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Of course mate. We are still friends (even if you are wrong about this) ;-)
Ha Ha, Don a drop of sarcasm is like water off a ducks back, we must agree to disagree on some topics :-)
MrBond46
You are so very right. There are other places to voice my concerns over West Africa and I can assure you I am making my voice heard on that stage.
On the subject of not understanding why one would talk about West Africa on this BB - that is more than a little wrong. You can speculate whether gold goes up or down on this BB. You can speculate about the open pit at Sukari. You can speculate about Capital clearing the overburden, when we might get concessions awarded around Egypt even what you ate for breakfast, lunch and dinner - but oh my gosh - stop making noise about West Africa?
Maybe it's past your nap time...
Can't disagree with your opinion on this, after the most recent drop in share price due to the WA strategy announcements is almost of no consequence when compared to the previous two drops as a result of the problems at Sukari.
This seems to show which issue is of paramount importance at the present to share holders.
I really do not se why there is so much noise is being made over this subject, B/F,
At the end of the day , nothing much that is said here on this subject ,makes the slightest difference to management strategy, Everyone has their own opinions and that is all they are.
What fun ,Razor's!
I confess to c&p’ing the odd post into google translate which I just did with this one..
It all became quite comical when the female voice with a trans-Atlantic accent read out...
“I wouldn't touch that bunch of carpetbagger's with a barge pole!”
Nice choice of words Mrtibbles.
Cheers
Hi Cowichan,
I greatly appreciate and respect your input and opinion's, you are well informed and know your subject, I also appreciate your opinions and enthusiasm on what could be done and the possibilities in West Africa.
In the past I held Barrick, but can't say that I was impressed particularly with the share holder returns or the communication which was patonising ,even rude to say the least, however the CEO Bristow is an arrogant and awful character who pays lips service to environmental issues, slaughters wildlife for his own pleasure and over bloated ego, also Barrick does not treat its workers well and seems quite prepared to rub along with some pretty corrupt governments for commercial gain.
So not that Barrick would care a jot I felt it would be hypocritical to hold their shares, as to Slimy Seb's Endeavour ,I wouldn't touch that bunch of carpetbagger's with a barge pole!
So although I have my issues with the way Centmin has run they pale into insignificance when compared to my feelings on Slimy Seb and lion slaughterer Bristow!
Personally if Martin Horgan wants to sell Batie West and make either of those two two buggers squeak over the price and then uses the money wisely elsewhere in Centamin I have no objection.
I appreciate your enthusiasm over West Africa and agree you should have received answers to your justified questions on the pertinent points, but unfortunately after being invested in Centamin for over a decade and enduring so many set backs , broken promises and disappointments my enthusiasm for what might be has disappeared, but at least we seem to have a CEO who may actually get what we have now Sukari running properly!
For Those that may have missed it-
May 27th 2021 Peel Hunt Note
West Africa growth from Doropo
Centamin has released the review of its West Africa gold project portfolio, with the announcement that its Doropo project in Coted'Ivoire will be progressing to PFS stage. Management seems fairly high conviction on Doropo being in production by late 2024 at an impressive capital intensity. At 150-200k oz pa,
Doropo should also provide a substantial production uplift to CEY after Sukari operations have stabilised. Diversification and growth are now firmly part of the CEY strategy.
Doropo project could be in production by late 2024
Centamin (CEY) completed the West Africa portfolio review, from which the main conclusion is that the Doropo project is likely to be CEY’s second mine.
The Doropo PEA showed potential to build an open pit mine for US$275m in capex with the aim of producing just over 150k oz pa over a 13 year life of mine
(LOM). Doropo’s average AISC is estimated at US$904/oz with cash costs estimated just below US$800/oz. Doropo could also produce over 200k oz in the first five years of production for an early payback period. Management has stated that the PFS will be technically heavy so time to DFS could be short, while costs included (capex and opex) could well come in lower than stated today. CEY has allocated US$14m in 2021 for 70km of drilling and to move the project to PFS stage by mid-2022.
