Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

Influencing The Courts a la Sisi Many Egyptians are outraged. “Judges have their own will, and they will impose it through the rule of law,” said Mohamed Mansour, the head of the Judges’ Club. Some have threatened to strike. Members of Egypt’s State Council say that they will not supervise the next parliamentary elections. The Supreme Constitutional Court could even reject the law altogether, setting up a showdown with the president. Defenders of the bill argue that the government needs more powers to fight terrorism. Trying suspects takes “five or ten years”, which allows them to “give orders from their cells”, Mr Sisi complains. But under the state of emergency, declared after two church bombings in April, Mr Sisi already has the power to try civilians in special courts which he runs. Egyptians who are found guilty in these proceedings cannot appeal. Mr Sisi’s real motive may be to block the promotion of judges who irritatingly rule againt him. Yehia al-Dakroury, who had been expected to become chief judge of the State Council in July, ruled against the president’s handover of the islands. Anas Omara, who was next in line to lead the Court of Cassation, revoked the Brothers’ death sentences (he would also have chaired the electoral commission). During his three years in office Mr Sisi has dismantled most checks on his power. Protests are banned. Harsh laws limit the activities of NGOs. Critical media outlets have been shut down and muckraking journalists locked up. Even al-Azhar University, the Islamic world’s most prestigious centre of learning, has come under pressure. Another bill in parliament threatens to impose greater government control over that already tame institution. Judges in Egypt persevered after Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt’s old dictator, purged nearly 200 in 1969. They extracted concessions during the 30-year reign of Hosni Mubarak, such as the power to supervise elections. But in Mr Sisi they may have encountered their stiffest challenge yet. http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21721657-latest-effort-muzzle-independent-bodies-sisi-takes-egypts-judiciary

07.05.2017 There is no more info out other than what I found yesterday, so everyone would try to guess the reasons behind the SCC's decision. At the end of the hearing yesterday, the SCC just announced the decision, there was no explanations or reasons, and as it sent it back to the commissioners, there was no date set for the next hearing. As you all know, the commissioners report is advisory, the court could ignore it, as we have seen before in CEY case at the administrative court, also the SCC does not have to listen to arguments from both sides, the court would only listen to the lawyers if the court thought it was necessary. My thought is that maybe the court saw some good legal points in the argument of the lawyer defending law 32, he raised two massive points (the right to file the case and the validity of the parliamentary approval). The lawyer defending law 32, Mr Shawky Elsayed, is one of Egypt's top constitutional experts and he is used to appear in top cases, he even represented the owner of Madinaty. The commissioners report was so negative and anti law 32 and raised many points, so maybe the SCC found it too hard to ignore it and brush it aside, especially with law 32 not going down very well with many people.. so may be the court decided to refer the case back to the commissioners, with the points raised by Mr Elsayed, for them to have another look and consider his views. It would look much better and would be accepted easily by everyone if both could agree on the decision, whether it was to approve or not. I personally was expecting the SCC to find law 32 unconstitutional and cancel it, especially after reading the commissioners report, but now and after yesterday's development, I'm not sure, because if that was the court intention and with the commissioners report recommending so, they could have easily adjourned for next meeting and ruled to cancel it, for them to send it back it could only mean that they are still thinking about it. All this is just pure guessing and my personal thoughts, so I could be totally wrong. I will keep my eyes peeled..

but is towards the top of its trading range over the last year in sterling, apart from the spike in September of last year. No doubt the market will notice this at some point. As I often say, CEY is priced in £ so it is the £pog that matters.

Thanks Siko for popping in when we most need you. Based on those figures I think the quarter will be around 120k ozs. That wouldnt be too bad would it? about 25k ozs below rough target, also it was Ramadam and I believe the work slows a little during this period, that was mid may-mid june. I alwaysthought there would be a lull as QE was tapered and interest rates slowly rose, this is the sweet period, but the combination of those two can only spell headwinds for economies, couple with trumps tariffs. Fed has tapered $180bn in last 9 months, we move to $40bn a month for next month and by October $50bn. by December $450bn in total, its starting to ratchet up.

Thanks Siko for popping in when we most need you. Based on those figures I think the quarter will be around 120k ozs. That wouldnt be too bad would it? about 25k ozs below rough target, also it was Ramadam and I believe the work slows a little during this period, that was mid may-mid june. I alwaysthought there would be a lull as QE was tapered and interest rates slowly rose, this is the sweet period, but the combination of those two can only spell headwinds for economies, couple with trumps tariffs. Fed has tapered $180bn in last 9 months, we move to $40bn a month for next month and by October $50bn. by December $450bn in total, its starting to ratchet up.

