Member Info for Commonsense5

Did anyone see if ?!!! This am on bbc live interview

Union boss interviewed saying twice company is being taken over !!

Suspect he is wrong BUT suspect he was referring to GLS being spun off !

Said unions in one room and management in the other room with Private equity NOT negotiating with unions

Said management will all be gone in a years time !!

Agree mr oligarch

As a country it is imperative we are open to legitimate good foreign investors. I hope that Mr K is but we will not conclude that here.

If Mr K can’t buy more it will not take long for him to find an arms length friend.

At the very least what this will do is to get city analysts to consider even further what the effect / value of spinning off GLS is.

Mr Tomolo - thank you for a very honest post. It is these kind of unemotional posts that make these boards so good.

You obviously should get a pay rise but as a family man I respect your comments about childcare - it’s expensive !

Let’s see how it pans out. I fear for the Royal Mail business if it cannot move with the times. It’s a shame they can’t offer flexibility somehow to allow those with families to be home at the right time. It’s a tough one.

Good luck

I have little doubt that Vesa is seeking permission to go through 25% to 30% in order to capitalise more on the GLS spin off which I think is a racing dead cert. As an overseas very shrewd business man he will be giving all his support to getting GLS out of the buggers muddle of Royal Mail. He (and we) will get the equivalent of c 300p back in our pocket or maybe more and Royal Mail will have to fight its battle on its own. I have just bought more and see this as a positive sign whether he gets permission or not.

1. Will it be a joint listing on Nasdaq of flutter OR Will they spin off part of Fanduel and therefore help the brand by having its own listing.
2. Will they announce on the US cap markets day OR will they announce earlier - more elegant the former BUT rules and regs might determine the latter has to happen. In which case it might be announced soon.

My personal belief is that probably better to spin off a pure play Fanduel as would get a higher valuation and make the investment decision a lot easier.

Has the company ever alluded to which would be better

Thoughts ?

Guys just read Joules rns today - last warning

He would have to work his notice obviously - he can’t just leave

Mr Jon no company wants to be finding a new cfo in this situation - I suspect he is comfortable off and doesn’t need the heavy lifting this one might require but you are right we don’t know

I am just saying this as I am a poster and support other posters who add value but I lost a lot for not reading and considering some peoples comments over the years …

These are the facts ..

1. Asos has been downgrading for some time two this year with now pbt only £20m to £60m on a £900m mkt cap.
2. Post the big raise (without checking 18 months ago) net debt has crept back up pre summer trading to £75m to £125m predicted at year end by the company (end august). Anyone who knows anything about business knows that IF they are even lower end of £20m pbt and net debt of £125m these numbers don’t look good from a covenant perspective and banks will not advance more or allow them to use other facilities until they better understand the situation. A fund raise will be inevitably needed. In the current market that raise will not be higher than 500p is my guess.
3. HOWEVER - IF the summer has been poor then guidance will be wrong and this will be a loss making company and by definition net debt will be higher at say £150m, maybe more.
4. The biggest point is how did stock holding on the latest balance sheet get to £1bn ? The auditors will be very very carefully going through this and IF they need to write off (or provision rather) this will hit profits further. However - the fundamental middle man strategic position of asos will be questioned and they won’t have up to date numbers to support the strategy.
5. August is the year end so work will be beginning on what numbers look like. They will know very soon and have to comment. The previous downgrades were before the consumers were being properly hit by all the issues we know.
6. The final blow in the join the dots … is the cfo resigning !! You could not script it - he would only resign if he looked at all of the above including questioning can asos trade out of this OR is there a proper debacle on the horizon all of which is very very hard work and stressful as a cfo between now and end of the year probably including dealing with the auditors with their new risk averse with no prisoners approach. As it stands even without a further downgrade this company will not avoid a ‘going concern’ audit report - no one should refute that.

Most of my points above are pure factual. Bigger funds cannot get out of this one at the minute. No institional investor would buy without knowing the august result.

