George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
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Hi Sotolo,
Most of us quite rightly try to adopt a policy in the first instance of assuming the best in other people, or at least that they will uphold the same principles and morale values as we practice towards them, or even just give people the benefit of the doubt.
Having said that we realise that people are human,not god's and so like us they will make mistakes at times, even though procedures have been followed through things can go wrong or despite all the tests and precautions the unexpected happens, certainly in mining.
I think we must agree that unless you are a day trader when it comes to investing in any company that it is essential to have some belief in the the integrity (Trustworthiness) and the professional competence of the management to operate to the highest industry standards to deliver on whatever they have promised (guidance).
With those facts or values in mind we made the decision to invest in Centamin, even accepting more time's than most of us will care to renumber the supposedly industry standard professional reasoning from Josef El Raghy Chairman and Andrew Pardey CEO as to why the promised guidance was missed by some considerable amount, or somebody had forgotten to make sure there were spare parts for critically important plant (LHDR) or at least a credible contingency plan to mitigate production risk.
In short these two senior company officer's might be suspected of being incompetent or inept or they were intentionally using sharp practice rather than best practice at Sukari in order to pump up results in the short term.
Whatever their reasons , neither can be regarded as uneducated, unintelligent, so they were aware of what they were up to for short term best interest but as events have demonstrated certainly not the best long term interests of Centamins trusting share holders.
It seems though that the Sukari operation (Scheme)was carefully orchestrated to lull shareholders and the market into a false sense of security by under promising and then over delivering for the initial period, (as we are now aware the price for this was mounting up in piles of uncleared waste) Long term share holders will remembe the 2018 Egyptian media propaganda of record breaking output , unfortunately though this was quickly followed by the guidance warning due to hitting unexpected low grades ( which Pardey was aware of in 2016).
Pardey bamboozled the share holders and the market with technically termed excuses and colored charts with promises of soon to be published results of excellent unexploited West African assets that may soon be contributing to future Centamin guidance.
After past deceptions I am skeptical about these West African claims, Marin Horgan is right to be wary, why not sell them or contract some out and concentrate on at least running Sukari and other new concessions properly.
Far too much money already spent for no return d in West Africa,!
Yes apologies it’s 9c per share for this year. I read a report which said interim 1 was 6c and interim 2 also 6c. The $800-900 2021 predicted production cost is low compared to other miners too. If we see $2000+ Prices (looking likely) then profits will grow further in 2021.
Gla
Yes Lodan, last year was 12c this year divi will probably be 9c, a bit over 6p, paid for partly our of reserves as profit is not expected to cover it even reduced this year. If Cey share price was still at the peak we would be yielding 3%, about 2% paid out of profit I think, hence our share price fall. However if everything stays on course 2023 should be much better, tho it is possible capex will remain very high given the need for new resources after the recently announced big drop, plus paying to develop W Africa and new concessions, so my guess is either divis of 6 or 7% are a thing of the past, or the share price stays low as that is all people are prepared to pay for them. Imho
As far as I'm aware isn't the 2021 dividend 9 cents? Still a pretty good yield from current prices
2021 dividend is 15 cents a share so about 11p. That’s about 10% yield.
While there’s been a challenge recently it seems the company generates really good cash flow to sustain that dividend. The Sukari pit provides a steady flow and the new projects in west Africa provide growth potential.
So, no, I don’t think selling up is a good idea
INdeed SJ999
Or you could be a Collingwood supporter in the southern colonies!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3jYCxB2how
always next week as they say?
best
the gnome
Cheer up! Could be worse, you could be a Man City Supporter lol
2 to3 years in CEY as of now you have suffered, welcome to the club.
lol.
Is ownership of cey shares the equivalent of perpetual self -flagellation? It seems to have had that effect on me. As a novice investor of some 2-3 years standing no other holding has offered such disappointment to-date. From a psychological viewpoint does anyone consider it better to transfer the current balance to a core conviction holding that will hopefully offer an improved prospect of price growth or do I need to exercise more patience?
I agree with that Mr Tibbles.
As you said in your post earlier ,re waste removal, if anyone is interested take a look at the huge amount of rock face above the wall ,that may have to go.
It may be possible to use explosives and make some fall in the opposite direction , but one piece of that falling into the open pit would destroy everything in its path.
But it is not impossible given time, and care. By experts.
Whatever your reasoning for selling it was indeed fortuitous to say the least, my regret is that I didn't do likewise, but I was seduced by the analysts notes at the time and chose to believe that the mine was in a much better state than proved to be the case.
I agree some board members and senior management ar(ses es should be kicked down the road, but there is little chance of that happening, certainly no chance of giving Youssef the boot, instead that clown has just been awarded more free share's (for what exactly, possibly being the most unfit for post Sukari employee, for failing in the dereliction of professional responsibilities , being bone idle or possibly being a member of the El Raghy family) draw your own conclusions on that!
As far as the West African operations go, is it any surprise that Martin Horgan wants to carry out further investigations, if we are honest after what has transpired at Sukari how can anything that Pardey claimed as fact be relied upon, the reserve's could be complete pants as far as we know.
