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Auson and Adrian work together but we don’t know,who they work for.What a coincidence,he is registering today to give us very useful advice????
Market detached from reality where Liberum note concerned.
Peel Hunt issued their own just yesterday with 150p target. All other brokers consider CEY a buy, with targets 120p upwards. Liberum the anomaly.
Conditions perfect for increase in price of gold. CEY has generated an enormous amount of cash past 12 mos. and will likely continue to do so.
Market missed the mark, in my view.
There have been several posts and statements as to what is fair value.
I am not saying any are wrong but without substantiation / explanation they are meaningless hot air.
So Adrian77 I can understand that "fair value" will vary depending on gold price so please kindly expain how you have calculated your figures of 120p and 82p.
Please don't take this post the wrong way, I am genuinely interested as to how the sps are calculated.
Adrian registered today to come and tell you cey is over valued? Wonder who he works for.
Adrian77,
I didnt ask about a risked valuation as risk is subjective no matter how we try to quatify it. I asked what is the value of the Gold in the ground at Sukari ?
Yield/div is 10 percent at these prices so not too shabby, whoever listened to anal cysts anyways future earnings and growth exploration.
Infrastructure alone is worth over 1bn. Crazy drop this...could bounce now off the 50 day moving average. Scare mongrels out in force.....good time to buy
I have translated adrian's valuation:
Quote ( "With the risk of the single asset and waste stripping I see an mcap around 1.2bil being about right given balance sheet strength. With gold around $1900 I would say a share prixe of 100 - 105 seems gair value.")
Translation: "With the focus of single monetary asset and high central bank ownership! together with exploration and development potential of the West Africa project, I see £1.2bn being too low for the mcap. With gold likely to exceed $1900 I would say a share price of £1.50 would be fair value."
Say hello to Jamie at the Tavern...
I hope this price dip stays til after 15th June. Will get more shares with dividend
Why have my Posts been deleted.....
And.....as stated 111 has gone. 106 next up
Apologies gnome, I am working from a mobile handset fat fingers. For you I will ensure I am more careful and check my spelling!
Essentially this share is 5- 10 % over valued at present there's no need to take offence to that. 2 x dividends will make it up if you can hold for more than a few weeks
The royalty payments make this difficult to see how it gets anywhere near 150p. The more they make the more that goes to the government no wonder cash flow is basically zero. If gold falls then this might be Lomnin all over again........
I think there is a bit of a short attack going on. I suspect had the African assets rns yesterday shown stronger figures then the 82p sell note wouldn't have seen the light of day. All planned by Liberium imo and executed on seeing some disappointing numbers yesterday.
Sp down from 1.22 to 110 so you could say well executed but dodgy.
Thats my take, i sold at 115 to preserve profits, may be back in when the dust settles.
I smelt it a mile off so sold to secure profit yesterday,, will be back when the dust settles.
"gair value" indeed Adrian77, off you go now...GandT at the tavern for you
best
the gnome
Adrian777. It looks highly suspicious when you have just joined LSE and are talking the SP down, don`t you think???
At the present those that have sold out are trying to convince themselves that they have made the right decision, just like those of us that stay!
Whichever way one decided there is no point fighting on the board, but the therapy of debate is welcome for all with current positions or future positions on CEY, whether these are long, short or hold.
A stock very rarely moves in a straight line, some will want to be traders, some will want to be long term holders., both are valid, but they require a different mentality.
It is dangerous to use a long-term mentality for short-term trades and vice-versa.
Even if production is slightly less for a short period , it will still cover existing guidance.
However if production is better than guidance, then all the better!
When material new information comes to the fore, like yesterday the market will adjust accordingly. as the market always does.
I wish everyone a sincere good-luck whatever their decision on Centamin and whichever way they are looking to participate in this market!
With the risk of the single asset and waste stripping I see an mcap around 1.2bil being about right given balance sheet strength. With gold around $1900 I would say a share prixe of 100 - 105 seems gair value.
Gold at $2000 = 120p
Gold at 1800 = 80p
Reserves alone plus cash is 98p. Resources would add another 21p = 119p is fair value.
Following on from yesterdays 82p target deramping, Peel Hunt has today issued a price target of £1.50 on this stock.
It is trading 32.5% below fair value according to simply wall street, and the consensus ratings are all higher than todays share price. It is also worth noting that Liberium's rating was based on $1800 gold, so they had not even taken the time to notice the uptick to $1900, and most analysts think we will break the all time high in gold price in the next 6 months.
Adrian77,
Congratulations on joining LSE today ! In your analysis on Centamin might I ask what you value the Gold in the ground we have at Sukari ?
Any thoughts on the bid we had at 125p ?
Supercharger,
I think analysis and logic is not part of the value offering from Liberum, to their customers.
They have not been around for long time, and probably have less time ahead, before they sink beneath the waves.
best
the gnome
Centamin has a high cost base partly thanks to previous management incompetence and laziness. Mining the best bits and no doing the hard yards of stripping.
However, a silver lining is that if gold goes up as it is currently doing its prospects brighten accordingly. We just need to see evidence of a root and branch reform of this company so that it ends up half way decent in the performance leagues.
It looks like the new guy understands this - whether he can force lazy local managers no doubt appointed because of the strength of their pollical connections not their competence to be fired or change their ways is open to doubt.
Depending on how you read the reserves figures there is 10-20 years worth of production left in Egypt alone. They just have to eke out every efficiency and capture value added in every way possible either through say solar power (as they are doing) or improving processing efficiencies (think Tharissa)
This is a punt but by no means a stupid one!
The strong Support line at 111 will broken today. Next stop 106, should hold.
Auson
There are funny things that happen when one erects Chinese walls?
I have met many a Financial firm that has "impervious" walls between their broking, advisory and trading departments
I am sure Liberum is above all of this,...nudge nudge, wink, wink !!!
the gnome
Supercharger,
Liberium won't actually be able to take a possition long or short if they are providing broker note coverage. Thats not to say they don't know an intersted party who wants to by cheap shares. I suspect they had the broker note ready to go and decided to release it on sight of the RNS which I find a little suspicious. Broker notes are just designed to generate trades / hence commissions for the brokers so sell = 82p and buy = 150p