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Started: BlueWiley, 12 Jun 2024 13:58
Last post: RIDER75, 14 Jun 2024 13:47
To the basics of investments.... when a shares sp movrs higjer or lower, it is not rhe company or the management, that makes or loose to.or from you money. Its about the level shareholders buy or srll among each other.
When the sp goes dowmward that doesnt mean the company is lossing your - as investor's - money. Br.
They have lots of cases ongoing all the time. Q1 24 was a tough LFL with LY but Q2 should be smashed it’s the whole half LFL that will be the key short term SP. They keep deploying their money so long term they will pay back very well if their win rate is maintained. In short term if President Milei gets the powers he needs he can then deal with court losses and the payments should start to flow but that may take another 12 months. If next week good it may stop the SP drop, let’s hope so.
I agree it better had be Learning. Surely I am not the only one that expected the S.P. to soar when we won the YPF case? However this has gone into reverse ever since. YPF aside isn't Burford involved in other cases that might have a bearing on the S.P? What are they doing apart from losing investors money?
Afraid not 10.63 ouch, next weeks meeting better be good.
*£12.40
Started: LearningG, 14 Jun 2024 08:10
Last post: LearningG, 14 Jun 2024 08:10
Burford Capital Limited, the leading global finance and asset management firm focused on law, today announces the pound sterling conversion rate for its shareholder-approved final dividend for the year ended December 31, 2023 of 6.25 US cents per ordinary share to be paid on June 14, 2024 to shareholders of record as of May 24, 2024.
For shareholders electing to receive their dividend in pound sterling, the final dividend is 4.903876 pence per ordinary share, based on the exchange rate of £1 = US$1.274502 set on May 30, 2024.
Started: Syoun11, 7 Jun 2024 19:28
Last post: RIDER75, 7 Jun 2024 20:21
Stocl with relatively lower liqudity should experience positive pressure while becoming part of indexes. On the other hand, such stocks usually suffer even abruptly after falling out of indrxes.
Is there a possibility that the algorithms that are at play in the automated world of the stock market will cause a lower price or is consensus it will have a positive effect or as I expect not much effect
Started: BigBaggerHungry, 7 Jun 2024 06:41
Last post: BlueWiley, 7 Jun 2024 07:42
I’m confident Judge Preska will deliver YPF on a cold plate..
If we can get our hands on those YPF shares, or at least the power to do so. This will be our biggest bargaining tool.
Started: extrader, 2 Jun 2024 14:05
Last post: MrMarroc, 7 Jun 2024 00:15
You'll be happy to know that your interests were very well represented.
Good evening Mr Marroc.. how interesting was the guest list yesterday and could you shed some light on what Seb meant by “ Rest in June, because the next 3 months are hard.”
On Wednesday, Milei is scheduled to give a speech at a local economic forum. I will pay close attention to the attendee list.
Understood ExT … my post was a question to Mr Marroc
It was in his election manifesto and he's on record as saying that Argentina 'has to pay' (but not how much!).
As to whether he'd meet Burford reps, there've been opportunities to meet already (on Molot's BA visit or Milei's trips to the US), I can't imagine either side would want to be seen doing anything together until there's some prospect of both being able to 'deliver' on their side : Milei has to get past his political opposition; BUR will want to optimize from a commercial perspective (quantum/time/degree of certainty) ; both would want to make sure the IMF etc (eg maybe supportive governments / SWFs) were on board, for any side deals /quid pro quo's there may be.
Per https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/imf-staff-argentina-reach-agreement-latest-review-44-bln-program-2024-05-13/, the IMF Board is yet to endorse the latest staff level (positive) recommendations.
If any outsider knows what's going on, it'll likely be Seb...
;->
IMO
Started: time.will.tell, 3 Jun 2024 08:59
Last post: RIDER75, 5 Jun 2024 11:46
By the way index inclusion. Could anyone recommend a site, dealing with potential companies bound to become part of any stock exch index? Br.
1st July
Interesting- do you know when this may happen
Once a stock is added to the index, it is argued, demand will increase dramatically—and along with it the share price—as institutional investors rebalance their portfolios. And as long as that demand continues, so will the stock's price premium .
