Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
Https://www.google.co.uk/maps/search/station+de+traitement+des+eaux+usees+morocco/@33.7027765,-6.12731,94648m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu
(Chrome seems to work best with this link)
If you use the above link and zoom in on the local Khemisset water plant, it is quite small and even if the BoD are proposing to take waste water for the operational mine that water is not going back into the water treatment process and hence not being converted back into clean water??
There are no other plants for many km's from what I see (Google should cover them but may not be complete). Meknes might be the closest to the East and this is a far larger treatment works but is supplying a far larger urban area.
I can see why the locals with their limited size plant might refuse or refer (or whatever happened) up to National level BUT the upside in terms of jobs etc. was going to be felt much more locally.
In the Youtube interview posted yesterday, GC alluded to the infamous "imminent" tweet so they are very cautious now about mentioning any dates or meetings where the ESIA will be discussed. Rightly so IMHO. Even if it's on the agenda and the future meeting date is known, there is always the possibility meetings can overrun or agenda items still get deferred to the next meeting.
Given the significant investment from the likes of GSM and GQC, the BoD will be under lots of pressure from II's for the "referral" of the environmental permit and the crash in SP. We should add to this in seeking clarification if we can of course.
Re Black Sheep Brewery: How many shares did the BoD have in the old business? Probably a lot so they would have lost out majorly too? How many members of the BoD have resigned or had to leave? £m's probably lost by II's too? If the new investors were not able to buy out the assets, brand, etc., there would undoubtedly be many looking for jobs.
Not great for anyone connected with Black Sheep I agree but at least the new company can try and re-build rather than the whole thing go to the wall? Unfortunately, no new investors will take on all the old debts as a going concern.
"I will still maintain that if ever EISA is approved, sp will hit 15p. That is a good time to buy since unless BOD are complete muppets, £2 will be achievable within 30 months. Ok, so you make £1.97 ps, I 'only' make £1.85"
But if you can buy 5x the number of shares (3p vs 15p) in the first place, e.g. £1k invested becomes approx. £66.7k vs. £13.3k ???
However, having said this I would not recommend anyone buy any right now..... ;-)
"Following a recent evaluation meeting, the Commission Régionale Unifiée d'Investissement ("CRUI"), the regional investment authority, was unable to approve the application, and consequently the Company has exercised its right to refer approval to the Ministerial Committee, which is chaired by the Head of Government and includes several Government ministers. "
EML has not stated the application was rejected locally but used the words above. It is not clear whether it was rejected or the regional authority made no decision. However, given the Company has "exercised its right" to refer to national level, I read into this a right to appeal.
This is very poor comms from the BoD. It leaves important issues open to speculation. And there is no guarantee EML will get this permit. It's not as simple as saying it's inevitable because otherwise it will set a dangerous precedent for future inward investment. Any precious water diverted away from other key industries like agriculture will be damaging to local communities. It will be a trade-off.
And one other thing, the RNS did not give a date for the local committee "decision" or lack of one. If this was not very recent, an earlier RNS should have been issued. I wonder if the committee minutes are published anywhere.
I think you make a fair point DShox. Reasons for the drop likely to be numerous: draining confidence in the ESIA happening, fear of price going lower, cost of living, etc. If the +ve news is the permit, I would be shocked to see the SP not at least double from here. Also depends on what, if any, concessions would have been made in order to secure it.
Hi
According to the last set of financial results, the average operational burn rate is around 3m pa with around twice that held in cash. Who know whether the burn rate for 2024 will be higher. Assuming it is, let's assume they have 18 months + left. Pls can someone double check my numbers.
TP3, thanks for asking.
While there may be nothing to hide, referring only to their obligations being fulfilled is not being 100% transparent if anything else was discussed.
As for what is really happening behind the scenes, the simple truth is we just don't know. I know comparisons are made with other mining companies at a similar stage but surely EML is not the only mining company looking for environment permits in Morocco right now? It would be interesting to know about their situation. Looking forward to the quarterly update in July.
Agree. Seems pointless to me. I guess "Results of the AGM" is concerned with passing resolutions whereas "Minutes" will be a follow-up but it does not even list what has been passed. It was only this morning so was not expecting anything yet.
Nice calculation TP3. Further figures in the EML PPT reveal an average annual projected production of 735k tonnes of MoP. So in the earlier years, I would be surprised if they hit that figure? But any numbers from HFR will have the same issue.
In 2020, EML stated a US$158/t number for ASIC (All in costs) for mining/transportation (Casablanca) in the FS. Surely that number must be significantly higher now plus the market price now is around $400 p/t. Trending downwards. Profits per tonne are more squeezed now. But who knows what will happen before production starts (assuming it does).
Re C1 costs, I did find Slide 9 in the PPT below on per tonne costs. Hope this helps?
https://www.emmersonplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/EML-Corporate-Presentation-Feb23-02.02.23.pdf
Looks like approx. $60 p/t for mining but if you reduce by approx. 20% due to salt credits, it could be around $50. Am I correct in my interpretation here?
TP from 12th Jan:
"I would have thought the opposite. With a time scale of ' things are expected to move in Q1', I can see a steady decline for a 4-6 weeks."
TP was right but the decline is nigh on 10 weeks now. That was not predicted. With hindsight, I wished I had sold at a higher price too. Without hindsight, who knows with this company what's going to be announced from one month to the next? I would rather buy in low (as I have done) and sit on them for a while rather than try to time the market. A paper loss is simply that.
Any bold predictions for Q2?
We simply do not know the finer details of negotiations between EML and the authorities on the subject of water usage for the approval of the EISA. Whatever strategy EML has proposed may be subject to further refinement to get it over the line. I am not sure I would go public on the current water strategy if it may undergo further tweaks. I can imagine any negotiations can be quite sensitive at this stage so again going public with the details could be inappropriate. This is conjecture on my part but could be a possible justification on EML's part for not sharing right now.
I share concerns that we may be bought out early but presumably there has to be a willingness to sell first. Don't forget the board and major investors have far more to gain on this project staying the course to production that we do. I realize of course that we are dependent on the authorities granting future permits and providing general co-operation but as others have stated, it is not in their interests long-term to jeapardize future foreign investment into the Moroccan mining industry.