Possibly someone does suspect all is not as good as made out in the "Pardey Pie" reports,which is why the share price has been knocked back the past few days.
I'm sick and tired of hearing about possible West African assets , let's concentrate on sorting out Sukari and the other outstanding issues and negotiate a sensible agreement on the other possible Egyptian concessions first.
Hi Mr Tibbles!
FWIW, I agree with almost every word of your analysis. It was perhaps more by luck than skill, but I'm grateful that I sold back when the share price was over 200p. If we'd known the truth back then, the share price would never have risen so high.
I wish Martin Horgan well. He's got a big job in front of him.
I'd still like to see resignations or sackings from the board of all directors who have been in office for more than, say, two years. It's not good enough for them to plead that they didn't know what was going on.
Thank you Mr Bond,
That is also as I understand the situation, no mean task, but never the less once done will make the open pit area safer,more stable and access far easier which should provide greater working flexibility if unexpected events occur in the future..
The wall may be stabilised but my understanding is there is still much work to be done removing waste above the West wall of the pit, once that is out of the way they can continue excavating the West side of the Pit ,possibly into existing underground workings with high grades. But that is not certain as he explained in a questions and answers clip I remember.
The West side is in general much higher grade.
As they work into it the whole angle of the pit wall has to be maintained ,from top to bottom, hence the need to remove more unstable overhanging waste from the top, in order to expand the size of the pit.
I hope that explanation is clear.
Have a good break everyone.
It says in one of the previous RNS that the west wall issues should be fixed during H1 of this year and added into the scheduled mine plan for H2 this year. As H1 is nearly over could we expect an RNS soon stating that? Would do wonders for the sp I would imagine
Far too much of it in the markets, politics and the world in general!
Unfortunately Centamin share holders are now being punished by the market for choosing to believe the Andrew Pardey and associates version of what was going on at Sukari for many years.
However having acknowledged that, shareholders placed their trust and their money with the Centamin management and quite rightly they expected integrity and honesty from the CEO of the company in return .
Just how much did the board sitting in Jersey really know about the true state of the open pit we can never be sure, (pardon the pun) but I think by the time it became very apparent just what a hole Pardey and co had dug the company into at Sukari the board were frozen into a state of WTF do we do now!
I think we can assume that Pardey's tactics with the board were much the same as with share holders , each time he got into a fix he would fudge it, or carry out what should have been a temporary fix, then kick the can down the road with a plethora of coloured charts and more drilling in West Africa and more promices of great things to come next time, or the time after that!
However after yet another unexpected occurrence of naff ore grades and the self destruction the sole LHDR it was blatantly clear that Pardey was out of his depth and his Sukari side kick Youssef was as much use as chocolate teapot!
But possibly the board hey were too afraid of the consequences of admitting just how dire the situation at Sukari was becoming with no intermediate solution or way out, so Pardey went and things shambled on whilst professionals from other miners came and went
The board counted its blessing's when Martin Horgan took up post and things seemed to improve, possibility if it had been possible to carry on producing to guidance whilst the huge amount of open pit waste was gradually cleared it would have been better, but unfortunately the pooled water and potential of a pit wall collapse necessitated more urgent and comprehensive open pit remedial work.
I can understand the frustration and anger some share holders feel about the West African assets , but after the way Pardey kicked the can down the road on so many of the issues I can't say that I am surprised at Martin Horgan's announcement.
I think most of the West African assets were never managed properly, but just expensive Pardey pie in the sky diversionary tactics
True huge amounts of money has been spent on drilling, but possibly it would be better to sell off most of them or come to an arrangement with another junior minor.
My own preference is sort out Sukari, get the right agreement with the Egyptian government on the new concessions. possibly at the same time addressing other outstanding issues and then concentrate on operations in a known jurisdiction!
Once again I am really sorry that friends like Cowichan have been so dissapointed after all their enthusiasm !
Sorry Mr Gnome,
Typo, posted your name twice in my last message!
Best
Tibbs
Hi Mr Gnome,
Hi Mr Gnome,
I can't recall at time, even in the early nineties that I felt such despair about the state of things in the UK,, I wasn’t a fan of Thatcherism, but at least her cabinet had a better understanding of how to behave properly as ministers with some integrity and certainly didn't lie as much Boris Johnson and his cabinet full of odious and evil self serving parasites.
Some wonder why the Scot's are now pursuing independence from the UK, it's hardly surprising really when considering all the promises that were made to them by the Westminster Parliament during the last Scottish independence referendum been in the main broken, most likely if the SNP gains independence this may lead to the total breakup of the UK until only "Borisland" remains.
In "Borisland" the subjects live in complete isolation from the rest of the real world and they must renew their passport and apps on weekly basis, just in case they were to stray across the border, should that happen then before they are allowed back in they will have to pay to go into quarantine for 6 months and promise everyday to vote for the "Boris Party" on their return, or be called a loony leftie and deported to Scotland, once again an EU member!