Started: johnnyrh, 27 May 2024 12:10
Last post: Brigra, 2 Jun 2024 08:35
"I don't see management wanting to pay a substantially higher dividend of say 3, 4 or 5%."
Any active fund managers put off by current dividends don't understand capital allocation, so would be unlikely to be making attractive investments for their clients elsewhere. Similarly with lumpy revenue, all things being equal smooth is nicer, but it shouldn't disqualify a business from evaluation and investment.
That said, a special dividend of 100%+, which isn't theoretically impossible would have them promptly reworking their spreadsheets!
And, we shouldnt be afraid of the rise of competition, as this potrential market is so enormous. On the other hand, with some other participant, esp if they are branches of bigger companies, some relevant referemce valuation may be there to make comparison for investors. That might affect positibely the proper valuation of BUR also.
BUR will never be priced with real high multiple opposed to its l growth. But due to its high ROIC ROE etc, and its rate of growth, and the fact that it wont pay higher dividends, its low valuation becomes more extreme, and its net accumulated wealth (value of its assets) will force the sp to somehow mirror that process. (Its valuation will mot be derived from it potential future income or cash flow, but the accumulated value in its books. As fsr as I see.
I wonder if part of the issue could lie in being unable to satisfy the investment criteria of most actively managed funds.
Whilst we trade on low valuation multiples and are growing at the same time. Most value managers will lean towards companies that pay a reasonable dividend. At the same time we also fail to satisfy the often strict criteria of most quality growth fund managers who typically seek companies with low debt and more consistent and predictable earnings growth than we can offer. The lumpy nature of our returns is undesirable for these managers and many of them will filter us out before even considering the wider picture.
That leaves us with trying to appeal to the more 'speculative' growth funds such as those managed by Baillie Gifford, whom are already an investor. This particular theme is less common however.
I'm not sure what will change to enable us to appeal more to either of camp as the nature of our model will always lend to being lumpy and I don't see management wanting to pay a substantially higher dividend of say 3, 4 or 5%.
I assume joining the Russell 2000 index should help as passive funds become forced buyers but wouldn't claim to have an idea to what extent nor does it address the long term issue of whether Bur can consistently beat the market rather than become part of the market.
I'd welcome any thoughts...
The sooner the better please BW
Started: BigBaggerHungry, 1 Jun 2024 11:40
Last post: extrader, 2 Jun 2024 02:55
The ADRs are priced in USD. Gain in 'real' money is about 3x
HTH
.
Abacus,
Fair point, but if invested in YPF on NYSE, you would have gained wel over over 400 percent in the same 2 year period, still not bad.
BBH, how much has the argentine peso devalued in that same time?
Fingers crossed Lady Preska may soon ensure we all invested in YPF..
Exactly 2 years ago YPF share price was 921.
Today it trades at 29055.
That’s an increase of over 30 times. How I wish I had invested in YPF.
Started: geek233, 31 May 2024 11:04
Last post: BigBaggerHungry, 31 May 2024 12:03
I want my money as well
The "I want my money " quote from a Burford lawyer is epic!
Post 1. On Thursday, YPF judgment creditors will file their last brief in support of their motion to compel Argentina to turnover YPF shares owned by the Republic. I don't expect a decision before mid July. Bainbridge Fund has also filed a turnover motion and will file its last brief late June.
Post 2. Heard in Judge Preska's courtroom this week:
“We’ve been waiting over a decade. Your Honor has been with this case for over a decade. Judge Griesa before him with Argentina had to deal with this [intransigence] for 20 years, God rest his soul. And your Honor, I don’t want to be here in ten years. I want to get that discovery now. I want to get it from them, I want to get it from Argentina, and I want to get my money.”
Clear as water.
Post 3. Judgment creditors suggest that Judge Preska should compel the Republic to negotiate and resolve the YPF case.
This litigation has seen four different presidents and none has paid the attention it deserves. It’s time for Argentina to stop kicking the can down the road a sit with judgment creditors and put and end to this litigation. President Milei has the unique opportunity to differentiate himself from his predecessors.
"The far better course is to take action now to force Argentina to the bargaining table so that the parties can negotiate an orderly and meaningful remedy for the rights that this Court has recognized. And to the extent there is concern about Plaintiffs actually obtaining and selling the YPF shares before the resolution of the underlying appeal, that issue can be addressed in the context of stay briefing when Argentina brings its promised appeal."
