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By the way, they travelled to Buenos Aires early in May. Will be in BA again next month.
Thanks for this, Mr M.
.."The Argentine wolf of Wall Street hired by Burford to lobby on its behalf -as mentioned as a possibility by Cronista last week- is Gerardo "Gerry" Mato, a former banker who became Chairman of Global Banking at HSBC. He has more than 25 years of experience in global financial markets, based in the US, and before HSBC he worked for Merrill Lynch; he was also a member of the Atlantic Council, the US Chambers of Commerce and the Council of the Americas. He is now CEO of the consulting firm BluePearl Capital, where he is a partner of two other former Argentine bankers. All of them will be in Buenos Aires during the first days of June: they have a full agenda at all levels..."
Upsum : 'no hay plata' - there's no money - but Milei has indicated a 'willingness' to settle (the first President to do so) and that's what these folk may be counting on....and maybe with a so-far un-named ally of Milei, not in Govt , who might have negotiating authority.
GLA
Long piece in the Argentine media about Burford’s hiring of a negotiator for the YPF case.
https://www.infobae.com/economia/2024/05/22/juicio-por-ypf-burford-quiere-cobrar-los-usd-16000-millones-y-contrato-a-un-tiburon-de-wall-street-argentino-para-negociar-con-el-estado/
Absolutely spot on both of you, I'll continue to hope we are over £13 when news drops , An excellent quarter then Sysco followed by YPF agreement ? now that put an end to my lottery subscriptions
Huge progress but SP back to where we were 12 months ago and 21% down on 52 week peak.
its a share for traders as revenue is so lumpy. Don't forget Q2 last year
"We have produced the strongest set of six-month financial results in Burford's history, with net income attributable to shareholders of nearly $240 million and tangible book value per share growth of 12% over the past six months. Our core portfolio generated a lot of cash with realized gains tripling on our core portfolio realizations, and new business was very strong. Our new valuation methodology is sensitive to interest rate changes and thus higher rates during the first six months of 2023 were a headwind for the fair value of our core portfolio, especially during the second quarter, but these valuation movements are non-cash and unrealized and are expected to continue to fluctuate over time. Operating expenses reflect strong portfolio performance and certain idiosyncratic events."
YPF in next 12 months and Sysco hopefully moved substantially on but Q2 and H1 23 were not soft. SP may take a while to firm up despite it being long term great value.
Burford income comes in the last 6 months of the year, first 6 months are wipe outs , might get a random big case settle but generally they are low ball months.
any wind of a settlement discussion, this will sky rocket
As you say “ crazy value “ hopefully sometime in the next year petersen will come in ? I certain hope we are much higher than we are now when that happens !
Add now £10.93
How low will this go, crazy value
Just added ready for div and next 3-6 months lift.
£10.02
BBH I’ve twice had that happen and both time mes the private investor got screwed. I’m sure bogart and Molot would be up for it as it would make them very very rich as opposed to paper rich as they are now but our hope should be to hope the sp is high at the time we chose to sell and not have it forced on us !!!! Imo obviously but I truly hope I’m not on the end of a hat trick
BlueWiley,
I agree, Burford will likely go private and could well be good news for us
And Ashmore latest :
Argentina: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) have approved the eighth review of Argentina's USD 44bn loan agreement, paving the way for c. USD 800m in loans for the country. President Javier Milei said the nation is on the brink of lifting foreign exchange controls and emphasised the government's eagerness to do so swiftly.
It won’t be long before Burford is taken private ..
Interesting article in today's FT, behind paywall (google is your friend). BUR isn't mentioned, but the private capital firms may be potential competitors at some point.
'Johnson & Johnson settlement shows the new stakes in litigation finance'
Article reports on J and J's talc litigation and a $ 14 Bn settlement....and Johnson's unhappiness that the claimants were part-financed by Fortress Litigation Assets, an arm of Fortress Investment Group, now owned by Abu Dhabi's SWF Mubadala.
J and J complain that the financial investors frustrate -cough- 'good faith' attempts at settlement, by holding out for higher ie more profitable returns.
