I really don’t think the share price has much medium term downside and maybe not short term either - all due to intrinsic value BUT that is all slightly subject to a no strike assumption ! Simon thompson has come over incredibly well at meetings as being a real man of the people - I think if if anyone can work with the unions he can. This really should be a 500p stock at least.
Mr oligarch and red ceo, I think you are both right - the historic ‘results’ I was referring to will make the company look staggeringly cheap - that was the £400m operating in H1 already declared and I would guess £300m H2 ish but I am a touch out of date. However, as we all agree it is the outlook and lack of clarity on a pay deal that will make it impossible to have an outlook ! As you say with £40m per 1% 7% plus would make a decent dent in profits. I would love to know what kind of price rises they are achieving - I suspect very high and a material offset to wage rises. The rns with pay negotiations ongoing will be definition be cautious. I suspect they will also not touch the balance sheet return of cash until it is a agreed as if there were to be a major strike it might need that cash. Don’t forget the return of capital promises made ! In the absence of a pay dispute I would be expecting another £200m special rather than buy back although the buy back is what they should be doing.
I am 110% confident we are in deep intrinsic value for RMG but as we all know the price sadly trades on current newsflow which at the minute is poor.
Without sounding like a city idiot (that maybe I am) but I have a huge love of RMG as an establishment and I really hope the unions get a good deal as the company can frankly afford more than most companies at the minute due to its financial strength. Inflation had gone up but many prices will 110% come down when supply issues alleviate. We just don’t know when. To get a say 6% pay rise for ever that doesn’t deflate and without allowing for restructurings may also not be right. However my point is everyone at Rmg does a great job. The shares are ridiculously undervalued and I wish somehow a deal could involved maybe new wider share ownership and then you all see the shares go to their right value which genuinely could be 1000p. Believe me on pure cash flow they could be. Anyway sorry I am Sunday morning waffling but I hope you get my point.
Results will be fine, the issue is the union deal and where it is. Not agreed by the results and backdated to April 1 st - this is significant uncertainty. The thing the market hates most … is uncertainty.
Once agreed sensibly the shares will heavily bounce.
Any views when they might agree ? The last two results have had the union bosses speaking alongside the ceo. Guess not this time.
Mr Goldenyears … quality input at last - I wish this chat room was more that than punters commenting a penny up or down !!
I hadnt spotted the pull back in Softbank comments re tie ups in the Annual report which I have been through - I would be very surprised as they own 10% and they are all about investee company tie ups. This FIR/ST product where our man info system works better with auto store looks very impressive BUT any deeper knowledge is limited - anyone else know ?
I know we have autostore going into US. IF IF we have improved the product ? And if we get any kind of carry on external sales it would be impressive - Autostore as you know is £7bn mkt cap on revenue of £300m. Incidentally although Shopify has fallen 70% it is still mkt cap $45bn (or was last I looked) and looked like revenue £5bn - again any deeper view would be helpful.
Thx mr Hosai - Yes just saying private market / corporates will value it correctly but the spooky public market sadly has not and will not. Hence why it will go private, sadly. It is an outrageous buy at these levels. As highlighted earlier May 11 is an important date when Softbank and I think Sofina can re enter the frame and participate in a go private below 596p. As was alluded to in the analyst meeting - a few weeks max from maybe something interesting ! …
Sadly Mr here’shopin the stock market has not revalued the business up of late and I don’t think will ever again value it correctly. The private arena will value it correctly which I suspect is not far away as it goes private. It is quite amazing the the U.K. market hasn’t valued this business correctly. This business was worth £2bn in the private arena 5 years ago ! I don’t think I’m near 30 years as a market practitioner I will ever have seen a more under valued stock.
The world seems to think you announce an approach when received - not true - as you see. Betaville was right on his views months ago and no one believed it. I wonder how many knew names are in the frame now ? Billions of £ that Global PE / growth investors have to deploy … and MM wishes he hadn’t floated … joining the dots not very difficult !!!
Fundamental value … and private investors know it28 Apr 2022 07:55
Lots of ideas about how THG pans out … this is just mine
Audited results are out - Pe investors can now analyse recent detail. I do not think any deal will be a classic PE majority deal. If the big holders role into private THG will only need one or two new smaller private investors .. look at the Shein deal and those names at a $100bn value… private deal
Hence, results out, time allowed now for investors to do final work, so I would expect news shortly on the go private. If the likes of Apollo are eyeing up Boots then the names (like Carlyle that Betaville says) will be numerous and top funds. THG is a top top global business sitting at totally the wrong price. Min 100% upside next few weeks I think.
RE: Whats the next big news for THG?24 Apr 2022 15:52
Correct Hosai, apologies maybe I wasn’t clear enough. Previous bids have set the level that needs to be beaten / improved on for a deal to be approved by the new chair. (no new deal can be below those levels, obviously). The rns is informing us of the approaches probably to come out of an offer period - as defined by the Panel. He may have been told he has to include the fact there have been approaches possibly by the Panel. Who knows. Betaville has been right about approaches so far. Now Betaville says there is a new name in the frame, perhaps a type of broad brush deal that is acceptable by management - don’t forget there is ALOT more to any approach than just headline price but that need to be a minimum, a now know minimum to the board where a chair can give a Recomendation. The new name has a big tech fund AND does minority investing - even their ‘partners fund’ is massive. If I am right on current holders then they only need a minority investor BUT who probably has deep pockets to fund future m&a and investment. Of course I understand golden share - BUT if this new approach is the right new partner - a golden share won’t be needing to be used.