RE: Elephant in the room28 Sep 2023 12:10
One bankrupting factor at a time please GW62! Ha ha.
2022 was a 13 year market high and exceptional so we can't compare with that, the only shame is that we weren't in market and able to pay debt down with the profits!
I saw Fitch report that, "The unchanged medium-term and mid-cycle assumptions continue to reflect the pressure on pricing from additional Canadian capacity and the continued flows of discounted product from Russia and Belarus."
Also, there's a chart here:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/439006/total-demand-for-potash-fertilizer-worldwide-prediction/
There are some changes since our last financial assessment in that we have additional productions; I think those weren't captured. However, couldn't we also distinguish two things:
- ESIA is existential because it's a requirement to operate; while
- product prices go to the level of profit, but I don't think go to outright viability, given our lower cost of access.
Is it wilful blindness to say that we don't need to consider this now because the uplift from simply getting to market would afford most shareholders a good return (even if less stellar than at the recent higher prices)?
Where it may make a difference is to say we may prefer to take in more equity finance vs. the 30/70 discussed but that would again be at a significantly higher share price than today.
Phosphate batteries also seem to be becoming a reality and Morocco wants to be in the electric cars market, so could as demand (not confirmed).
Over generous to say this is one for later, post ESIA?
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