Some of our newer members may find it interesting Commissioners: L32 UNCONSTITUTIONAL Today 08:42 https://cms.shorouknews.com/news/view.aspx?cdate=27032017&id=43e23d70-2608-44d9-9e44-e71ec7eea937 http://www.dostor.org/1348988 http://www.elwatannews.com/news/details/1960719 http://www.elwatannews.com/news/details/1960899 The commissioners have submitted their report regarding law 32 to the SCC. They recommended the unconstitutionality of the whole of law 32. The SCC has set the 6th May to consider the case. The commissioners filed a report of 175 pages explaining the reasons behind their recommendation. The main points were: The law was not approved by two thirds of the MPs, as it was only approved 374 out of 596 MPs. The law violates the right to litigate. The law represents interference in the affairs of justice and an attack on the independence of the judiciary. Time scale The SCC does not normally rule on the first date, it normally takes one or two sessions. In the demonstration law the ruling came 2 months after the first date. The first one was in October, and then they had another one in November, then the ruling in December. If the SCC agreed with the commissioners, then law 32 would be cancelled, so the CEY case would go back with the SAC. As we know the case is suspended now, the next step would be for one of the two sides to apply to restart the case; the SAC sets a date and starts again wherever it stopped before the suspension. If the SCC ruled invalidating law 32 around June, it would be Ramadan and the beginning of summer holiday in Egypt where courts are kind of closed and normally reopen in Sept-Oct, and that's when I think our SAC case could restart, but I have no idea how long it could take. In ideal world you would think that the SAC had suspended the case when they collected all the necessary information for the ruling, so really it should not be long. The only thing I could think of that could cause a further delay would be if the members of the SAC changed by then as of course new ones may need time to look at the case again, but as we know this is the Egyptian legal system and nothing is logic when it comes to time. Once again, all this would happen IF the SCC agreed with the commissioners regarding invalidating law 32, and to be honest I think they would because their report is too bad.

Hi Siko, Great to hear from you and I hope that you are well! Thank you for the update on the diesel case, at least that's is one outstanding situation a bit nearer being concluded! .

But cey can weather a fall much better and longer than many rivals, as long as it remains low cost. Some like OMI are already collapsing and when gold furns up will be too late. However the share price can wobble all over the place in the meantime: I remember buying cey when gold price was a couple of hundred dollars lower but costs were lower and profits around where they are now, pre profit share and price was around 50p. Of course like all I hope gold turns up, and oil proce falls, just on balance of current world economic prospects down seems likelier, but who knows......it catches one out.

Just following gold prices down.

I still think cey is the best gold miner to be in, priced about right and with no debt and good cash flow so better placed to see out a falling gold price if that is what we get. But each Monday I wake up in gloom as the markets open again and the fall continues, at least we get the weekends off. We have lost 40% from the top, amd most miners seem down around a third so far as costs rise and gold doesnt, with their falling prices predicting further falls. For me now hinges on whether worry about inflation beats worry about rising rates and qe reversal. Qe was always going to be a dividend for us, no one knows quite how bad it will be when taken away, but so far gold is saying not great and I fear future Mondays

Hi Sotolo, I have not been following the company's news closely recently as I have been out for a while, but after your question I had a quick look at the local media. According to the media reports, Mr. Yousef El-Raghy reported that production in March was 1.4 ton, In April 1.2 ton and in May 1.0 ton. The company is aiming for 1.5 ton in June, so it seems like the bottom was in May and the recovery is on its way. Also when I spoke to someone at the mine a couple of weeks ago he was confident of overcoming the recent production blip. Sorry I don't know much about profits and costs, so I can't add anything to those 2 points. My view is definitely this was a short term issue which should not affect the long term future (+20yrs) and it had created a good buying opportunity for many people to get on board. (I'm only talking about the company's fundamentals. The POG is a different factor of course). Good luck to everyone here.. I hope it works out well for you. Siko

Diesel getting too expensive for mining ?.. here a thought https://im-mining.com/2017/06/28/e-dumper-electric-mining-truck-becoming-reality-switzerland/

More chance of Gold getting to $1400, then England getting to the next round!.