Batie West looking for strategic options
Meanwhile, the board has decided to explore third-party development optionsfor its Batie West project in Burkina Faso. The Batie West PEA showed potential for a US$265m capex mine with a LOM of just 8.5 years of 140k oz at an AISC of ~US$1000/oz. However, with a higher opex and capital intensity compared to Doropo, the CEY board has decided that this mine does not fit its investment criteria, and so will categorise the project as non-core.
Production uplift expected by 2024/2025
The ABC project in Cote d'Ivoire has also been allocated US$3m in exploration spend for 2021 to get permits by mid-2022, but was the project with the shortest update today. It sounded as if management would like Doropo in production by late 2024, in our view, with any potential construction capex for Doropo being timed to come at the tail end of the current Sukari pit stripping. Meanwhile, the reclassification of Batie West as non-core could potentially bring in funds to CEY should they sell off the project
MARTIN HORGAN, CEO commented: "Building a strong active growth pipeline is central to our strategy, while maintaining our capital allocation discipline. Today's announcement of a positive preliminary economic study at Doropo and the exploration potential at the earlier stage ABC, demonstrate the quality and potential of our portfolio.
The Batie West Project has potential to deliver a profitable mine, but not one that would currently meet our strict investment criteria. We are now initiating a review of development options for this asset.
The Doropo Project is very exciting and is our priority growth target outside of Egypt, showing excellent potential to become Centamin's second mine. Our highly experienced team has proven expertise at delivering successful gold projects in West Africa and will now commence the PFS, the results of which we look forward to announcing in mid-2022."
https://www.centamin.com/assets/doropo-project/
In view of our debate on what may be ways forward in West Africa and our frustrations about the erratic share price I though this post from 2017 from Dasut warranted a reread.
As we are aware since 2017 Egypt's new mining code of 2020 has hopefully removed many of the obstacles that deterred new commercial mines development, although that acknowledged unfortunately the legal system doesn't as yet seem even slightly more speedy with regard to Centamins outstanding issues or Law 32, which remains under scrutiny by the SCC, assuming they are still around that is!
Original post Dasut-
Centamin/Pharaoh Gold/Sukari I have mentioned various names because let us not forget the parent company is Centamin and currently their only production comes from their Egyptian flagship mine.
So currently political and commercial risk are based on Egypt which has unfortunately gone through and continues to do through many "basket case" scenarios.
Investors in Centamin are risk takers so the share price will be volatile BUT at the same time it is a profitable business model, with conservative management, with no overly ambitious predictions or advertising gimmicks.
It is a company that will be ham strung by what Egyptian politics/legislation dictate, coupled with fluctuations in the gold price.
I really don't see the frustrations that many on this board are suffering changing until the West African opportunities turn into producing mines and political and commercial risks are spread.
As an investor I would hope this will happen sooner rather than later
BUT I don't think fast tracking is always the best route especially in a mining business to take, especially developing virgin sites, so as I have said previously making sure double checking detailed strategically put together mine plans are essential and are the difference between bleeding money and making good profits.
So as I have seen under other postings patience is of paramount importance so I am keeping the faith.
Possibly Dasut may want give us an update on his thoughts of 2017?
Yes.
One of the things that happens in gold processing (like many other industries) is that with time, there are new breakthroughs, which are better and cheaper. Its happened for the last 100 plus years. Some call these disruptive technologies.
There is a tremdous amount of active metallurgical research being done on refractive gold ores, like those at Batie. Martin no doubt will be aware, and will have disensed appropraite samples of the Batie Ore far and wide, to the more capable researchers. Waiting for the results and for technology to provide a solution to the 4 m ozs probems is not a bad strategy.
See below for one insight
"TREATMENT OF REFRACTORY GOLD ORES – CASE STUDIES COMPARING
CYANIDE AND THIOSULFATE LEACHING TO RECOVER GOLD
By
Paul Breuer, Robbie McDonald and Hongguang Zhang
CSIRO Minerals Down Under Flagship, Australia
The majority of the world’s gold reserves are hosted in copper-gold ore deposits and/or are
contained in refractory ores. Hydrometallurgical processing options for these materials are
becoming increasingly attractive over pyrometallurgical processing due to their lower environmental
impact and flexibility.
