Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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"gair value" indeed Adrian77, off you go now...GandT at the tavern for you
best
the gnome
Adrian777. It looks highly suspicious when you have just joined LSE and are talking the SP down, don`t you think???
At the present those that have sold out are trying to convince themselves that they have made the right decision, just like those of us that stay!
Whichever way one decided there is no point fighting on the board, but the therapy of debate is welcome for all with current positions or future positions on CEY, whether these are long, short or hold.
A stock very rarely moves in a straight line, some will want to be traders, some will want to be long term holders., both are valid, but they require a different mentality.
It is dangerous to use a long-term mentality for short-term trades and vice-versa.
Even if production is slightly less for a short period , it will still cover existing guidance.
However if production is better than guidance, then all the better!
When material new information comes to the fore, like yesterday the market will adjust accordingly. as the market always does.
I wish everyone a sincere good-luck whatever their decision on Centamin and whichever way they are looking to participate in this market!
With the risk of the single asset and waste stripping I see an mcap around 1.2bil being about right given balance sheet strength. With gold around $1900 I would say a share prixe of 100 - 105 seems gair value.
Gold at $2000 = 120p
Gold at 1800 = 80p
Reserves alone plus cash is 98p. Resources would add another 21p = 119p is fair value.
Following on from yesterdays 82p target deramping, Peel Hunt has today issued a price target of £1.50 on this stock.
It is trading 32.5% below fair value according to simply wall street, and the consensus ratings are all higher than todays share price. It is also worth noting that Liberium's rating was based on $1800 gold, so they had not even taken the time to notice the uptick to $1900, and most analysts think we will break the all time high in gold price in the next 6 months.
Adrian77,
Congratulations on joining LSE today ! In your analysis on Centamin might I ask what you value the Gold in the ground we have at Sukari ?
Any thoughts on the bid we had at 125p ?
Supercharger,
I think analysis and logic is not part of the value offering from Liberum, to their customers.
They have not been around for long time, and probably have less time ahead, before they sink beneath the waves.
best
the gnome
Centamin has a high cost base partly thanks to previous management incompetence and laziness. Mining the best bits and no doing the hard yards of stripping.
However, a silver lining is that if gold goes up as it is currently doing its prospects brighten accordingly. We just need to see evidence of a root and branch reform of this company so that it ends up half way decent in the performance leagues.
It looks like the new guy understands this - whether he can force lazy local managers no doubt appointed because of the strength of their pollical connections not their competence to be fired or change their ways is open to doubt.
Depending on how you read the reserves figures there is 10-20 years worth of production left in Egypt alone. They just have to eke out every efficiency and capture value added in every way possible either through say solar power (as they are doing) or improving processing efficiencies (think Tharissa)
This is a punt but by no means a stupid one!
The strong Support line at 111 will broken today. Next stop 106, should hold.
Auson
There are funny things that happen when one erects Chinese walls?
I have met many a Financial firm that has "impervious" walls between their broking, advisory and trading departments
I am sure Liberum is above all of this,...nudge nudge, wink, wink !!!
the gnome
Supercharger,
Liberium won't actually be able to take a possition long or short if they are providing broker note coverage. Thats not to say they don't know an intersted party who wants to by cheap shares. I suspect they had the broker note ready to go and decided to release it on sight of the RNS which I find a little suspicious. Broker notes are just designed to generate trades / hence commissions for the brokers so sell = 82p and buy = 150p
Svetlana, how dare you expose your true identity in such company!
nudge, nudge, wink wink!!!
the gnome
I had taken a position sold 2 days ago. On further examination of the reports 2020 and q1 2021 this is extremely speculative.
Although 82 sounds a bit far, with a rising pound, single producing asset and huge royalty liabilities to the Egyptian government far value has been passed. Centamin is over valued in my opinion and is reliant on a gold rally to around 2100$ to support the 1.4bn mcap.
FireAnt wrote: 'One thing for sure - I look for some comfort in the post of Mr Tibbles, who seems to understand a great deal about the company!'
I agree 100%. Having a few off topic posts in quiet periods is a price worth paying to have someone on board to steady the ship in stormy seas. He, and others, have a little dig at some posters for their investment strategy or even their occupation/profession, from time to time, but it is all light-hearted fun and should be treated as such.
Let's have a better Centamin day today.
Svetlana the communist economist (nudge nudge, wink wink).
Equities in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Friday ahead of the release of the latest report on consumer confidence and business climate in the Eurozone. Earlier, the European Central Bank's (ECB) Isabel Schnabel stated that that institution is taking measures to ensure the sustainability of the economy, still affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The DAX advanced by 0.46% at 7:27 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 rose by 0.34%, and the CAC 40 increased by 0.30%.
The euro lost 0.11% to the dollar to sell for $1.21819 at 7:35 am CET. The pound sterling dropped by 0.13% against the greenback to change hands for $1.41897 at the same moment.
Breaking the News / JR
Happy Friday y’al...
I note you also noted that the new discoveries in West Africa could also be sold off as non core to the benefit of shareholders.
Either way whether actually mined or sold off it adds value not less than we had Wednesday before we were Liberated!
They can see Gold continuing to climb up towards 2100oz, after recently coming back from2000oz, and if it continues its upward path will see significant gains for the Gold miners.