"For these reasons, Plaintiffs respectfully request that the Court order Argentina to: (i) transfer its YPF shares to a global custody account BNYM in New York; and (ii) instruct BNYM to transfer the shares to the U.S Marshal for the S.D.N.Y. for sale to the public"
Started: extrader, 28 May 2024 17:16
Last post: extrader, 28 May 2024 19:00
And another...
And more from Seb
14m
.."Between June 2014 and April 2016, Argentina and the creditors maintained a legal and public dispute that included the court mediator, Daniel Pollack.
- There were a total of 442 filings in Griesa's court during this period, related to liens, appeals, complaints, delays, contempt, injunctions, etc.
- In my opinion, Judge Preska is already close to losing patience with the Argentine Republic as Griesa did. Her last rulings are proof.
- Is there a mediator in sight?"
GLA
Newsflow from Seb :
(1) Tuesday, 12:00 pm: Hearing in Judge Preska's court to present arguments for and against forcing the country to present information on whether certain entities administered by the State are the Alter Ego of the Republic. Argentina.
- These companies include but are not limited to: YPF, Aerolíneas, BCRA, ARSAT, BNA, etc.
- This hearing is related to the case for the expropriation of YPF.
(2) Seb will be leading a zoom call on Weds, @6pm Arg time, 10pm UK time AIUI ..(?some confusion in timing below?), possibly to discuss the above...
An important stage begins for the Argentine Republic and the challenges offered by the trial for the expropriation of YPF.
This Wednesday, May 29 at 6:00 p.m. (ART) , I will be giving a virtual conference where I will talk about the history behind the trial, the interpretation of Argentine laws by foreign courts and what can happen now that the country has appealed Judge Loretta Preska's ruling.
The conference will be in Spanish and was organized by
@Abogadosdelf and the Argentine Lawyers Association (New York).
For those who wish to participate, I share the Zoom data.
Topic: ACADEMIC MEETING COMMISSION OF COLLECTIVE LAW
Time: May 29, 2024 06:00 pm GMT+08:00
Login Zoom Meeting
hxxps://us02web.zoom.us/j/9447524535?pwd=SEg5eEFXTkdCUnVDM2ZiTFNVU3pGZz09&omn=83961623067
Meeting ID: 944 752 4535
Access code: justicia
E and OE,
GLA and ATB
Started: RIDER75, 28 May 2024 15:07
Last post: extrader, 28 May 2024 17:13
Burford
@BurfordCapital
·
41m
Burford Capital is expected to join the broad-market Russell 3000® and small-cap Russell 2000® Indexes.
Click to read the release.
hxxps://burfordcapital.com/insights-news-events/news-press-releases/burford-capital-expected-to-join-russell-3000-and-2000-indexes/?utm_source=sm&utm_medium=twitter_&utm_content=
#legalfinance #litigationfunding #BurfordCapital
GLA
Might joining the index have any meaningful impact on sp?
Started: MrMarroc, 18 May 2024 03:13
Last post: MrMarroc, 27 May 2024 11:01
BlueWiley: just initial talks. Burford's team will be in Buenos Aires next week.
Thanks BBH I’ll be watching those dates closely. I believe Mr Marroc given his previous commentary does have and edge on local knowledge and an ear to the ground on current political moods..
Blue Wiley,
Don’t think Mr. Marci would be privy to that sort of information.
A couple of dates to watch though……..
4. May 28: Pre-motion conference in Judge Preska's court to present arguments for and against compelling Argentina to produce documents concerning the Republic’s current relationships with certain SOEs.
5. May 30: YPF judgment creditors will file reply to Argentina's response to turnover motion.
Courtesy of Mr. Marci in one of his earlier posts.
Mr Marroc are discussions to settle taking place or are they yet to start?
By the way, they travelled to Buenos Aires early in May. Will be in BA again next month.
