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First the positive they have not killed the project. This may allay some fears of underhand activity behind the scenes.
The big issue however for me is we continue to be drip fed the absolute bare minimum of detail with increasingly ambiguous wording. This can equally be read as National could not approve the EIA in its current guise so they are giving the company the opportunity of another shot.
In my experience if they are genuinely "pleased" with this news then we get a lot more flesh on the bone as to conversations, the process, next steps, timings etc. If unsure one obfuscates with ambiguous wording.
The other issue it raises for me is we were assured that all the water issues had been resolved and they were confident of permit approval. The inference with this news is that they had clearly not addressed those issues hence the EIA could not be approved as it stands either by Regional or National. Presumably the EIA now needs to incorporate the new KMP to get it over the line which in itself raises further questions. Does Regional accept KMP at face value, does it require further independent opinion/testing etc.
I am also of the opinion that they will need to raise some more cash in Mar/April in order to get the Annual Report signed off as a GC and to provide some further cash runway. The question is how are they going to do this and at what level of discount. Was the recent broker note a prelude to this.
All in all more questions that answers for me so we are left trying to fill in the gaps. The company are not helping themselves with providing the absolute bare minimum of information to SHs. Cynically is there a reason for this ?
Finally if BOD are genuinely "pleased" with this news lets see some deferment of remuneration pending permit. They could even take equity in lieu as presumably they consider this a fantastic entry point given its just a case of rubber stamping by Regional !
2/2
Sources for the above:
"Moroccan Law 47-18 covers ESIA approvals and governs the Regional Investment Centre that EML is currently appealing from.
- the Regional Commission meets weekly (article 34);
- no one with a conflict of interest can be on the panel (art 32);
- members are bound to absolute secrecy about how decisions are made (art 35), so not great for transparency;
- it has to reach a decision within 30 days of a project file being submitted by the Centre Director (art 34), so we might infer that the Centre Director didn't want to submit it or dragged heels until circa 2 months ago (you might imagine why Graham couldn't say the latter and perhaps that explains his RNS saying that he didn't know why it wasn't going in);
- decisions are taking by majority and by the Chairman if there is a tie (art 34), who may be a guy called Rachid El Abdi, who appears to be a significant figure in the Moroccan legislature but I don't know;
You should verify all or any of this yourself and not rely directly on it. My process was to download the statue from https://www.rabatinvest.ma/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Loi47.18-FR.pdf (https://www.rabatinvest.ma/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Loi47.18-FR.pdf)
and copy that into
https://www.deepl.com/translator/files (https://www.deepl.com/translator/files)
Source: post of 28 Jul 2023
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/ideas/?page=8
ARTICLE 37
Any refusal decision issued by the regional commission must be reasoned.
It may be the subject, by the investor concerned, of an appeal before the Ministerial Steering Committee provided for in Title III of this law within 10 days from the date of its notification.
However, the investor may, prior to referral to the Ministerial Commission, file an informal appeal with the regional wali, who presents it to the Regional Commission, which must rule within 10 days of receipt of the appeal.
In the absence of a response within the aforementioned period or when the Regional Commission confirms its previous decision, the investor may lodge an appeal before the Ministerial Commission, which rules within a period not exceeding 30 days.
In four days.
People will be moving their money around now in preparation to buy in
In my opinion. They have basically said that they are ok with it...Now local committee can sign it off with new amendments. Same as this country, if my local council didn't sign a major development they would have to go to the welsh government for guidance to clarify that such a development would be permitted. Moroccan government have basically said ok so now local government can sign it off. All good in my opinion...
This is welcome news, they are not asking for a new ESIA, it isn’t starting from scratch.
Emmerson will now resubmit the ‘EIA’ so that excludes the social side. Most of the data remains the same the major difference is obviously the water & no DWI.
EML don’t need to raise currently they have enough money until the end of the year, hopefully this is now resolved within the next few months.
#EML And still she moves as per the prediction, despite certain "opinions" of bad actors. https://x.com/SwazersC/status/1767117070154506752?s=20 https://www.tradingview.com/x/V9YQbHIP/
And as another posted said, a recommendation for approval Subject to water managment would have been better, why can't the highest committee approve it, I'm assuming they have the ability to do so.
I really hope we get the approval but it just all seems very backwards, first the local committee "unable to approve the application", we was lead to belive that this was because of the size, importance and ecological aspects , now its been referred back and the process needs to start from scratch. Emmerson done a good job with this RNS but you can only imagine the frustration behind the scenes.
Chewise, returned to regional for reconsideration, I would be happier if it said returned with recommendation for approval. They could reconsider and come to the same conclusion. Though the environmental and water consequences are considerably reduced now we have the new KMP and that is a game changer we are told. The market appears to like the news so far this morning.