I note Liberum quote with we start our coverage with a sell rating as you say Gold Gnome why would they start with a sell? erh they see this as a great share to buy, but want to lessen their own risks by trying to force the price down first. Lets see and hope we rebound tomorrow we should do as the new opportunities are being looked into as a potential that is not saying that they could not be sold for the benefit of shareholders, the findings so far so good will increase shareholder value from where we were yesterday in any case which is why Liberum jumped in quick. We now need a counter opinion from other major analysts broadcast who do invest in this income share for some growth as well, but as others have already said Endeavour must be looking again in their purse to see what they can offer where they already have interests in the area.
Inspector Morse and his side kick Tony
I am pretty sure we will recover back to where we were very soon. Pension Managers will always look towards alternative stocks for a balance. They also look for Income, as well as Growth. At the moment the precious metals miners will give that. many other Comps at the moment cannot. Some coming out of lockdown will not for two to three years. The precious metals miners if on the FTSE will produce, but will increase in value to overseas investors to buy if GBP falls. Mr Cummings is doing his best for us bless him. I have a large portfolio and invest in most FTSE precious metals miners and have done for the past 10 years. I do not fear foreign govts. as those that become to greedy do not last long politically. The stable ones always negotiate a good deal and that for precious metals miners is about 50% of income. The fact the South American miners are listed on the ftse with head offices in London will make it politically difficult for foreign govts. to act without the Uk Govt becoming politically involved. The Miners also have political risk insurance to protect them and represent in the rare occasions when this happens. I am not afraid of investing in HOC and FRES (where their divis are most welcome when most do not pay them) and for Centamin bear in mind the UK is Egypts largest foreign investor -which helps. I see the announcement from the CEY B.O.D. actually as a way of getting more business from Egypt. i.e. They will not want Centamin losing its focus away from Egypt and to encourage them with competition in mind we might find new Egyptian opportunities coming our way now. Could be a clever move. Just like Tottenham announcing they want Poch back when really it is to stop the likes of Kane, Alli and Son leaving. If you catch my drift. Your call obviously but today most of my other shares did very well. So if one day CEY falls for me it is not the end of the day. Just the beginning of a new cycle!
Mr T
Liberum make money when the share price moves down "KKKucccchhhing" (constructed) and then basel 3 comes along, POG up, SP moves up
and ...."KKKucccchhhing",..... Libernum makes another cut, and down to the tavern for a GandT
I think they have good business model (worked for decades), its the Lemmings who lose.
Worth noting!?
- my interp, lots of new prey into the market, pandemic volumes triple!, even better the new prey are new to market, manipulate, they run their own trading platform offering insto services to the new prey, look good in suits, clip the ticket on the way up and the way down...more ups and downs (engineered or not) the more $$$
...
"Liberum hires two trading heavyweights as electronic volumes triple in pandemic
The bank hired Charles Taylor, one of the founding partners of Redburn, and Duncan Higgins, a veteran from electronic trading firm Virtu Financial
Liberum has seen volumes on its T-REX trading platform triple to $8.5bn last year Getty Images
Liberum has hired two senior trading professionals as the independent investment bank looks to expand its burgeoning electronic trading platform.
The bank has taken on Charles Taylor, one of the founding partners of equity research and execution firm Redburn, and Duncan Higgins, who has held senior roles at electronic trading firm Virtu Financial, as it looks to take advantage of a surge in trading volumes during the Covid-19 pandemic. The pair will join as senior advisers.
Liberum has seen volumes on its T-REX trading platform, set up in 2018 alongside London Stock Exchange-owned trading facility Turquoise, triple from $3.1bn in 2019 to $8.5bn last year, the bank told Financial News.
Taylor spent 15 years at Redburn as a partner until his departure in May last year. He is currently a partner at consultants Aldbury International. Higgins was previously head of electronic products at financial technology firm ITG, which was acquired by Virtu in 2019. He left the firm in October 2019 and has worked as an independent consultant since.
READ Barclays ECM exec Febrer-Bowen lands new role weeks after retirement
The T-REX platform offers retail investors access to institutional trading technology and enables both retail and institutional investors to trade alongside one another.
“Since the start of Covid-19 we have seen a drop in the risk appetite of market makers, with some deregistering from their obligation to make markets in certain equities,”
Its the cynic in me...
best
the gnome
I would love to buy Centamin shares at the price forecast by the idiot from Liberium - I will happily pay you 90p per share - a few pennies above your price forecast - put your money where your mouth is.
I wonder if the nice photos of the team on the Liberum website have been photo shopped and they are really chimpanzees.
It's a joke, like the price target they pulled out of a Christmas cracker!
Hi Marmot,
Thank you for reminding everyone just how ridiculous is the Liberum valuation, is this bloke really an analyst or an out of work comedian from the Edinburgh festival, gaps or no gaps (and why these should be filled anyway to conform to some stupid MM jiggery pokery is beyond me, the price is the price ,if you want the share pay it!) as you rightly point out Cey was valued at this before it was even producing anything, let alone gold!
If ever there was an example of just how manipulated and crooked ,not to mention devoid of common sense the markets are then this rating is it!
I did mention a while back that iI had heard that Martin Horgan intended to review the West African assets and then decide which were worth keeping and which to offload, but that never ending drilling for no return or sitting on unexploited assets was no longer an option as he would rather invest the funds in other projects in operationally known and more stable jurisdictions, he seems to be doing just that.
Hopefully when the statement is issued on the Egyptian concessions then things will be clearer and an 82p rating will be confirmed as a complete joke!
As already mentioned Basel 3 next month, Liberum seem to be oblivious to the way that will affect future bullion prices!
Rebess, Liberum and what they know about anything I know not as what a load of old rubbish must have had a bad dream and woke up in a bad mood because doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
I don't take any notice from the likes of such so called analysts because unless they have first hand experience it is only conjecture.