.."
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https://www.ft.com/content/abd5bf98-378f-4322-b930-68c9b410e783
According to Fortress’s website, it has cumulatively funded $6.8bn in litigation finance. Industry participants say virtually every major private capital firm is involved in funding lawsuits, though often quietly and through affiliates. Centerbridge and Apollo both funded lawsuits of victims of PG&E while also being financial creditors and shareholders of the California utility that paid victims billions over its role in devastating wildfires..."
GLA
Thank you Mr Marroc - good to see the wheels starting to turn. The settlement sentiment is going to happen soon I’ll be adding this morning.
Burford has hired former Argentine Wall Street bankers to lead the efforts to negotiate a settlement with the government, the local media reported late on Friday. This does not mean that Milei will open the door soon. Is just a first step towards an agreement. Argentina needs to name its negotiator.
The wheels are moving.
I don't wish to jinx it but it's looking better in the US 🤞
Well let’s hope nobody is prepared to accept below $14 across the pond ! I’m long obviously but ide prefer this was the bottom???
Adding trade position, starting to sidewind now. Will double down on any further drop.
Like the Berenberg Bank write up - £16.00 by end of the year i reakon.
Unfortunately not everyone’s trading styles are the same.
Some short, some take a position when it drops and make a few bucks in an early rise (which can be a lot if trading 10000’s share), some buy and hold.
The buy and hold is the most painful, for me this is along term strategy why I buy and hold in Sipp.
Hmmm... I still don't get it as personally I would prefer the fairly large investment I have in BUR to go up not down regardless if I could buy more at a cheaper price. I don't get your logic.
So I can add and hold to get maximum return, why do you think. I’m not trading any yet.
It’s a gift when this stock drops so much.
Berenberg Bank still have no qualms about issuing a buy rating on burford for £16 a share, and that's still before any YPF settlement amount gets factored into the share price, a genuine steal at this price . The shorters just love this share when burfords profits get pushed into another reporting period, they will push it down and then up again in the coming weeks and months, it wouldn't matter if burford posted a reasonable 1st quarter profit, the shorters are looking for anything that's not a spectacular earnings period result and then they just press the shorting sell button, the thing is they will nearly always have to buy back in again as burfords shares are heading for at least a doubling of our share price inside the next year or so, if you have a half a brain in your head then this drop shouldn't faze you at all other than a slight disappointment of a day or two, it always marches upwards after such a fall, and yes it's nearly a tradition now that our shares fall near or after reporting day LOL, I know I shouldn't laugh, but it's ironic that a fantastic earnings compounding leader in its field of litigation gets punished because to many investors don't truly understand burfords earnings periods and potential ,plus the shorters add to this unjustified drop, I'm actually taking this drop as a gift and opportunity to pick up more shares in the coming days and weeks,
I've every confidence in our share price at least doubling at some point, yes it's hard to be exact here, yes Javier Milei has his work cut out ok, though he's so far into his plans that even his opponents can see he's making ground on reducing inflation in Argentina and getting international respect for his country's fiscal policies, with the rewards from that being Better terms with the IMF and big businesses from around the world, if the argentine people can stomach this financial pain a bit longer then it could pay the whole country in the long run to toe the line somewhat here, if Milei succeeds here then so does burfords shareholders, and massively, if he doesn't succeed then our settlement award will take longer to collect ok, I'm very confident Milei definitely wants and needs to get rid of all these court awards and obstacles to his country returning to the international money markets, he must pay us first or in stages and in tandem to his country becoming very prosperous and financially wealthy again. he stands a very good chance here as the fiscal numbers are adding up in his favour here, let's hope his voters give him the space and time to carry out what he was elected to do, and that is to make Argentina great again. Burford is a fantastic in front head and shoulders leader in the litigation world, when the market wakes up to burfords true potential these shares will definitely sit around £26 to £40 a share, I've no doubts at all , it's a brilliant investment.
DYOR, GLA.
Why would your fingers be crossed to see this hit £10.00? I thought the idea of investing was to make money NOT loose it!!
Apologies, should read Q1 results