I don’t know how to take this news. I too thought the top brass would just rule on this and the decision would be made. Ok, they’ve not said no you can’t have it but instead kicked it back to local government. The RNS’s always leave you with more questions than answers. They’re too vague. I didn’t like the fact a representative of OCP sat on the local government ruling committee (if in fact that was true). The bottom line is we wait and wait some more, meanwhile the cash burn continues. God I hope they don’t do a fundraising at this share price.
Surely demonstrates that the Ministerial Committee agree with the proposal and now Regional must sign off
And…you mention 90 days. Not a cat in hells chance. This now opens the door to another potential 2 year wait.
ideas; i agree, it’s a welcome rns. however, during this whole process we’ve been led to believe that the decision to award the esia would be taken at ministerial level. not once through this whole charade were we told that ministers would/could just knock it back to the local level. clearly graham clarke has not got a ******* scooby doo about what’s going on.
Good news RNS as the ministerial committee decision could have killed the project stone dead.
The estimate for the full ESIA process from scratch at CRUI is around 90 days, I think (dyor), in which case we might hope for good news in H1 with any luck.
Testpack are you trying to get the price a little bit lower again?
Naughty Naughty
I am perplexed by posters ,acceptance of 'decisions in 6 months, or EOY'.
I can only assume that you believe EML are doing little more than put forward the the new KMA process for 'consideration'.
Do you believe that the BOD can wait a further 9 months before any decision is made.
They are burning cash, and no income. Do this exercise at home, stop all your income sources, and see how long it is before you cannot feed yourself. There is no chance of fund raise, and when the Company cannot pay it's salaries, or lays all of it's workforce off, it still has rent and rates to pay. Administrators are called in.
I have to believe, beside past form saying otherwise, that at least one senior member is 'on site', pounding doors. It is in The Kingdoms interest to have this project up and running. Now, their preferred miner maybe OCP, in which case there is nothing EML can do., except try and get a 'deal' with OCP on a 'fair and equitable' basis, that does not ignore EML's S/H base.
If there is no EISA by Summer, EML is finished as a company. AIMHO.
To be clear below, I’m saying 2-6 months from communication.
We might assume it was communicated 5 weeks ago. It could also have been trailed for some months already, before announcement of the detail to the markets.
With no knowledge or comment on ‘late 2024’ below, I think it is reasonable to think any ‘deal’ on the ESIA will realistically take two to six months.
I say ‘deal’ as it will need regulatory ‘agreement’ that the new technique is sufficient and that will take some scrutiny and internal meetings and diary time.
I dont think I misinterpreted the video. I don't think the ESIA will come till late 2024. I don't think they want to telegraph it because the SP will tank further. Which is why people have pulled out again. This dogs going further down for another few months by the feel of things.
Hi trev79,
I doubt whether EML will RNS on the meeting date. It would presume that the ESIA will be discussed and decided on within this meeting and there is no guarantee of this. GC has taken a battering on the use of words like "imminent" in the past so they will be cautious about anything related to timescales unless something is definite.
Possibly the more relevant date is the 5 weeks since the "New KMP Processing Route" was announced.
It is all great stuff, makes the compelling business case all the stronger. However we just need the ESIA to be awarded. It's 6 months since the earthquake in 2 days, so it's getting beyond comprehension to think that business as usual in government has not returned. The ministerial meeting to determine this and hopefully award this must therefore surely now be scheduled, but we have no information at all on this. Very very frustrating for long term holders.
Does anyone expect an RNS when the company become aware of the date? I don't think there will be one.
At this rate I'm expecting yet another quarterly update RNS to arrive before the RNS we have all been needing for almost 3 years drops.
I continue to hold as I can't see any fair minded reason now why the ESIA will not be awarded now and surely soon, but I just hope I am right as there is no future business with very significant revenues and profits without it.
Good points. What doesn’t kill your makes you stronger. More time at planning allows tighter plans. Just need to get the ESIA.
Hopefully some have now read the note. I have been investing in miners for the last 15yrs & seen numerous research notes but this is easily the best one I have read.
Not only does it deal with the financials but it also goes further into the new fertilizers EML have in Struvite & Vivianite.
A couple more interesting nuggets from the note include,
Finance wise at the end of 2023 Emmerson had around $2m left.
Suggestions on a raise, post ESIA (8p+), need around $6m to see them through to financial close.
Crop trials of the new fertilizer are taking place, results in an upcoming FS.
The FS will/may also extend mine life as well as giving lower cut off grades making it possible for larger mining machinery to be used producing extra amounts of potash.
There is a possibility of processing Struvite into Dittmarite, which is a more expensive fertilizer.
EML could also blend MOP with struvite to create a multi mineral fertilizer.
Vivianite 'could' have the potential to be used in LFP lithium batteries.
As I said it really is an interesting read & worth having a look at if you are invested here.
OCP had a representative on the committee that was ‘unable’ to approve the ESIA, if I recall correctly.