Ultrafine grinding and pressure oxidation (POX are two common methods often employed in the
treatment of refractory gold ores prior to leaching. However, these pre-treatment processes do not
always result in high gold recoveries upon cyanidation (and can be uneconomical due to high
energy and/or reagent consumption. Presented in this paper are case studies for several goldbearing refractory sulfide concentrates and ores, where these pre-treatment methods have been
evaluated together with both cyanidation and thiosulfate leaching for gold recovery. The POX
conditions with and without the addition of sodium chloride are shown to have a significant impact
on gold recovery from the POX residues in most cases. Gold recoveries for most samples and pretreatment options when leached with ammonium thiosulfate and copper catalyst are generally
equivalent to, or better than, those achieved with cyanide leaching.
BECAUSE MARTIN CANNOT REACT AT THE WHIMS OF THE LIBERUMS OF THIS WORLD, DOES NOT MEAN ALL IS LOST
IT REQUIRES MORE STRATEGY AND THOUGHT PROCESS THAN THE "CUtE IN SUITS, KUTCHING!, FEE CHARGING, RENT SEEKING BRIGADE" maybe capable.
Just a thought
best
the gnome
Exactly gnome. To be honest I like Martin approach. Very professional indeed. He seems a decent bloke who can be trusted.
Like I keep saying the gold price will do the talking, and think it's only just getting going. However with projects like Doropo & potentially new assets in Egypt ( hopefully bang next to Sukari ) things for CEY could certainly get interesting. It's most definitely looking positive...just waiting for that Egyptian licence news next. Fingers crossed its good, can't see why not due to the fact they already have a successful working relationship. Obviously CEY needs better terms & that's why it's taking longer to iron a deal out. Time will tell
Dusterman,
The other look in here, is that Martin is a conservative man (unlike his pre-decessors), and I think his figures are conservative
best
the gnome
MrBond
"What cey s strategy is no debt"...I THINK THERE IS TAD MORE TO IT. THEY HAVE A STRATEGY OF DELIVERING SUSTAINABLE DIVIDENDS TO REWARD SHAREHOLDERS, WHICH MAKES THEM UNIQUE IN GOLD MINER COUNTRY. MOST GOLD MINERS SAY .."BELIEVE IN ME, WE KNOW HOW TO ALLOCATE CAPITAL ON YOUR BEHALF, AND HAVE A BUNCH OF WONDERFUL ACQUISITIONS AND MERGERS TO MAKE", AND THEN TRASH SHAREHOLDER WEATLH, AND THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS SEEM TO FALL FOR THIS EVERYTIME?
"B/F has complicated geology". REALLY? NO MORE THAN MOST, NOTHING HERE TO DISCUSS
Expensive to produce ,and get rid of it. BATIE APPEARS TO BE EXPENSIVE FOR REASONS DISCUSSED, YOU WANT TO FLIP 4+ M OZS, ..GOOD LUCK TO YOU. NOT IN MY WATCH, OR IF YOU DO WANT TO FLIP IT FOR A SONG, FLIP IT TO ME...SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.
Perhaps less stirring in the Martini's?
the gnome
For me the Doropo news is fantastic. Another 200,000 ounces to add annually without the huge royalty payments. This project alone could nearly double CEY profits...also if they don't decide to proceed with it then they could sell it for a nice tidy sum. Either way CEY earns $$.
highlights
· The Doropo Project shows strong development potential with the completion of a positive preliminary economic assessment ("PEA"):
· US$234 million post-tax net present value ("NPV5%") with a 21% internal rate of return ("IRR") at US$1,450/oz gold price
· US$487 million NPV5% with a 33% IRR at consensus gold price per ounce of US$1,829/oz ("consensus")
· Total development capital expenditure ("CAPEX") of US$275 million, including a 15% contingency
· 13 year life of mine ("LOM") based on the updated mineral resource estimate of 0.16 million ounces (Measured and Indicated) and 5.21 million ounces (Inferred) of gold, with potential to further increase gold resources across the permits
· Average annual gold production of 207,800 ounces for the first five years, averaging 150,956 ounces over the LOM, for a total of 2.0 million ounces produced at an average AISC of US$904/oz
European shares were lower during premarket trading on Monday ahead of Germany's preliminary consumer price index report for May. The London Stock Exchange was closed for a bank holiday.