Started: LearningG, 21 May 2024 15:30
Last post: ffcmember, 21 May 2024 16:10
Absolutely spot on both of you, I'll continue to hope we are over £13 when news drops , An excellent quarter then Sysco followed by YPF agreement ? now that put an end to my lottery subscriptions
Huge progress but SP back to where we were 12 months ago and 21% down on 52 week peak.
its a share for traders as revenue is so lumpy. Don't forget Q2 last year
"We have produced the strongest set of six-month financial results in Burford's history, with net income attributable to shareholders of nearly $240 million and tangible book value per share growth of 12% over the past six months. Our core portfolio generated a lot of cash with realized gains tripling on our core portfolio realizations, and new business was very strong. Our new valuation methodology is sensitive to interest rate changes and thus higher rates during the first six months of 2023 were a headwind for the fair value of our core portfolio, especially during the second quarter, but these valuation movements are non-cash and unrealized and are expected to continue to fluctuate over time. Operating expenses reflect strong portfolio performance and certain idiosyncratic events."
YPF in next 12 months and Sysco hopefully moved substantially on but Q2 and H1 23 were not soft. SP may take a while to firm up despite it being long term great value.
Started: time.will.tell, 21 May 2024 14:52
Last post: time.will.tell, 21 May 2024 15:30
Burford income comes in the last 6 months of the year, first 6 months are wipe outs , might get a random big case settle but generally they are low ball months.
any wind of a settlement discussion, this will sky rocket
As you say “ crazy value “ hopefully sometime in the next year petersen will come in ? I certain hope we are much higher than we are now when that happens !
Add now £10.93
How low will this go, crazy value
Just added ready for div and next 3-6 months lift.
£10.02
Started: extrader, 20 May 2024 18:02
Last post: ffcmember, 21 May 2024 10:24
BBH I’ve twice had that happen and both time mes the private investor got screwed. I’m sure bogart and Molot would be up for it as it would make them very very rich as opposed to paper rich as they are now but our hope should be to hope the sp is high at the time we chose to sell and not have it forced on us !!!! Imo obviously but I truly hope I’m not on the end of a hat trick
BlueWiley,
I agree, Burford will likely go private and could well be good news for us
And Ashmore latest :
Argentina: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) have approved the eighth review of Argentina's USD 44bn loan agreement, paving the way for c. USD 800m in loans for the country. President Javier Milei said the nation is on the brink of lifting foreign exchange controls and emphasised the government's eagerness to do so swiftly.
It won’t be long before Burford is taken private ..
Interesting article in today's FT, behind paywall (google is your friend). BUR isn't mentioned, but the private capital firms may be potential competitors at some point.
'Johnson & Johnson settlement shows the new stakes in litigation finance'
Article reports on J and J's talc litigation and a $ 14 Bn settlement....and Johnson's unhappiness that the claimants were part-financed by Fortress Litigation Assets, an arm of Fortress Investment Group, now owned by Abu Dhabi's SWF Mubadala.
J and J complain that the financial investors frustrate -cough- 'good faith' attempts at settlement, by holding out for higher ie more profitable returns.
.."
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/abd5bf98-378f-4322-b930-68c9b410e783
According to Fortress’s website, it has cumulatively funded $6.8bn in litigation finance. Industry participants say virtually every major private capital firm is involved in funding lawsuits, though often quietly and through affiliates. Centerbridge and Apollo both funded lawsuits of victims of PG&E while also being financial creditors and shareholders of the California utility that paid victims billions over its role in devastating wildfires..."
GLA
Last post: JammyC, 15 May 2024 18:27
I don't wish to jinx it but it's looking better in the US 🤞
Well let’s hope nobody is prepared to accept below $14 across the pond ! I’m long obviously but ide prefer this was the bottom???
Adding trade position, starting to sidewind now. Will double down on any further drop.
Like the Berenberg Bank write up - £16.00 by end of the year i reakon.
Unfortunately not everyone’s trading styles are the same.
Some short, some take a position when it drops and make a few bucks in an early rise (which can be a lot if trading 10000’s share), some buy and hold.
The buy and hold is the most painful, for me this is along term strategy why I buy and hold in Sipp.
Hmmm... I still don't get it as personally I would prefer the fairly large investment I have in BUR to go up not down regardless if I could buy more at a cheaper price. I don't get your logic.
