Member Info for Commonsense5

The linked in message from RMG suggests it’s all going fine ? Someone must know ?

Hi all, I see Warrington hub on LinkedIn is open and running - it looks awesome but someone said the other day that it wasn’t working correctly - have teathing issues been sorted ?

Please could anyone kindly remind me of voting day for unions ?

With thanks

Mr Oligarch - thanks for your reply - you are right of course there are other factors - many driven by the war and resultant fuel price effect. However, the lack of certainty means RMG to most city funds is pretty univestable due to the uncertainty re the union deal and in the city’s view the potential if not agreed we end up with a strike. We’re the latter to happen we all know where the price would go.

The city bases its view on what happened before. Last year the pay deal was tabled as agreed in December 20 and ratified in Feb 21. These dates are a long way from your suggested dates. I am NOT suggesting you are wrong, far from it but the dates are quite different - perhaps there is a good reason ? Covid etc

Hi all - any latest as to when the union deal might be agreed ? Chance of a strike ? As ever v v good value is Rmg but until union deal agreed it isn’t going anywhere (sadly)

Thanks Scamp

Thanks mr red ceo

I really don’t think the share price has much medium term downside and maybe not short term either - all due to intrinsic value BUT that is all slightly subject to a no strike assumption ! Simon thompson has come over incredibly well at meetings as being a real man of the people - I think if if anyone can work with the unions he can. This really should be a 500p stock at least.

Mr oligarch and red ceo, I think you are both right - the historic ‘results’ I was referring to will make the company look staggeringly cheap - that was the £400m operating in H1 already declared and I would guess £300m H2 ish but I am a touch out of date. However, as we all agree it is the outlook and lack of clarity on a pay deal that will make it impossible to have an outlook ! As you say with £40m per 1% 7% plus would make a decent dent in profits. I would love to know what kind of price rises they are achieving - I suspect very high and a material offset to wage rises. The rns with pay negotiations ongoing will be definition be cautious. I suspect they will also not touch the balance sheet return of cash until it is a agreed as if there were to be a major strike it might need that cash. Don’t forget the return of capital promises made ! In the absence of a pay dispute I would be expecting another £200m special rather than buy back although the buy back is what they should be doing.

I am 110% confident we are in deep intrinsic value for RMG but as we all know the price sadly trades on current newsflow which at the minute is poor.

Without sounding like a city idiot (that maybe I am) but I have a huge love of RMG as an establishment and I really hope the unions get a good deal as the company can frankly afford more than most companies at the minute due to its financial strength. Inflation had gone up but many prices will 110% come down when supply issues alleviate. We just don’t know when. To get a say 6% pay rise for ever that doesn’t deflate and without allowing for restructurings may also not be right. However my point is everyone at Rmg does a great job. The shares are ridiculously undervalued and I wish somehow a deal could involved maybe new wider share ownership and then you all see the shares go to their right value which genuinely could be 1000p. Believe me on pure cash flow they could be. Anyway sorry I am Sunday morning waffling but I hope you get my point.

Good luck to all

Results will be fine, the issue is the union deal and where it is. Not agreed by the results and backdated to April 1 st - this is significant uncertainty. The thing the market hates most … is uncertainty.

Once agreed sensibly the shares will heavily bounce.

Any views when they might agree ? The last two results have had the union bosses speaking alongside the ceo. Guess not this time.

Mr Goldenyears … quality input at last - I wish this chat room was more that than punters commenting a penny up or down !!

I hadnt spotted the pull back in Softbank comments re tie ups in the Annual report which I have been through - I would be very surprised as they own 10% and they are all about investee company tie ups. This FIR/ST product where our man info system works better with auto store looks very impressive BUT any deeper knowledge is limited - anyone else know ?

I know we have autostore going into US. IF IF we have improved the product ? And if we get any kind of carry on external sales it would be impressive - Autostore as you know is £7bn mkt cap on revenue of £300m. Incidentally although Shopify has fallen 70% it is still mkt cap $45bn (or was last I looked) and looked like revenue £5bn - again any deeper view would be helpful.

We have an incredibly valuable business in THG.

THG next

2m is the uncross - it is 2m bought and sold -ie crossed up = the closing auction.

Let’s see ! As we said before !

Totally agree

Thx mr Hosai - Yes just saying private market / corporates will value it correctly but the spooky public market sadly has not and will not. Hence why it will go private, sadly. It is an outrageous buy at these levels. As highlighted earlier May 11 is an important date when Softbank and I think Sofina can re enter the frame and participate in a go private below 596p. As was alluded to in the analyst meeting - a few weeks max from maybe something interesting ! …

Sadly Mr here’shopin the stock market has not revalued the business up of late and I don’t think will ever again value it correctly. The private arena will value it correctly which I suspect is not far away as it goes private. It is quite amazing the the U.K. market hasn’t valued this business correctly. This business was worth £2bn in the private arena 5 years ago ! I don’t think I’m near 30 years as a market practitioner I will ever have seen a more under valued stock.

11th May - that has popped up quick and very relevant re timing !!!

@hosai - correct

The world seems to think you announce an approach when received - not true - as you see. Betaville was right on his views months ago and no one believed it. I wonder how many knew names are in the frame now ? Billions of £ that Global PE / growth investors have to deploy … and MM wishes he hadn’t floated … joining the dots not very difficult !!!

@steveinhull - if the thesis is right about thg time on market short lived … then directors are not allowed to buy by definition

Lots of ideas about how THG pans out … this is just mine

Audited results are out - Pe investors can now analyse recent detail. I do not think any deal will be a classic PE majority deal. If the big holders role into private THG will only need one or two new smaller private investors .. look at the Shein deal and those names at a $100bn value… private deal

Hence, results out, time allowed now for investors to do final work, so I would expect news shortly on the go private. If the likes of Apollo are eyeing up Boots then the names (like Carlyle that Betaville says) will be numerous and top funds. THG is a top top global business sitting at totally the wrong price. Min 100% upside next few weeks I think.

They probably can’t buy stock