for all gambling firms which will hit revenue and profits. As a result I definitely wouldn’t want to be buying this share right now.
However… I do expect decent quarterly figures to be announced on Wednesday but until it’s clear what impact the new regulations will have on the business buying back in here will have to wait.
Surely at these days, greatly reduced share price , Flutter itself must now be in the Parade ring, as a potential Runner, for a Take over Target.
The only Questions are who is Large Enough to do the job and What Value / Share Price would be marked on the Card.
It maybe the reason top executives have been filling their pockets recently, buying shares and raising their salaries, all in anticipation of such a take over bid
The USA market potential is the huge attraction for such a transaction
Anyone agree ?
I don't know if today's sharp fall in the gambling sector has anything to do with Goldman's downgrade:
Goldman Sachs cuts Entain price target to 2,100 (2,250) pence - 'buy'
Goldman Sachs cuts Flutter price target to 14,900 (18,000) pence - 'buy'
https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/
Bought in today but certainly dissatisfied wearing my punters hat .Their in play betting and graphics are woeful especially cricket and quite often have no betting at all on some televised matches
Bet 365 seem to have a much wider range and better offers They do really need to up their game
I agree, I'm too not surprised to see the relatively poor results but I'm surprised by the reaction in the stock market. The non-US business, with the exception of Australia, is not the exciting growth story for Flutter. The jewel is the Fanduel business in the US. In the USA, the online sports betting results are much better than expected, as stated in the RNS below.
I just averaged down at 9300p, having been filled my GTC buy order at 1000p.
The FanDuel brand
The FanDuel brand continues to resonate strongly with sports bettors. We have the leading share of voice in the market, with a focus on ensuring high levels of brand visibility throughout the year, not just during seasonal peaks. We have recently added and/or extended several key partnerships, including the NFL, NBA and with Pat MacAfee, locking in important assets for multiple years. We invested over $1bn in promotions, sales and marketing across our US business in 2021.
These competitive advantages have enabled us to consolidate our combined overall leadership position in the US online market, a market which has grown by over 120% since Q4 2020:
• Our sports-betting share in Q4 was 40%6
• Our online gaming share in Q4 was 20%6
• Our overall online market share in Q4 was 31%6
This leading revenue share is moving FanDuel closer to a position of profitability. In 2021 FanDuel became the first large scale online brand to generate a positive in-year contribution from sports betting and gaming in the US. FanDuel generated contribution of £9m ($14m) in 2021, with the positive contribution from more mature states (such as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Illinois) more than offsetting the material investment in large states newly launched in 2021 (Michigan, Virginia, Arizona and Connecticut).
Encouragingly as we expand into further new states, we are seeing faster adoption rates for online sports betting. This results in bigger initial losses in the early months post a state launch as we acquire more customers. However, when combined with better retention rates and our product mix advantages, we now expect new states to generate positive contribution after 12 to 24 months post launch, in contrast to the 18 to 30 month guidance we provided in 2019. Such guidance excludes a higher tax state such as New York.
Based on our current expectations relating to the timing of new state regulation in 2022 and 2023, we remain confident that our US business will be EBITDA profitable in 2023. The timing of regulatory developments and new state launches can be difficult to predict and any variance to our expectations across these two years could affect the timing of profitability being reached, particularly if an unexpected large state such as California launches in 2023.
Our online sportsbook is currently available in 14 states following successful launches in New York and Louisiana in early 2022. In New York, we have already acquired over 400,000 new sports betting customers since launch.
Not surprised to see poor recent results. As a keen sports punter I have to say in recent months I have been having a lot of success with my bets. It’s not always like this by any means.
Flutter is one share I follow closely. Huge amount of value lost on this share in the last 6 months which is making this an appealing share to buy. The uncertainties of UK gambling due to the gambling commission and the nanny state wanting to protect problem gamblers is a real issue for investors. Talks of limiting people to £100 a month are ridiculous and problematic. But the potential for growth is enormous as sports betting, poker and casino thriving and with many American states legalising sports betting there is enormous growth in this sector. Definitely not a share I would want to hold right now but if the UK gambling commission back off and stop throwing obstacles in the way then this will rocket.
A lot of short sighted investors, I think this is a brilliant investment. But then again I invested in CBX and SYN so I clearly know nothing. What a crap month I am having.
Company is growing but profits down - not impressed but we shall see what market thinks.
F/Y results due soon 1st March tues GLA
Got it wrong
Roll on monday
Dkng down 20% market just dont them results
106 paid best i could do
Expecting further fall tomorw Dow to a hit tonight , Paddy Power offer 625/1 on 3 no's selection on Irish Lottery , nice
Possible topping up tomorw on my betting slip for sure , sp odds under £104 , that tax is a thorn though , tomorrows headlines Ukraine weighes heavy on markets