Genuinely trying to help we smaller investors

New chairman, new ceo will almost certainly and typically start afresh with new low ball numbers they can beat over the coming years at which point the sp can begin to recover but only after it has fallen first. Sorry

Mr Fira MA only buys at a heavy discount - if he buys its because the stock is at 200p and has been proven to have been strategically squeezed out

Me Dogger - I am with you - a reseller who had an early mover advantage but where the brands want to control their product more and more which makes siting in the middle on wafer thin margins on every angle inefficient. Issue is when it comes to a fundraise they won’t have any current relevant actual numbers to support a value and institutions have seen that trick once already in the previous raise which didn’t work. It’s all about summer trading and whether that stock got shifted … the auditors will be all over it …

August year end, £1bn last reported stock pre summer on a downgrade, new ceo, several downgrades this year - a textbook situation which could be imminently friendless. Todays fall was just the start, 500p next stop

The other point is that auditors are all over companies at the minute with a lot of power and very very risk averse - even getting through the legitimacy of £1bn stock could extend the audit from usual timeline. Either way this has many red flags. Mr Jon I am sure you are a lovely block and without sounding patronising keep assessing investments and downside risk - which this has a lot. As I said before if pre tax profit only £20m and net debt ends up being £125m (all extremes of guidance) or worse … this one will have to raise funds

Mr shearclass - correct on every level - a long way from where Ashley buys businesses. Asos with august year end now shortly need to tell us how trading is their big net debt number and importantly how that £1bn pile of stock has gone in a tricky market now over 100% of market cap. Auditors are super hot on this area and especially at minute. As I have said before maybe new ceo will find a golden bullet OR will he find stock skeletons … fire brigade on standby !!…

The board have a big regulatory duty to tell the market if they are not on track … if I am right this is a rescue 500p fundraise at best.

Jon I hope you are right - sadly upside near term in this market is limited but downside if the end of August doesn’t quite get there is very large and probably down to 600p. Issue is new ceos don’t tend to find positive rabbits out the hat but moreso extra skeletons - that’s just a fact.

Mr Isleworth - very helpful thanks

I am going to start a new board for value add only investors where there will be no tittle tattle where everyone adds value and silly comments or over emotive posters are straight struck off. I think such a board would be very powerful and I wish LSE would do the same - I have stopped reading most comments on this board and posting less as it is rubbish. The good posters should simply not respond to posts you think are over emotive or rubbish. I might even call it the ‘Retail Union’ as we smaller investors have to work together to share knowledge to improve our investments and beat the big boy funds !

Sorry but just saying.

Just interesting from bberg ..

All updated post figures
26 analysts averaging 13378p target price but within

Morgan stanley 15600
Jeffries 12900
Citi 15000
Investec 15600
Peel hunt 14500
Well Fargo 12000
Barclays 13800
88% positive

Analysts are not always correct but enough of them seem to think there is a lot further to go

Thx Mr Gewilla, didn’t know about the mediation October date - thank you

Staying high level ..

Government paper U.K. delayed - overhanging but don’t know when issued
End October for Fanduel mediation result (as you say)
Nov 8th California result of runners and riders (they said on call)
Nov 16th US cap markets day … (I think they will update then on the US listing)
I think they might have upgraded this time but need to keep an eye on U.K.
They said the profit Q2 was after all costs and even ifrs 17 (I think) stock option charges … that is fully loaded !

The figure I read from Entain was an upgraded expection of the size of the sports betting market being $35bn a year (any other supporting numbers ???) .. if you work these numbers through at I think they said 17% or 18% ebitda margin … the upside next few months and years massively outweighs the down side. Reasons to get very excited are very high. I would just joint list the whole thing on Nasdaq. If you were to list new this on Nasdaq now the value would be massively more than £20bn. Just my view relative to other US businesses which are far less exciting. This is new, exciting, under held US funds, a huge British success with massive market share with limited competition in a massive massive market….I think a lot more buyers than sellers next few months as investors read the tea leaves

Following on from previous posts.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11041781/amp/Asos-delays-orders-fashionistas-feel-pinch.html

Just seen this from a few weeks ago in the mail - comments from suppliers ….this £1bn of stock which is more than the mkt cap is looking like a real issue. IF trading is hard then this is not a stick to be in

Not if they are writing it down ! (The £1bn stock!)