“King Boris” never tells the truth and his subjects must wear all blue, read the "Boris News" tabloids, and watch Sky TV, any subject caught watching the BBC will be deported to the EU!
“King "Boris “often jets off on Caribbean holidays paid for by his Toady Brexit business friends, whilst the brain dead and those poor souls waiting for NHS operations who are unable to move and all his supporter's exist in glorious ignorance of the truth surviving on a diet of chlorinated chicken from the US, vegetables grown in the starving peoples poo fields of India and stinking contaminated pork meat from Kenya!
I thought this was a horrible nightmare, but then I realised I had woken up this morning to Radio 4 interview with a "Borisland" government minister who was talking about how they are hoping to do marvelous trade deal with Mexico on Welsh lamb and British beef in return for importing Taco bread and Tortilla’s!
So although you have some concerns about the competence of your Oz political elite let me assure you that those in the UK are certainly just as unfit for office,quite possibly even more so!
Over the last few years, Central Banks have been collectively selling gold to keep the price down and make the fiat money us dollar desirable. These gold normally dont get moved but rather ledgers are updated to reflect the sale. The "scam" or suspicion is that central banks are selling more gold than they actually have just to keep the price of gold down . Now, with more investors wisening up and begins to demand their physical gold, central banks will have to print more money to start aggressive purchasing of gold to pay their debtors. This phenomenon and other factors will drive massive inflation. That will be the beginning to the end of fiat currency and also create a surge in the price of gold(just like the digital gold - bitcoin). So, if you are invested in Centamin, you are at the right place as long as you are in for the long haul. My advice is to invest in real money, Gold. If you can, buy physical ones and hold. You can buy companies such centamin. Invest in physical assets such as house(invest in paying it off) , farms, gold and silver and a small portion in descent cryptos such as bitcoin. There will be the breakdown of fiat currency and you would wish you had gold. Gold will reach possibly $20000 or more within the next decade. Thanks. Dyor.
According to analysts' consensus price target of GBX 153.29, Centamin has a forecasted upside of 39.7% from its current price of GBX 109.70.
7 Wall Street research analysts have issued "buy," "hold," and "sell" ratings for Centamin in the last twelve months. There are currently 1 sell rating, 1 hold rating and 5 buy ratings for the stock. The consensus among Wall Street research analysts is that investors should "buy" Centamin stock
7 equities research analysts have issued 12 month price targets for Centamin's stock. Their forecasts range from GBX 82 to GBX 240. On average, they expect Centamin's stock price to reach GBX 153.29 in the next year. This suggests a possible upside of 39.7% from the stock's current price.
Centamin pays an annual dividend of GBX 0.12 per share and currently has a dividend yield of 5.87%. CEY has a dividend yield higher than 75% of all dividend-paying stocks, making it a leading dividend payer. The dividend payout ratio of Centamin is 1.27%. This payout ratio is at a healthy, sustainable level, below 75%
Money is cheap, and tax payers money is the cheapest (the Other Peoples Money syndrome)? The White House sent Congress a $6 trillion budget plan that would ramp up spending on infrastructure, education and combating climate change, arguing it makes good fiscal sense (?) to invest now, when the cost of borrowing is cheap (but what happens when interst rates go up?), and reduce deficits later.
Biden's plan for fiscal year 2022 calls for $6.01 trillion in spending and $4.17 trillion in revenues, a 36.6% increase from 2019 outlays, before the coronavirus pandemic bumped up spending. It projects a $1.84 trillion deficit, a sharp decrease from the past two years because of the COVID-19 pandemic, but up from 2019's $984 billion.
In Oz, we have a government so busy congratulating itself on their management of the covid chrisis and aggrivating China that they dont realise the dependency on our magnificent recovery, on China, in the form of International Students propping up our bloated Universites, and Iron Ore prices the like we have never seen before.
The red earth is our biggest export is currently bringing in $136 billion a year into our economy, according to the Treasury.
It accounts for about 20 per cent of all of our exports, and the iron ore we ship from the Port Hedland and Dampier ports in the Pilbara is worth about 5 per cent of our entire GDP. China – which buys 60 per cent of our iron ore – is buying it up like never before to create steel for its massive infrastructure projects in a bid to recover from the pandemic. It wont continue,as the Chinese Govt has plainly signalled...and then what happens?
I would rather invest in gold than the ideas and thoughts bubbles of governments and their fiat currencies,
Enjoy your weekend! and a great time to buy.
best
the gnome
Looking at the insanity of politicians and the fools managing the monetary policies in the West, I think gold is going way over $2K and won't look back for quite some time.
Next week from Tuesday after the BH will be a better week I am sure.
Mr Biden has announced a spending surge with Usd6 Trillion to come will help us with sustained higher precious metals hedging. Fingers crossed for next week.
Well done for hanging in there. Over the last two days 35m shares changed owner. Not yours or mine or most on this blog.
Investing in gold miners is the very definition of climbing a wall of worry. If you have a fair entry price and no leverage and lots of patience it can be very rewarding. But on the way you are put to the test to say the least. Hold on better days are coming.