Investors continued to monitor economic data and the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic as European Central Bank officials expect it will take more time to bounce back to pre-crisis levels.
The DAX was down 0.32% in Frankfurt at 7:30 am CET, while the CAC 40 fell 0.23%. The euro rose 0.04% against the dollar at 7:40 am CET, buying 1.21990.
Breaking the News / JC
The state of Victoria again in Lockdown, only 7 days this time (!, totalling 161 days so far), but then thats a minimum. And now we have the federal govt arguing withthe states about responsibiltiies for the state govts lock ups and lock downs, and the economic impact. Pass the buck and kick the can down the road brigade in full motion here!
The effect on businesses are appalling...
"The clash came as the Victorian government rolled out a $250.7 million support package to help small and medium-sized businesses through the snap closure amid estimates that the lockdown will cost the state between $700 million and $1 billion.
“Victorian workers need support and that is where we needed Canberra (read ALL AUSTRALIAN TAX PAYERS SHOULD PAY FOR THE INCOMPETENCY OF THE STATE GOVERNMENT?) to come to the table and I am very sorry to say that they have refused to do that,” Mr Merlino said...
Then the smoking gun was tabled in a more articulate form in the public press...gain in function experimentation, one of the lesser known reserach into the productivity and effeciency of viruses and transmission. For those interested
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/anthony-fauci-backed-virus-experiments-despite-pandemic-risk/news-story
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(18)30006-9/fulltext
I can well imagine the conflict between the US and China growing, not abating, and the effects on the global (not to mention Australian) economy, liquidity, trade flows, procurement chains being negative.
Look forward to a productive week on the markets. Demonstrated and Sustainable yields >5% are very rare.
best
the gnome
Thanks Cowachin.
The discovery rate of commercial mines is also heavily weighted to West Africa. The Birrimian greenstone belts are the home of v large profitable mines (as you point out), and I would contend the buld of the ines have been discovered by United Nations Geochem Surveys (poor quality) and drilling under Artisinal Miners diggings.
The development of the weathering profile in West Africa is different to other similar lateritic profiles, which means that understanding the regolith is a pre-requisite for efficient an effective science based exploration.
In fact the scientific based exploration in West Africa is only in its infancy. Public data sets/Open file reports and databases the like of which we take for granted in Australia, and Canada do not exist. Yes some have aeromagnetic covergae now, but the analysis of this is rudimentary.
The results from the 2 projects in Cote IVoire are positive and encouraging, and the smart money is to see whether they can be made more positive by expanding the resource base, or building a better appreciation of the upside by some smart exploration.
Great position to be in.
In Burkina, I am perplexed by them not releasing an updated resource, and this leads me to thinking as opined previously, that the problem is not scale, but the geomet and/or energy/minig/sgrip ratio of the known 3 m ozs. The basics must be held in the energy cost, whichif reliant on external govt supply is v expensive, and if reliant on imprting diesel, is also expensive. But there are other forms of energy, and in the sub-sahara, this would equate to solar! Of interest then is Centamins work on solar powering in Egypt, and in Australia. IN Australia the renewable ming has started ..
"Gold Fields .....In June 2019, the company announced plans for Agnew become one of Australia’s first mining operations to be predominantly powered by renewable and low-carbon energy, signing an agreement with energy producer EDL for the creation of a “world-leading” energy microgrid, combining wind, solar, gas, and battery storage. The agreement constituted an A$112m (approximately $80.2m) investment, with EDL owning and operating the microgrid. The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) provided A$13.5m in funding as part of its Advancing Renewables Program.
