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Rupert Joy is a non-exec director and they often have part-time roles. We don’t know for how long and often he works for EML. He can do whatever he wants in his spare time.
As for GC, it is not unusual for a start-up or company in its early stages to appoint someone on the technical or operational side as CEO. When the company starts making money and has grown, it replaces them with a person who has more of a sales/money/marketing background especially someone who has performed such a role for a larger company before. This is my experience having worked for numerous start-ups in IT over the years. Horses for courses.
It seems like Swazers redraws the support and resistance tramlines retrospectively each time a new graph is published. Very clever LOL. You can't be wrong. In the mid March graph (the last one it seems was published on X), it did not predict sub 2p or even close to 2p support levels going forward. It predicted 3+p levels. Well that turned out to be wrong as just one example.
Hi TrickyMatters
I took 79,000,000 x 0.1875 x 60 (rough GBP per barrel)
And got somewhere near £900m
Anyway we look at it, ORCA seems v cheap
Hi TrickyMatters
Thanks for the revenue estimate but i wonder what oil price per barrel you used as my figure was way different ?
They will need to raise capital post first oil to develop the field presumably 18.75% of total required. Plus there are operating costs on top but to have a current sub £10m valuation at this stage seems way too cheap??
I share the same thoughts as to why is ORCA so cheap but investors are risk averse given we have less than two weeks left before the Ping deal needs to complete. I have no reason to think it wont go ahead but people get understandably nervous especially those sat on a profit who have a short term view.
Hi trev79,
I doubt whether EML will RNS on the meeting date. It would presume that the ESIA will be discussed and decided on within this meeting and there is no guarantee of this. GC has taken a battering on the use of words like "imminent" in the past so they will be cautious about anything related to timescales unless something is definite.
I see 3 more or less basic scenarios with EML over the coming months:
1. ESIA permit is awarded at national level. Forget your resistance levels, it will smash through those no issue at all.
2. ESIA permit is refused at national level (ok, there may be an option to reapply). I think this will severely test your elevated support line if not dive through this no issue.
3. No decision on ESIA. I cannot believe the support lines and resistance lines will simply move up and up over time against this kind of background.
Have I missed anything?
Hi Swazers,
Thanks for the messages. I see the big blue arrow and the 3.50 of course from Feb 6th but on what date did you predict the SP would hit this level? You have a y-axis of SP and x-axis of the date. I was simply taking the point of the arrow where it hits your line and reading off the x-axis value of late March. Is this correct?
Quoting from Q4 Update RNS and hope this helps answer question below:
"Emmerson is still awaiting the session of the Commission Ministérielle de Pilotage (''Ministerial Committee'' or the ''Committee'') to obtain environmental approval"
Swazers - Please help me here. You said "For the record, you made your statement after I had already successfully predicted a rise of over 65% from the 19th of last month and the SP moved to my exact level of prediction, which was 3.50p. I was 100% accurate using my system of TA and overdelivered. You must exist in an upside-down realm." - when did the price hit 3.50p recently? I see from your chart posted on X that a line predicts a rise to 3.50p in late March?
Https://members.parliament.uk/member/4745/contact
See above link. This is for Rob Butler, MP who is appointed trade envoy for Morocco. I think we need as a group to start emailing him with our concerns especially in relation to the latest news from OCP. What do people think?
For slope, see graphic at top of page 10 @
https://emmersonplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/EML-Corporate-Presentation-Feb23-02.02.23.pdf
Wanting to acquire EMLs license area and doing so are 2 completely different things. If they unreasonably delay for a further 12 months, and we run out of cash, there is a potential price to pay for this given the UK are the 4th largest inward investor in Morocco. We are talking approx. £158m in just Q1 2022. Time will tell and everyone right now is speculating - no-one knows what is really happening behind the scenes but some talk like they do.
How many far more lucrative mining operations are owned and run by foreign national companies in Africa alone? How come the governments concerned have not all used trickery at some point in the past to take these over?
I don't think anyone on this board or the BoD is in favour or a fan of a deal involving "a 'partner' forking out a few 10s of million US, and then rakes in half of 100s of millions US EBITD". However, if it turns out to be the only "game in town", it's better than nothing. Let's hope all this speculation is just that.
That is very interesting BTS. Given the location and talk of things like optimization of water, I cannot imagine the Govt would encourage EML to "do its own thing" in the same area. If it does lead to co-operation, it will come down to what terms EML could get on a processing deal. Thinking further ahead I could see a stronger link up. Can we see a tie-up with OCP being a pre-condition of the environmental permit?
Hi Swazers,
I did ask "What do you deduce from it?". I am definitely interested for sure but could not see any elaboration on "I found it very interesting". What does your system tell us about the SP in coming weeks/months or what will happen when we/if we get the environmental permit, for example? I am very receptive to knowing about what statistical analysis can tell us about the past but my point was how accurate can any predictions be about future events when there are so many other factors involved other than past SP movements?
Thanks in advance.
Thanks for the chart. What do you deduce from it?
I am sure I am not alone in being sceptical about SP charts. They can, of course, tell us what happened in the past (or part of the story) but the past is not a guarantee of the future. A SP can be trending upwards and fall off a cliff in minutes due to some news event. The reverse is true of course. These are extreme events but I do not believe in SP predictions based on price trends or recent data.
I get TP's comments and I am also concerned about where this is heading. However, the "Commission Ministérielle de Pilotage" is not there to discuss just EML. It will have many other items on its agenda so to suspend its activities just to frustrate EML is not going to happen (cutting your nose off to spite your face). Why it has not met for so long given the national level decisions it makes is still completely baffling I must admit !!! How can we as a group find out why? Can we collectively lobby someone? There was an MP put in charge of Moroccan trade a little while ago?