Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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With no knowledge or comment on ‘late 2024’ below, I think it is reasonable to think any ‘deal’ on the ESIA will realistically take two to six months.
I say ‘deal’ as it will need regulatory ‘agreement’ that the new technique is sufficient and that will take some scrutiny and internal meetings and diary time.
I dont think I misinterpreted the video. I don't think the ESIA will come till late 2024. I don't think they want to telegraph it because the SP will tank further. Which is why people have pulled out again. This dogs going further down for another few months by the feel of things.
Hi trev79,
I doubt whether EML will RNS on the meeting date. It would presume that the ESIA will be discussed and decided on within this meeting and there is no guarantee of this. GC has taken a battering on the use of words like "imminent" in the past so they will be cautious about anything related to timescales unless something is definite.
Possibly the more relevant date is the 5 weeks since the "New KMP Processing Route" was announced.
It is all great stuff, makes the compelling business case all the stronger. However we just need the ESIA to be awarded. It's 6 months since the earthquake in 2 days, so it's getting beyond comprehension to think that business as usual in government has not returned. The ministerial meeting to determine this and hopefully award this must therefore surely now be scheduled, but we have no information at all on this. Very very frustrating for long term holders.
Does anyone expect an RNS when the company become aware of the date? I don't think there will be one.
At this rate I'm expecting yet another quarterly update RNS to arrive before the RNS we have all been needing for almost 3 years drops.
I continue to hold as I can't see any fair minded reason now why the ESIA will not be awarded now and surely soon, but I just hope I am right as there is no future business with very significant revenues and profits without it.
Good points. What doesn’t kill your makes you stronger. More time at planning allows tighter plans. Just need to get the ESIA.
Hopefully some have now read the note. I have been investing in miners for the last 15yrs & seen numerous research notes but this is easily the best one I have read.
Not only does it deal with the financials but it also goes further into the new fertilizers EML have in Struvite & Vivianite.
A couple more interesting nuggets from the note include,
Finance wise at the end of 2023 Emmerson had around $2m left.
Suggestions on a raise, post ESIA (8p+), need around $6m to see them through to financial close.
Crop trials of the new fertilizer are taking place, results in an upcoming FS.
The FS will/may also extend mine life as well as giving lower cut off grades making it possible for larger mining machinery to be used producing extra amounts of potash.
There is a possibility of processing Struvite into Dittmarite, which is a more expensive fertilizer.
EML could also blend MOP with struvite to create a multi mineral fertilizer.
Vivianite 'could' have the potential to be used in LFP lithium batteries.
As I said it really is an interesting read & worth having a look at if you are invested here.
OCP had a representative on the committee that was ‘unable’ to approve the ESIA, if I recall correctly.
I don't think that's quite correct. It's fair to say that the research is based a great deal on Emmerson data, but its only paid for in the sense that Liberum need to show they can market shares in any fund raise - selling them to Liberum clients. We can't get the research unless we are Liberum clients (or pay Research Tree).
Its obvious that Emmerson were not exactly open with shareholders with regard to the water issue. But their use of Grey (Waste) Water and their new KMP process looks like a late winner (worthy of Nunez) with respect to the ESIA.
OTP are (apparently) already digging next door, so I guess they have no worries ESIA wise.
Not worth the paper it is written on. Paid for by the company, and using all company details.
Yes, we are all aware that the 'new' KMA project should be a game changer for water requirements. It ticks all the boxes. We have to assume, because the BOD insist on mushroom management, that the KMA has been integrated into a new proposal for water usage put to the relevant authority. I would have thought, and indeed hoped, that the authorities understand the urgency of EML's position. A couple of years have passed with little, or nothing done to get this mine to the start line, never mind the finishing line. A realistic, and pessimistic time sale is end of April to get a definitive answer on EISA. Who knows, the BOD may actually release something about what it is doing. However, do not hold your breath, It has form.
I belive that all of these research notes are pointless, I've been reading these for the last 3 years regarding Emmerson, the facts of the matter are, without a permit the company is worthless and if the process takes to long then operating costs will cripple them, forcing tge need a share offer and in turn lowering the share price further. Now I've had my doom and gloom say, I'd like to see Emmerson explore other avenues within the mining industry, maybe having a look at other aftrican countries for mining permits and soil samples to broaden their portfolio.
Potash Prolapse
Sorry ..... lower (risked) target of 17.8p.
Very little "research" is independent. It really marketing material for share issues etc. So you always have to read it and form your own view. Sirius was and still is a massive gamble because of the vast Capex costs and the unknown value of the end product. Don't think of Sirius product as Potash as it contains only a small amount of Potash (circa 15% from memory). Only one company sells Polyhalite in small quantities - so its not at all obvious what the price might be when there is massive amounts available.
My own view is that the valuation of Emmerson (by Liberium) is very easy (relative to Sirius) - short time to production, low Capex etc. etc.. They also use NPV(10) rather than NPV(8) (used by Emmerson on 1 Feb) this gives a much lower valuation of 30p / share and a lower (risked) target of 18.9p.
Their business model is also to take a share in the company they go onto provide corporate finance services for, so there’s a double conflict there: working for EML and themselves.
Not independent research. If it’s true great! Thinking about the very wise comments recently about year end, I wonder what the purpose is. One valid purpose could be to anchor investors or prime expectations on value ahead of a fund raise; to drum up and to get new investors excited. Joining two dots that might not go together there but just a thought.
A pre-arranged fund raise to land immediately after an ESIA grant would also be good timing for EML, so could be wise preparation for that also.
I seem to recall Liberium giving positive forecasts for Sirius. Are these research notes any better than sucking your finger and holding it up to the wind?
not sure how many of you have seen it but there is a new research note out today from liberum. it's a hefty 27p document. unfortunately the link i received has expired but i can give you some of the highlights.
the main highlight being calling the kmp process as 'game changing" & raising the short term target from 11.5p to 17.8p
https://*********************/companies/uk/industrial-metals-nonferrous/emmerson-plc/research/liberum/liberum-emmerson-kmp-game-changer/1_1020571
Swazers. 'My charts have delivered 65% of gains. LOL. No they have not. RNS have made the gains, and losses, and only RNS's. Your chart was drawn AFTER the KMA RNS. And the substantial rise from KMA was 3,4 days in the making, not your charts.
4. One to add is the OCP project getting its ESIA. OCP is running the project through its subsidiary JESA and I don’t know whether we’ll see the same transparency at each stage as with EML, being listed.
I see 3 more or less basic scenarios with EML over the coming months:
1. ESIA permit is awarded at national level. Forget your resistance levels, it will smash through those no issue at all.
2. ESIA permit is refused at national level (ok, there may be an option to reapply). I think this will severely test your elevated support line if not dive through this no issue.
3. No decision on ESIA. I cannot believe the support lines and resistance lines will simply move up and up over time against this kind of background.
Have I missed anything?
I think they earned their wages this month with the "New Processing Route".
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EML/scoping-study-on-breakthrough-new-processing-route-k6wv2789hdm2uzy.html
Another month of wages payed out and nothing from this shower! Easy money for doing nothing but waiting.
The brown envelope can't be big enough?
Just put in another £200, to see the effect on the price . Showing as a sell on the trades. Slight movement of the goggle page.
Hope you all have good weekend.
We just need the ESIA as simple as that. Without that we are nothing, with it we are a completely different company with extremely good fundamentals.
As a long term shareholder slight movements up in the share price without substantive news whilst not unwelcome mean not a lot to me as I like many others have an average much higher than the value today.
It is almost 6 months since the earthquake, GC must have had some notification of when the meeting will take place now?