That’s a relief Siko. And means we know longer need to worry about the diesel case! But world oil price has doubled and oil is a large proportion of costs so still keen to know how it has affected CEY as presumably added maybe 20% to costs, partly hence increased pressure on miners who now need $1400 gold to be where they were in profitability with $1300 gold? Thanks so much as ever Siko. How do you see production, costs and profits going? You always seem so wise as well as decent.

Didn't Mexico do well? - Wow! - They could well be the dark-horse of the tournament. As for Germany, They have a history of not doing well in Russia. I don't think England need be frightened if they do happen to meet them.

The subsidised diesel price in Egypt was increased yesterday by 50% ( from 3.65 to 5.50 LE), but this will not affect Centamin as the company has been paying the international price since 2012 and the company currently is not benefiting from any subsidy. Egypt aims to completely lift the subsidy according to instructions from the IMF, which means the deisel fuel case would be meanless soon and would only apply to the arrears that Centamin had been asked to pay for the period between 2009-2012, which Centamin is challenging in court.

http://www.mining.com/web/one-more-sign-of-manipulation-in-the-gold-market/ Conclusion and Outlook for 2014 As demonstrated in our Open Letter to the World Gold Council, there was a large supply-demand imbalance in 2013. The evidence presented here suggests that the decline in the price of gold in mid-2013 and the subsequent raid of gold ETFs (but not silver ETFs) was engineered by Western Central Banks to help solve their physical gold supply problem. However, the resulting increase in Indian gold demand exacerbated the problem. The solution was to restrict Indians from importing gold by all means possible in order to help the Western Central Banks regain control of the gold market. However, the rate of drain in gold ETFs cannot continue forever; at the current pace of 930 tonnes/year, there are less than two years of gold left in ETFs. Moreover, Indians have proved highly creative at finding ways around import restrictions.10 Smuggling is on the rise and will most likely increase as smugglers become more sophisticated. Overall, we believe that interest in physical gold from emerging markets will remain a driving force. Besides, mine production is unlikely to grow, as reflected by the significant decrease in capital expenditures expected for the major gold producers (Figure 5). Accordingly, we believe that the manipulation of gold prices by central banks, as demonstrated by the above analysis, cannot continue in 2014. Therefore, we expect substantial increases in the price of precious metals as the true shortages become obvious. 2018 and the WGC have done nothing! Wonder why?

what the WGC is really all about (jobs for the boys) and it isn't fair price for miners! http://www.mining.com/top-south-african-miners-leave-the-world-gold-council-28925/ Some comments- Good job South Africa. My opinion is the God Council doesn't have the miners at heart. What have they done for the industry but publish data and not much else. The gold mining industry needs an activist reprsentative who makes sure that the miners are getting a fair deal for their output, and not what the CME says the value is. Transparency is lacking in the Gold Council and who it represents is gold buyers and CB's efforts to control the price. "Price is what you pay, value is what you get" (Warren Buffett) - the WGC has not delivered value to their members, nor to the industry, since the previous excellent management team was ousted around 2009.

Thanks as ever Mr Tibbs. This is the article on 50% diesel rise at pumps. https://gulfnews.com/news/mena/egypt/egypt-hikes-fuel-prices-1.2237582 Would that add 10% to aisc and is that on top of rise we were told of? Expect my claculations are potty. I usually am All best Sotolo

http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Kitco-News/1993/2018-06-15/RERUN-Gold-Is-Where-It-Should-Be---Pierre-Lassonde#_48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY_=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kitco.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DKitco-News

Bought at the going rate from Chevron last I heard. I have asked you questions and will remind them. Tibbs

I read that the price of diesel was increase 50% last week in Egypt though I dont know if Cey pay open market prices. So Tibbs just womdering did you ever get an answer to my big question before your chat to the investment relations person on how much it is lower production and how much mining inflation that is dramtically increasing CEY AISC On the back of a fag packet I reckon oil usually accounts for something like 15% of gold miners’ direct costs, and over 20% if you take cost of oil in making the hugely expensive tires lime etc so say 20% for v rough ballpark. Then in last 2 years in Egyptian pounds international oil price is up four fold. If we say calculate in sterling where we count our profit, it has still doubled which would mean, if my small head has it right an increase of maybe 20% in costs, so would need price of gold at least $1400 to have profits we had. Hence price of cey down 40% from peak? Does anyone else think costs are the problem and why miners tumbling as gold in sterling euro etc terms pootling along or have I got it completely wrong and should we all be focussing only on what they sell their gold for, ie what gold price is doing which is not huge in basket of currencies (yet) and a bit of a fall or increase in production?

