George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
GTX you rightly correct my message, most tpaftermarket trades in us were around $16, with the last trade of just 2 shares at $16.6.
GTX, your comments on the value here are absolutely correct, they are active across many types of action in many types of business, with a great reputation to support their market leading position. My investments here have transformed my finances.
GLA
Having got quite excited by GTX message I had a further look on Nasdaq site, which shows 1312 shares traded in yesterday’s after hours, the majority of which at around $13, but the last trade at 18.49pm was for just 2 shares. Nothing was showing yet for pre-market activity.
However I expect some excellent results to come through, and am disappointed that broker forecasts are still not recognising the potential.
The SWSt calculation makes no sense, their is based on a cash flow basis, so is probably penalising valuation gains which usually come through as cash eventually, and assumes a 17% pa fall in earnings, when an informed view would be substantial increase in earnings on a cash basis for years to come. SWSt point out risk factors for Burford, which IMHO are total hogwash.
SWSt calculates a possible 15 bagger for Shanta Gold, which I cannot really believe, so it remains as a small part of my portfolio, whereas my Burford holding is substantial.
Whilst you look at other sources of data, it’s worth a look at the US Barchart site which has lots of information.
Starvest mentions GGP as it’s major investment, out of a total investment of around £6m, which covers investments in over 20 locations worldwide. Clearly there is some liaison implied by Starvest renting office space at 33 St James Place from Greatland. However a review of Greatland Gold investors on the SimplyWallSt site, Starvest is not listed as an investor on a list going down to holdings of 10.5m shares, around £900k in value, or 0.2% of Greatland shares, inclines me to think that this is not likely to have significant impact of Greatland shareholders.
It looks like the valuation change due to the impact of interest rates is to exclude $56k of the $247k of cash receipts from the capital provision income in the reported results. It is quite a large negative effect relative to the disclosed $35k of Capital Provision income.
Real interest in USA today, with nearly 1.5m shares traded in day before price at day end up over 5.4% to $14.39. (at $1.27/£1 = £11.33p.
Seeking Alpha yesterday ran an interesting item on Greenhaven Fund's 2023 Q2 investor letter which mentions Burford as one of their better investments with more future upside, and looks ahead to it being likely that Burford it will become part of indexes such as Russell 2000, in which case more investment funds would need to be invested to track the market.
Johnny. I think that an post dated ex-dividend is unlikely, and frankly unworkable. When you sell shares you give up your rights to dividends other than those declared but not paid at the date of sale. I would anticipate a large cash inflow will have a huge beneficial impact on share price, and be earmarked against potential new investments and redemption of loans before establishing a pattern a regular high dividends in future.
Yahoo financial info appears to be sourced from Simply Wall Street, on which the holding of Mithaq seems to have disappeared. Looking at TR1 reports of major shareholdings I am unsure of the history of Mithaq’s holdings which appear to have been over 10%. It’s difficult to imagine why a serious investor would dispose of such a major holding, and would explain some of the extraordinary volatility of the share price in the last year.
More interesting is that Simply Wall Street now suggest a fair share value for Burford exceeding £25.
In the US today the SP started at around $13 and with some heavy volume during the day increased to $13.89, at $1.28-£1 equals £10.85.
GLA
In comparing 2022 first and second half year results, I noticed in the second half increased incentive expenses, but also higher income from capital provision and asset management. The relationship in percentage terms was similar.
The modest revaluation on YPF claim following the favourable court decision mentioned 3 times in the 2022 year end presentation (pages 6,16 and 41) is an important development, in line with the policy of actioning revaluation on significant case developments. The change of $185m is modest but makes a huge different to prospective total earnings for Q1. I agree that cash is important, but if Burford is continuing to make increasing investments is evidence that they are fairly confident of cash realisations in the near future. Market commentators have made much of the 2022 falling short of analyst expectations, and appear not to consider the vastly improved outlook we now see for 2023.
So let's do some sums for Q1, capital provision income based on 2022 average $50m, plus YPF revaluation $185m, costs at 25% of 2022 average $48m, Pre tax Profit of $187m less 15% tax say $28m = net earnings of $159m, or $0.73c per share. Based on the comments in the earnings call, I expect a somewhat better capital provision income than the last year average used here, and possibly also some asset management income. But this is far in excess of what analysts forecasting.
If I am anything like right, the Q1 figures for 2023 are worth looking forward.
Please advise if you see fault in my reasoning, thanks.
GLA but of course DYOR as GTX1 reminds us.