The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
I get TP's comments and I am also concerned about where this is heading. However, the "Commission Ministérielle de Pilotage" is not there to discuss just EML. It will have many other items on its agenda so to suspend its activities just to frustrate EML is not going to happen (cutting your nose off to spite your face). Why it has not met for so long given the national level decisions it makes is still completely baffling I must admit !!! How can we as a group find out why? Can we collectively lobby someone? There was an MP put in charge of Moroccan trade a little while ago?
You can still have communications with the authorities without the Ministerial Committee meeting. It does not follow that because the meeting has not happened, it is off the radar of the Govt. If the next meeting had already taken place, and EML had not been on the agenda, I would gladly agree.
I Google'd "can a share quote be higher than asking price" which returned for example
"This can sometimes happen in fast or volatile markets when prices are changing rapidly. So while it might seem logical that the last price of a stock is the price where it will trade next, this rarely occurs."
Looks like an out-of-date bid since it fell significantly from around 1.8 yesterday.
I try to be open minded to new suggestions but how can MM's cause trading volumes to be multiples of another day. If they are manipulating the share price, in what way? The real factor behind share price changes is the volume of shares being sold vs. being purchased not MM's being underhand in any way. MM's make money on the spread but take risks in purchased shares not declining in value before they come to sell.
GC has mentioned in last RNS they await notification of when the next Govt meeting will be when they discuss the environment permit. It seems the last such meeting was months ago. I cannot believe that nothing is scheduled and no-one has any idea of when this will be. I tried searching the Internet for any evidence of this but nothing. I believe EML will find cash tight towards the middle of this year so they cannot indefinitely. Does anyone have any further insights?
Perhaps GC has been told the meeting is imminent but will not share this timescale with the outside world??
In the latest corporate presentation, AMRQ envisage mining 100 tonnes per day in H2 2024, ramping up to 300 tonnes per day. Using their previous figures of 18.5 grammes per tonne (quoted in 2020 so average may be higher now) this equates to 1.85kg of day. Market rate of this weight is around $120k per day. At 300 tonnes per day, $360k per day. Per annum that is $43.8M and $131.4M respectively assuming no breaks in production (there will be some). That's the cash flow for further development but once revenues start flowing, the company becomes much more credible and hence investable.
The share price reflects supply and demand surely? The board have a vested interest in the price doing well, not badly. If people want to take a short-term view and buy/sell, it will create volatility as they are out for a "fast buck". I don't blame them if that's their strategy. If you are in it for a medium-long term view, don't worry too much about daily share price changes unless it reflects some bad news.
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqvx3tzOUB8
Recent presentation on farm-out update without having to register with anyone.
A point made on another board and it has some validity here too IMHO - if directors really have the confidence that the missing permit will be granted, why are they not buying shares at such extremely low prices? Words are cheap right?
If you have $3.5m in cash left end of June 23 and burn it at $2.5m p.a., you have over a year left. It is 3.5/2.5 years, not 2.5/3.5 years surely? However, we are splitting hairs as they don't have lots of time left and who is going to lend money without the permit and the delay so far?
If enough people are going to take profits on the rise due to the RNS, the price will reflect that. Some are complaining the SP should be higher. Perhaps they too wanted to sell but missed the boat at the desired price. I don't see any evidence of any conspiracy or market manipulation. If someone does, please share it. The share trades info is delayed and is not guaranteed to always reflect a true buy or sell. It is based on the agreed price and its closeness to the bid and ask as I understand it.
"A close family member of mine works in the legal profession. One of the areas covered being acquisitions. Many of the deals go to the wire as a result of small changes in the agreements which have to go back to the legal team re-written and reissued. Often small but important details aren’t spotted until late in the day. Hopefully this is the case here."
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Your family member's experience is not unfamiliar to me in that in the software industry, legal teams on the side of a large prospective customer can take issue with the End User License Agreement or other legal t's and c's relating to the sale. Agreed that the to'ing and fro'ing can take ages. Sometimes a lack of agreement on the final details can scupper a deal too. Depends on the details and whether the deal is worth the compromise.
The wait is heading into years, does anyone know the burn rate of the company, what everyone is getting paid?