Started: Renegade, 14 May 2024 08:30
Last post: MrMarroc, 14 May 2024 10:44
Another:
Busy month for Argentina in the international courts:
1. May 16: Argentina will file response to YPF judgment creditors' turnover motion.
2. May 17: Argentina and Bainbridge Fund will file a joint letter updating Judge Preska about ongoing discovery of sovereign assets.
3. May 21: Hearing in England's Court of Appeals related to the 2023 judgment against the Republic in the GDP-Linked Warrants litigation.
4. May 28: Pre-motion conference in Judge Preska's court to present arguments for and against compelling Argentina to produce documents concerning the Republic’s current relationships with certain SOEs.
5. May 30: YPF judgment creditors will file reply to Argentina's response to turnover motion.
Judge Preska asks Argentina and YPF judgment creditors to appear in a pre-motion conference on May 28 to present their arguments for and against compelling Argentina to produce documents concerning the Republic’s current relationships with certain SOEs.
Started: Oilyali, 13 May 2024 15:58
Last post: Oilyali, 13 May 2024 16:00
I guess a few may have been waiting for the bottom to pick up?
But who knows?! 😜
Started: ffcmember, 13 May 2024 15:28
Last post: ffcmember, 13 May 2024 15:28
I can’t gloat as I didn’t like 1st quarter results but my ISA is now three quarters full ( holding a bit back in case we’re not at bottom)!
Patience really is a virtue after all !!!
Last post: time.will.tell, 13 May 2024 15:28
Adding now £11.63 to SIPP. Not trading yet.
Expecting it to drop futher. As long time now till the next update.
Twt,
Trading was as expected. MM's struggling to get a grip of the SP early doors. Tried to buy in moderate chucks but often went to negotiated trades. Yanks took their time but a drop was inevitable as they digested the figures. IMHO, the immediate SP predictions are still uncertain. Bogart calm and pretty much unfazed by the whole issue. Staying put for a while until things settle. Hold that page until next news.
Hope that you took advantage of the drops?
Adding to SIPP for long term. Will start to trade soon but might drop further in the short term. As results look bad if you don't understand the business. Which most investors don’t.
All eyes over the pond now to see the next direction Burford takes unless they can convince the market during the conference call.
Started: Renegade, 10 May 2024 21:51
Last post: Renegade, 13 May 2024 15:00
Well, a mixed bag of buying for me. Well below my Saturday 1180p forecast.
Happy days I hope.
"Looks like opportunity to add a trade has come sooner than I expected. :D"
I saw that and added a few earlier.
Argentina is doing well implementing Milei's plans, it's becoming harder for his opposition to make up scare stories and fight the changes. Along with pushing towards the US economic network should have caused a larger rise in the share price.
Their 2046 bonds have gone from 25 to 47 in the time since the elections
That is a drop in YTM from 16.8% to 9.7%
To put it another way the premium over US bonds have dropped from roughly 12% to 5%
Looks like opportunity to add a trade has come sooner than I expected. :D
Large Long term holding in SIPP, always.
Trade in ISA, at the moment I went full in on that easyJet drop last week, when the boarder gateways went down, their results are Thursday coming and should be strong, already up.
BUR I’m not sure is a trading stock currently, better options available. If it drops I will add, if it goes up happy days for my SIPP. The results Q1,23 were actually good! Strong operation gains from YPF adjustments, won’t get that again in these results. Really hard to tell what will happen, but if it keep dropping to where you said, I will def trade it sane as you.
Twt,
May I be so bold as to ask you what you think the SP will drop to if the 1Q24 results are not that spectacular or mediocre? I have in mind 1180p ish and have a chunk of capital ready for further buys at or around that level. If the results on Monday are good/v good, my capital will be used to buy in gradually and further add to my existing shares. After that it's sit tight and wait for any new impending news.
This is Burford after all and difficult to predict at best but thanks in advance for any thoughts you may have.
Started: BigBaggerHungry, 11 May 2024 11:00
Last post: MrMarroc, 13 May 2024 11:00
They are not liked people in Argentina.
Is this because of some kind of emotional luggage against Eskenazis?
Understood Mr Marroc - thank you for your input. Q1 results today .. Will we be up or down?
The Petersen companies are currently being administered by the Spanish Liquidator named by the Madrid Commercial Court N.3 in early 2014.