The 56MW Agnew Hybrid Renewable Project was completed in May this year, with four key components controlled by an advanced microgrid system: five 110m wind turbines with a rotor diameter of 140m delivering 18MW, a 10,710-panel solar farm generating 4MW, a 13MW/4MWh battery system, and an off-grid 21MW gas/diesel engine power plant. The culmination of all those parts is Australia’s largest hybrid renewable microgrid...
best
the gnome
So it is a great area to work in. Having opreated in West Africa for more than 2 decades, none of our operations have ever been held up or nationalised despite their being coup's in Burkina Faso,
A quote from Kitco report:
"Eight out of the top ten lowest cost mines in the region located in West Africa."
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-05-18/Top-10-lowest-cost-gold-mines-in-Africa-in-2020-report.html
2020 All In Sustaining Costs
B2Gold's Fekola Mali $599/oz
Endeavour Natougou-Boungou mine in Burkina Faso $609/oz
Perseus' SGP mine in Ivory Coast $692/oz
Newmont's Akyem mine in Ghana $757/oz
Barrick Kibali mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo $778/oz
Newmont's Akyem mine in Ghana $757/oz
Barrick Tongon mine in Ivory Coast $791/oz
Endeavour Ity mine in Ivory Coast $808/oz
AngloGoldAshanti Iduapriem mine in Ghana $809/oz
Resolute Mako mine in Senegal $812/oz
Burkina Faso isn't a country we should or can afford to abandon going forward.
Also, deferring to Centamin's 'large institutional investors' to provide sound advice/direction for the company is ridiculous. VanEck, BlackRock, et al — ETF's have altered the world of investing and shareholder activism in ways incalculably detrimental.
I am afraid you all miss the point.
What cey s strategy is no debt.
B/F has complicated geology. Expensive to produce ,and get rid of it.
But that is only my opinion.
The intuitional investors will voice theirs ,privately to Centamin.
If. END want it sell.
Surely one of centamins biggest risk factors has been it being a single asset miner. I find it odd to suggest we sell on an asset that we've spent years proving so we can remain a single asset company. From the update the new mine will add near 50% to our production. I think we'd be mad to sell it on.
Tibbs - you make a valid point regarding a third party taking the lead (especially since there is country security risk to consider ) but if Horgan wasn't familiar enough with West Africa - especially considering he's spent a decade in Senegal developing the Mako mine - then why was he chosen? He certainly wasn't picked for his experience in Egypt!
And if Horgan can't manage more than one mine at a time how in the world does Endeavour manage half a dozen? Or Barrick? Or the growing list of other mid tier miners?
Our problem for realizing shareholder value for over a decade has been SINGLE asset risk. The board acknowledged and continues to acknowledge this. Why we give Mr Horgan a free pass to kick the can down the road another twelve months after studying the data for over a year already is beyond me.
Are we too tired to discuss West Africa? Do we wish it would just disappear? Have we forgotten the lengths Endeavour was willing to go to snap up Centamin's assets?
It's not easy finding a host of deposits all bunched together on this planet. Konkera/Batie West is a treasure trove despite what our current management has chosen to admit. If Endeavour gets it you can bet they will sing the area's praises so loudly and often we'll be sick of hearing that too...
Bought shares in Centamin in March 2021
The purchase amounts range from 15k to 150k
Worth remembering when some feel the need to post doom and gloom unnecessarily on settling the horses.
Hi Cowichan,
I understand your frustrations, but perhaps its better for Martin Horgan and his team concentrate on sorting out sort out Sukari and the other outstanding Egyptian issues and delegate other West African operations to contractors familiar with the area as Dasut has suggested in the past.
At the present my feelings are what is spent in West Africa no matter how good its potential is dead money, it hasn't produced a bean as yet ,so sell it on, get shot of it or contract it out
But whatever that decision Sukari is in a mess and to have the new CEO taking time off to try and get things up and running in West Africa makes no commercial sense at this time.
When Sukari is up and running to potential and the other legal issues are settled then look may be a better time to look elsewhere .