Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Every time this company has a blip, there is always a rush of new ,self proclaimed ,"Statisticians" ,explaining the reasons for the SP to drop even lower. ;-)
Strange. Lol.
Hi Sotolo. A very rarely watch the opening bell on L2 but did so yesterday and sold at 8:02 for 1.18956p . As I said , thanks to the poster who alerted re the ridiculous 82p valuation. I will wait for things to calm down.
Shanta looks as if its the only riser. Poly, Fres, Humm, HOC, Serabi, AAZ, Greatland etc all down. Centamin is not alone getting hit.
So frustrating to watch a month's or so profit wiped out in one day on what it seems to me was good/neutral news. POG at $1900 just adds to the frustration - we are basically at the same levels where we were when POG was $1670. Ridiculous. Does anybody have any idea about when the new licenses might be awarded. I think there were posts a couple of months ago with links to Egyptian press saying that there was a lot of progress in there. Don't know - really starting to thing that a bid with 20% premium will save us all from this misery.
Quite so Momo2058,
Although I heard yesterday that the Liberian comedian is working to an agenda, Mr Gnome has the firm summed up perfectly, in a perfect world certain facts wouldn't be know to brokers analyst's prior to official realise by the company, but with a company the size of Centamin and considering the number of "Rat's in the kitchen" in the past, not to mention how leaky things can be in Eygpt it would be naive to assume the release of this note was'nt part of a carefully planned and intended undermining of returning market investor confidence as a result of Martin Horgan's strategy for the future.
Unfortunately the distrust and suspicions caused by the years of Pardey and associates inept mine management,inconsistent performance and deliberate withholding of facts ,or even deceit of share holders and the market has made it all to easy to get a bad opinion accepted about the comapny, rather than a good one, Liberian have exploited this perceived weakness whilst they are able to for whatever reason.
Martin Horgans announcement seemed to be an honest acknowledgment of the state of the West African assets and his intent to concentrate on what is in the best interests of Centamin and dispose of anything that is'nt.
Tibbs
Thank you Mr Tibbs. Some may prefer a %age levy but we are where we are.
Personally it doesn't seem too bad.
All costs covered and 50% split of the surplus after royalties but no tax.
Sentiment changes fast, in my opinion the damage was done due to the ridiculous broker target and not the rns. Nothing is 100% regarding the asset in Africa. They might even oven ready it and sell it concentrating on new assets in Egypt. If they get licences for surrounding lands to Sukari that would be fantastic. All other brokers employ a buy rating much higher than today’s crazy price....it’s a good entry that’s for sure
Marybr190 understood but the topic is Fair Value SP not valuing a Company.
There may be similarities but the two are not same and should not be confused
Of course the Fair Value SP consists of facts + subjective / reasoned variables
It is a calculation from which a maximum, minimum and likely can be produced.
As Tornadotony and Sotolo have kindly explained
Nothing to do with Market Price.
Aha playingtheoods, maybe I bought the shares you sold yesterday morn, I payed 114.6
AS usual a well reasoned explanation. Thanks Sotolo.
The frustration is well understood and shared Palayintheodds.
I am well invested and sometimes buy and sell but tend to take a longer view.
Don't beat yourself up too much. It is very difficult to predict a banana skin event as happened this week.
Thanks very much Tornadotony much appreciated.
A sensible and reasoned calculation.
It helps tremendously to understand and gives credibility to your figures.
Also to serve as a basis for some "what if" calculations for Fair Price SP
It's burst back through the 50day EMA twice now. So frustrating !! Sorry to all non chartists but had to rant. I was lucky to sell yesterday about 8:05. Many thanks to the poster who alerted us all to the 82p farce following a less than encouraging update. Going to watch for now. I was so convinced to stay long. I will be back in at some point. Good luck all.
News is already in the market.
Based upon a long term price of $1750 gold per ounce.
1. Sukari measured resources at 7.45M last year. $125 x 3.725M on 50% conversion to reserves = $465M.
2. Indicated and inferred Resources at Sukari $60 x 2.75M= $165M
3. West Africa assets value at least $100M.
4. The company has $313M in the bank as of 30 March 2021.
5. Sukari Reserves are 4.4M ounces and with a full mine fleet and plant in place x $200 = $880M (50% depreciation of all plant and property is $400M value).
$1923M = £1354M shares in issue = 1157M = 117p
Liberium assumed no additional ore bodies which I fundamentally disagree and the company March issue said there was from exploration work done in Q1. Say it is a reserve of 150,000 ounces found over two years. 117p+ 2p = 119p
All Liberium has actually done is take last year published net assets and took last year sterling dollar rate at 1.35 instead of 1.42 and guess what you get 82p.
If he does there is talk of another USD6 Billion then it will be interesting to see if this has a positive effect on Gold prices -should do.
Perhaps then we will return to full value rather than a discounted one from what one analyst has said!
Thanks for the reply.Your comments make very good sense.Technically, a bounce around 110p is seeable.But with the negative broker comments and the steepness of the fall,one wonders if if it can build a base from here,from which to continue upwards.
It could well be a bumpy ride,at least in the short term.
I rebought some too and will add more if the price drops.
Thought you’d all like to know I’ve just bought in again
Pipe dreamer you asked for tips on working out what Cey is worth
I they to work out the profit for this year, next year and 2023 at this gold price, multiply by say 12 to get a reasonable price now and in next couple of years
then work it out for gold at 1600
and gold at 2200
I make this year profit at current price around £60k profit meaning our share price is too high
But £120k in 2023 which makes our shares cheap and too low
Conclusion, Cey is still a bit above what it should be now but way below what it should be in 2023 at current gold price, which helps explain current sellers who just don't believe we will double in 2023 given Centamin's history of setbacks.. I though our price was beginning to look forward to 2023 so picking up Of course if gold price rises or falls that changes things, and makes it better or worse. So I hold even if the price is a bit high, for higher gold and higher 2023 profits all imho
could also argue also that the uptrend has failed despite and the downtrend continues despite the PM rallies. I feel more comfortable adding at £1.
As I said no science, fair value is based on estimates and assumptions which are at a point in time and subject to change. Not to be relied upon solely as recoverable.
Fair value represents the estimated worth of various assets and liabilities that must be listed on a company's books.
Key Takeaways
In investing, fair value is a reference to the asset's price, as determined by a willing seller and buyer, and often established in the marketplace.
Fair value is a broad measure of an asset's worth and is not the same as market value, which refers to the price of an asset in the marketplace.
In accounting, fair value is a reference to the estimated worth of a company's assets and liabilities that are listed on a company's financial statement
HTH
As an FCA for almost 40 years, I have seen that fair value is based on so many assumptions that when these are tested can come up with different fair value valuations as such.
Amazingly with shares fair value can also change, in an instant systemically, eg Trainline where the fair value changed on news.
Well CEY is half price again from the highs last year
Auscon yes agreedthere is that to it as well. So clearly market price is not linked to Fair Value.
I am hoping Adrian77 will "put his money where his mouth is" and explain / substantiate his Fair Value SP calculation.
That way we can have a reasoned discussion
So far the silence is deafening.