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According to financial results end of Q2 (June), they were losing $1.6m per half year (for H1 2023) with $3.5m cash left then. So expect issues end of H1 24 ?
======================= from previous RNS
The Extension is conditional on the following:
· Orcadian's submission, before 30 November 2023, of an application for NSTA consent to:
o assignment of an interest in P2244 to the Proposed Operator; and
o appointment of the Proposed Operator as operator of P2244.
· If NSTA consents are granted, the assignment of the interest in P2244 to the Proposed Operator must be completed by 31 March 2024.
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It could be they meet the NSTA submission deadline today and RNS/report tomorrow as having done this. If we do not see an RNS tomorrow then we start to panic ??????
Re below and what needs to be done by Nov 30th:
========================================================== from RNS
The Extension is conditional on the following:
· Orcadian's submission, before 30 November 2023, of an application for NSTA consent to:
o assignment of an interest in P2244 to the Proposed Operator; and
o appointment of the Proposed Operator as operator of P2244.
· If NSTA consents are granted, the assignment of the interest in P2244 to the Proposed Operator must be completed by 31 March 2024.
At this stage there can be no guarantee that the final agreements will be entered into, or that the farm out will complete but the Directors are progressing on the basis that the agreements will be concluded and that the necessary consents will be forthcoming. Completion of the transaction would be subject to shareholder approval, pursuant to Rule 15 of the AIM Rules for Companies, and the consent of Shell and TGS to the assignment.
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i read this as meaning an application is made to the NSTA by 30th Nov but shareholder permission is necessary for the completion (due by 31st March). I think there was some speculation that shareholders will need to be consulted before month end.
Surely pumping saline water and using this in the mine operation is not environmentally sound in terms of contaminating the surrounding land. We do not own any land nor have any planning permission to site the pipeline which is going to stretch around 90-100km to the coast where we will need more land and again permission to build. Pumping up any inclines greatly adds to the cost and will require power. Moreover what does all this do for the cost per tonne of the end product. It would massively eat into profits and delay any start to operations.
We are not in the water business and probably have little collective experience in the production of such. It would be far better to co-operate with someone who is already doing this with mining in mind (dare I say OCP) . Back 3 years ago when the ESIA was first submitted, I don't believe anyone (even the AKTP - All Knowing TestPack) saw water as such an acute issue. It was never in great abundance but things have got a lot worse in the last 2-3 years. Mining is also competing for fresh water with a growing agriculture industry which exports a significant % overseas and is a massive employer.
My money is on a joint venture with someone like OCP who will help us overcome the water issue in return for a chunk of equity. They also have a lot more clout and experience with any related infrastructure planning/permissions. I am not sure though whether there are water plants that are close by or planned to be. I know there are several much further South.
>Good to see GW62 is still a leading member of the Herd.
I have my opinions both positive and negative re EML.
>What an observation from him, that the BOD will not issue a RNS on day to day activities, including any comms that may have happened with local EISA authorities. I have already reported from my comms with PFMR's at EML, that only legally required info. will be shared with us. After saying that, the Herd will try and convince investors that everything is 'hunky dory', 'nothing to see here'.
Everything is not hunky dory is it? On paper I am £k's down. No-one on this chat group would think things are OK right now. You know that.
>I would have expects a BOD of a listed company, that has already delivered little in the way of real progress over the past 8 years, ie; no shovel in ground yet, to show a little empathy with PI's, many of whom have long suffered . A RNS to the effect that ' we are in daily contact with the EISA Committee, and are putting forward solutions to water supply at site, to include bla, bla , bla.' This is not too much to ask, if true.
Such a RNS would have little value IMHO. They would not share details of such exchanges anyway. Too frequent contact would not be practical.
>Of course it is in the long term interest of BOD for co. to succeed, however, if it already aware from discussions to date, that EISA is unlikely for at least 6, 12, 18 months, then suspend shares, the BOD take an unpaid sabbatical, or better still, CEO resign, and relist when EISA approved. This will also stop illegal trading in shares when/if EISA approved.
6, 12, 18 months - they probably don't know until the committee meets and decides. Given the infamous "imminent" comment and the flak they got for that, even if they have an idea on when the committee next meets, I would be surprised if they share it for fear of it being postponed or getting peoples hopes up.