Member Info for Commonsense5

Thx Mr Gewilla - your post was very helpfu

I have done significant reading now and I think think this jn an outstanding structural growth story in Americas back yard !!

I own a lot more than when I asked about New York.

Surely a US listing to be announced alongside capital markets day in November ? How do they answer that question today ?

Quick question - how long will it only be two licenses in NY and how long do current licenses last ?

Thank you

Please see my earlier posts re the financial position of this company and the £1bn of stock. Then read the RevB statement today.

Let’s try and keep this board factual and value add

Otherwise good posters leave - I learn quite a bit from the board. Each of us adds a different angle.

I really welcome detractors / negative comments iF sensible and not emotional

Thx

It is the closing auction ! Big trades all stocks every night - when the index guys put their orders on

Calling all holders … this was a VERY important day to bounce off what some might have thought was a shocking rns !! As we have chatted - any holder pre today knows of all the bad news for some time including strikes - ok dates were new - and my goodness there has been a lot of bad news

Going forward it is now very clear …either

Strike is called off and deal agreed - stock up maybe 20%

Or

Details of GLS spin off is revealed - stock up 30% min

In meantime … analysts will know this and begin to tell the market. Expect upward creep next few weeks as long as main market stays steady

Good luck all

Can anyone help

I have done a lot of reading on this one ahead of Q2 on Friday. Amazing that New York sports book only opened in Jan this year !

The US opportunity looks huge. Why would this company not want to join others and joint lots on New York ? Seems a no brainer !

Mr Jon H

I appreciate your comments and sentiment. I used to ignore negative posters and have lost a lot by ignoring the good ones. I should have taken heed of those who post with substance.

Asos looks fantastic in non financials. However the financials in black and white are really important and any investor ignores at their peril. The reality is even before the U.K. consumer was being properly hit with the cost of living this company has reduced PBT forecasts to a paltry £20m to £60m from £120m ish. At the same time net debt has risen to between £75m and £125m at the year end. Stock has risen massively to £1bn. These metrics are not good. Yea they bought Top shop but I am not entirely sure that was a good buy. As I say my points are simple and factual. IF new ceo and non execs decide that even the current pbt forecasts are not achievable then this company will have to raise funds alongside a warning. I don’t know if you have followed recently stocks that warn even not by much BUT they can fall 30% easy. Fundamentals go out the window as they hunt for funds. This stock could go to 500p on a raise. If this company were trying to ipo now with the numbers above it would not achieve £500m. All I am saying is at least understand that. Good luck

Mr Beetle

The principle of what you are saying is bang on

I don’t like these comments about the union bosses won’t engage in discussions - that is not the way forward. Very few jobs are not hard.

I will predict the SP will be up on the day

I will have a very large wager that the strike won’t happen - next statement will be no strike and agreement and back to 300p. All for working more flexibly ! An occasional Sunday and extra hour here and there - smell the coffee !!

Hoping Mr K builds his holding to 30%

Mr muler I agree good post

Adding to your post .. doctors and nurses striking has serious consequences, rail and ferry strikes cause bad chaos and the economy slows - I am really not sure in a modern day and age of e mail that not having post or even a parcel for a day has a huge effect apart from lose Royal Mail workers sympathy and ultimately jobs

Please can someone help me actually

For the average day 50 year old posty - what do they earn roughly including pension and any other benefits ? As I have said before the only posties I personally know do it for lifestyle - a bit like being yoeman of the guard at the Tower of London after a good career in the army and well earned

Also sorry one more what do new postmen and ladies get paid - I don’t mean this in the way some will read it but there can’t be many qualifications required to become a postmen ? To repeat I really don’t mean that in the derogatory way it might sound

Jon I really don’t mean to be a party pooper but there is no metric in the market that says asos should be worth £1bn more than now. So sorry but there isn’t. They need to deliver on what they have said and get that debt down and profits up. However, if there is someone out there who would buy asos then there might be. Just not sure who that is at the minute when the likes of next can pick up nice brands v v cheaply (Joules). £2bn is a big bite for anyone in the current market.

Mr arsenal go for it !! Professional shorters will know there is a danger of this big % move, big enough to wipe out amateur shorters. Do be carful. As say that as an arsenal fan to help

Mr Isleworth - re GLS there are two ceos - and a chair - the chair will spin off GLS as that is the only way to get Rmg to independent profitability which I have no doubt it can return to - the decision makers will be chair, ceo or GLS and Mr K with 22%. I would expect all 3 to want the spin off and force Royal Mail to be profitable and limit pay rises to what it can afford, like any business. If anything I would expect Simon Thompson to want to keep GLS in house. Either way a strategic holding can be retained easily.

Within Royal Mail I believe there is a very valuable business.

Sorry point being that 50% will be the opening price so you won’t get a chance to get in for a portion of it

Mr arsenal - just be aware when clear news of GLS breaks this stock could rise 50% !! Yes 50%. Investors now need to take probably a touch more pain down to 250p worst case I think and then we will get our upside hopefully having bought more

A quality post, thank you

Thanks mr Isleworth

I have to say I think this will seriously backfire on employees. Not getting post isn’t exactly like no trains, no nurses, no ferries etc. I hope the GLS file is nicely advanced and very much live now ! A shame as I think the union leaders have done their members a disservice.

Was that the strong update where they reduced guidance pbt from £110-140m to £20m to £60m ? And increased debt guidance to £90m to £125m ?

Thanks Mr Harris. I accept on paper it all sounds good but looking at basics of cash / stock ..

April 2020 they needed to raise £247m from the market at 1560p. At the same time they were extending the revolver from £60m to £80m as net debt in Feb 20 pre the raise had risen to £163m. By August 2020 net cash went to £407m and stock seemed fine at £532m against previous year of £536m. Roll forward to Feb 22 interims … we return to net debt of £60m which they now guide will move to between £75m and £125m at the end Aug 22 (they are clearly working to £50m roundings!) BUT stock at the same date Feb 22 has moved to £986m v £694m the year before. In Jan 22 pbt guidance for year to August 22 was £110m to £140m and they have now cut that in the June trading rns gets cut to £20m to £60m. As per below my gut feel is that the situation is worse than that. All the great new Top Shop profits I assume are included within the £20m to £60m.

So £247m raise in April 20 with what should have been some very good Covid trading has gone up in smoke to now go back to potentially £125m of net debt end August 22 AND almost £1bn of stock as at Feb 22 with profits evaporating. New ceo at helm about to pull a rabbit out of the hat OR more likely start a big write down across the piece.

With respect the numbers simply don’t stack up. And now we go into a consumer downturn …

Sorry just correcting my first email - I said year end net debt end August 22 might be £60m as per interims but of course the mid June trading statement gave guidance of net debt being £75m to £125m as at end August year end. So with £20m to £60m pbt guidance; if the pbt ends up being £20m and the net debt ends uk begin upper end of £125m, that will almost certainly give them a covenant issue (despite undrawn extra facilities elsewhere.) Assuming the trading doesn’t deteriorate in the summer. The point at which they don’t think they will make even £20m we will hear about it in an unscheduled RNS. I guess this is why the good retailers at Shore Capital have a sell note on the stock. ASOS I think has got away with lots over recent years due to its prowess as an early mover but latterly lenders will increasingly challenge the lack of own brand and squeezed middle man / reseller nature of the business. More equity required I believe.