Late in 2014, the Liquidator filed the Liquidating Plant which was approved by the judge. The plan included launching a search of a firm that would finance and administer the case that would eventually be filed against the Republic. Several firms submitted bids. Prospect Investments (Burford won). The price paid? We all know it. EUR 15m plus 30% of the economic award.
Whatever money Burford negotiates with Argentina, the Madrid Commercial Court and the Liquidator, will distribute the funds to the Petersen companies' creditors. Repsol and Anchorage Fund are among these creditors.
Very little money, if any, will be left for the Eskenazis. This is critical. If the Argentine Congress realizes (and it will!) that the Eskenazis will be benefiting from the award, then approval will take time and will be very complex. If on the other hand, no money is left for them, then Congress may go ahead and approve the award "faster".
Hope this helps.
Continued ……..
The Petersen Group was absolutely out of the claim and the rights to collect, a situation that is judicially clarified in the Spanish justice system and recognized by the Burford themselves who desisted from claiming Petersen
Taken from in todays news;
https://www.delsurdiario.com/35682-nueva-caso-ypf-piden-embargar-aerolineas-argentinas-el-banco-nacion-el-bcra-y-hasta-los-satelites
Started: BigBaggerHungry, 11 May 2024 10:56
Last post: BigBaggerHungry, 11 May 2024 10:56
Burford Capital goes for everything. The winning vulture fund in the trial against Argentina for the way in which the country re-estitized YPF in 2012, not only wants embargoes to be enabled on the shares of the oil company in the possession of the national state, but also seeks to take into account the roles that the country owns Aerolíneas Argentinas, ARSAT, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), the Banco Nación and Enarsa.
The fund filed a letter in the last hours in the Court of First Instance of the Second Section of New York managed by Loretta Preska, so that the actions that the Argentine Republic has in these societies are considered as an "Alter Ego" of the country. And that, consequently, those positions are considered as part of the assets of the Argentine state. And, then, seizable as a guarantee that the country will fulfill the commitment to pay the plaintiff, the US$ 16 billion plus interest than Burford and Eton Park (as a minority) that Preska considered as claims of the two funds that expired in the trial.
The New York judge, who determined that the lawsuit of Burford and Eton is correct and ruled against the country, a decision that the country took to the second instance of the New York Chamber of Appeals; now she must resolve the claim of the two funds that want to guarantee the future collection, seizure assets of Argentina. In March they had presented the alternative of considering the shares of YPF as "Alter Ego" of the country, and now they extend the claim to those other companies in power all or in part of the Argentine state.
Preska also has to resolve another issue raised by Burford Capital and its partner in the lawsuit, Eton Park: the calculation of interest that the country will have to pay for having decided to appeal to the second judicial instance of the United States. According to the judge, in principle the interest accumulated to date would reach 545,084,808 dollars; so the money that should be paid to the plaintiffs who expired in the first instance would exceed US$ 17 billion today.
That is, the United States. Justice usually takes the performance of the 10-year bonds issued by the government of that country during the current year of the application of the lawsuit, so the final calculation would be just over 500 million extra dollars that should be added to the original claim authorized by Judge Loretta Preska.
Burford claims for the alleged damages that the payment to the Spaniards of Repsol caused to the remaining 49% of the shareholders of the oil company, after the nationalization of 2012. The basis of the demand is for the expropriation of most of the shares of the oil company, but on behalf of the Spanish companies Petersen Energía and Petersen Inversora, two companies already bankrupt, opened by the Petersen Group in the days when it was a partner for 25% of YPF and from the fact that former President Néstor Kirchner enabled his income as local partners of the oil com
Started: Laughton, 9 May 2024 09:23
Last post: Laughton, 9 May 2024 09:23
Interesting insight on economic progress - positive news for BUR I feel. Just Google, should get you past the paywall.:-
Milei’s Argentina is fast becoming the Texas of Latin America
and
Argentina’s Lithium Triangle bonanza hands Javier Milei a trump card
Started: Accomp, 9 May 2024 00:21
Last post: time.will.tell, 9 May 2024 07:36
Stick your finger in the air, we have Q1 coming!
I think they will either be similar to Q1,23 or better showing more cash generation. We know it usually the slowest quarter.
2024 Q1 Results to be released noon (BST) on Monday 13th May.