Well our cey shares have certainly been risky recently - the unexpected often happens with miners from the political to geology, and as to the metal although holding gold itself in the extremely long term is not risky, and a brilliantly consistent hedge against inflation, within our lifetimes it certianly is risky. If you cna make a real rturn with cash why risk it, you havent been able to for the past few years with QE, hence the rise in gold 3year ago, but this has petered out as buyers have seen interest rates rising and qe ending. Another thwack on Fridya with Draghis announcement. For me the only two questions are first if Cey can increase production and reduce costs to increase profits, without politics upsetting the apple cart, and second where is the price of gold going, it seems to mainly be affected by where REAL interest rates are expected to go - politiclal worries also have an affect but seems to be very short term often justifying what the market wnats to do, unless an armageddon war. See the following: “In the second half of the 1970s, both nominal interest rates and inflation rates were high. What is important, is that inflation exceeded the nominal returns on bonds, therefore investors shifted their capital into gold. While real interest rates were negative, the price of gold rose, reaching its ultimate high. However, as soon as Paul Volcker hiked short-term nominal interest rates and real interest rates came back into positive territory, the gold boom ended. Interestingly, the significant downtrend in the gold market continued until 2001, when the Fed, trying to reinflate a stock bubble, cut nominal interest rates so much that real interest rates fell to zero. As we can see in the graph, the consolidation from mid-2006 was caused by the hike in real interest rates. However, in late 2007 the Fed cut nominal rates again, and then real rates plummeted and the gold price simultaneously soared. Chart 1: Real gold prices and real interest rates (as yields on 3-month Treasury bills less CPI inflation) from 1973 to 2013. Gold price and real interest rates Source: gold.org Summing up, changes in real interest rates are crucial to understanding movements in the price of gold.” Us real interest rates are currently very low despite the rises so far, as inflation grows. Now we have been told lots of US interestrate rises over next 3 years, but whta about inflation’s direction with dollars being torn up instead of printed. Hence FT

i would love to be able to help you, however I am not a qualified financial advisor and although I would like to influence a rise in Centami it would be morally wrong to encourage you to take such a risk with your portfolio. I am sure with portfolio of your size you have been around a while and know all too well what can happen to peoples stops on a Monday open up As you know we have members on here who have faith in the markets and those regulating them, I lost my faith in both some years ago when it became very apparent that the regulation's protect the system and certainly not the likes of us. Look at recent events we had cracking results and and production guidance from a trusted company that had always under-promised and over delivered, so there was no reason to think anything was going to change. Three weeks later a RNS from the same company give out confusing reasons why the previous guidance had been reduced drastically and so the market punished the share with an immediate and severe knock back that has continued to the present. Should Centamin have made us aware sooner of the knackered LHDR,,possibly but even if they had done so the share price would have still been punished. In hindsight if any of us had thought to ring investor relations a couple of weeks after the very positive Q! outlook to confirm everything was in order with production would Centamin have told us about the problems? More than likely not, even if they had wanted to because that may be regarded as giving the investor an advantage to sell out or open a short position for instance. So we have to appreciate that although it frustrating that investor relations can't always tell us as much as they may like to, that is understandable ,because not all Centamin share holders are in for long term like the majority of us and so giving a running commentary on production to us may not be in our interests, there are others that would use such information against the company and us! This is the problem we face ,we are in for the long term, but that isn't how the markets operate today,they want results and profits in 24 hrs or less! What is my opinion on the LHDR , it's back up and running, when will the extra one arrive, that will be announced by the company in due course, as will the final commissioning of the new crusher.. All of us long term older know that production will be restored and increase, that future threats to drilling output will have been mitigated and that long term ore grades are guaranteed . What will happen to the POG , that is more tricky, but as things stand now I believe there could well be a major reset perhaps around October time, but who knows far too many vested interests in keeping the present paper system going! I am still very angry with Cenatmin management for such an avoidable and monumental cock up as they have just made, but I really don't think they will ever make the same mistake again. So ove

There's a phrase often used in the scriptures - "And it came to pass" - We are where we are and we can't change it. - We can't use 'Democracy 'because that has been hi-jacked. - Democracy has become a tool of the financial/corporate world. A world that has control of all the levers that matter in a modern economy, not the least of which are the politicians themselves. - We can pretend that it is not so, but that is just a state of mind, and even that is controlled by the influence of that financial/corporate world that owns the means to influence thoughts. - I'm afraid "It has come to pass" and our survival depends upon our acceptance of this truth. - We adapt or die.