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However, the comments from Starvest affirming the potential value of Greatland Gold is encouraging.

Starvest mentions GGP as it’s major investment, out of a total investment of around £6m, which covers investments in over 20 locations worldwide. Clearly there is some liaison implied by Starvest renting office space at 33 St James Place from Greatland. However a review of Greatland Gold investors on the SimplyWallSt site, Starvest is not listed as an investor on a list going down to holdings of 10.5m shares, around £900k in value, or 0.2% of Greatland shares, inclines me to think that this is not likely to have significant impact of Greatland shareholders.

It looks like the valuation change due to the impact of interest rates is to exclude $56k of the $247k of cash receipts from the capital provision income in the reported results. It is quite a large negative effect relative to the disclosed $35k of Capital Provision income.

Just noticed the exceptional volumes traded in US on Friday, nearly 8.3m shares.

Thanks BlueW, you beat me to it.

Real interest in USA today, with nearly 1.5m shares traded in day before price at day end up over 5.4% to $14.39. (at $1.27/£1 = £11.33p.

Seeking Alpha yesterday ran an interesting item on Greenhaven Fund's 2023 Q2 investor letter which mentions Burford as one of their better investments with more future upside, and looks ahead to it being likely that Burford it will become part of indexes such as Russell 2000, in which case more investment funds would need to be invested to track the market.

Johnny. I think that an post dated ex-dividend is unlikely, and frankly unworkable. When you sell shares you give up your rights to dividends other than those declared but not paid at the date of sale. I would anticipate a large cash inflow will have a huge beneficial impact on share price, and be earmarked against potential new investments and redemption of loans before establishing a pattern a regular high dividends in future.

Yahoo financial info appears to be sourced from Simply Wall Street, on which the holding of Mithaq seems to have disappeared. Looking at TR1 reports of major shareholdings I am unsure of the history of Mithaq’s holdings which appear to have been over 10%. It’s difficult to imagine why a serious investor would dispose of such a major holding, and would explain some of the extraordinary volatility of the share price in the last year.

More interesting is that Simply Wall Street now suggest a fair share value for Burford exceeding £25.

In the US today the SP started at around $13 and with some heavy volume during the day increased to $13.89, at $1.28-£1 equals £10.85.

GLA

Notably no broker updates this week. Perhaps they are just waiting to see half year results. I would have thought there was enough good news in Tuesday’s announcements to see some movement already.

Further to the improved Jeffries rating in the UK, (though not reported here by LSE), ratings have also improved in USA, with a 20% improvement to share price ranging between $18 to $22.50

In comparing 2022 first and second half year results, I noticed in the second half increased incentive expenses, but also higher income from capital provision and asset management. The relationship in percentage terms was similar.

The modest revaluation on YPF claim following the favourable court decision mentioned 3 times in the 2022 year end presentation (pages 6,16 and 41) is an important development, in line with the policy of actioning revaluation on significant case developments. The change of $185m is modest but makes a huge different to prospective total earnings for Q1. I agree that cash is important, but if Burford is continuing to make increasing investments is evidence that they are fairly confident of cash realisations in the near future. Market commentators have made much of the 2022 falling short of analyst expectations, and appear not to consider the vastly improved outlook we now see for 2023.

So let's do some sums for Q1, capital provision income based on 2022 average $50m, plus YPF revaluation $185m, costs at 25% of 2022 average $48m, Pre tax Profit of $187m less 15% tax say $28m = net earnings of $159m, or $0.73c per share. Based on the comments in the earnings call, I expect a somewhat better capital provision income than the last year average used here, and possibly also some asset management income. But this is far in excess of what analysts forecasting.

If I am anything like right, the Q1 figures for 2023 are worth looking forward.

Please advise if you see fault in my reasoning, thanks.

GLA but of course DYOR as GTX1 reminds us.

BBH. SP now at $13.55 in US, having touched 13.59 earlier.

Report from Alphyn Capital Management is a very interesting and positive take on Burford.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/burford-capital-limited-bur-won-124554689.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAK9CTf3ru0s6FPUJnBIxzwSNS3KUId1CEu2jEZh2dEazjl90OaGr44LCH7cbbQNwLTT6xvCwvNhZQNSeKa2l0bENHimLNFYJqxzqhxViu2D2ST4NQVlR4aUziwcecm-ouowMgo0tMiCsQzEDISVphhYhQ2qOdH3GHeSGOE5ND7M

USA markets Easter holiday is only Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Open for trading on Monday.

I am invested, but reduced my relatively small holding this week at a loss as I needed in add to one of my favourite holdings. I invested after the fall in price after the news in December 2022 of 2 case losses on Lionfish, (out of the 10 live cases reported in the 2022 interim report). I thought their was a prospect of reasonable return in the rest of the business. But there must be a story behind the sacking of the chief executive 3 months ago, who apparently holds over 11.9m shares, having increased her holding by 385,000 shares after the SP fall in early December.
The market capitalisation of £36m is less than net assets of £62m (including intangibles of £55m) as per 2022 interims. (I take a hard line on intangibles, because in many cases goodwill arises from the excessive acquisition costs over book value). I note the the extra revenue generated in 2021 weakened the average Profit margin.
The half year report, included a prior year adjustment to 2021 reported creditor liabilities of over £0.5m, a 37%+ error.
The market is clearly punishing RBG, but with the Lion fish uncertainty, on he basis of the limited information made public I anticipate earnings per share for 2022 to fall to around 5p, giving a PE ratio of 7, in an industry which should produce better returns. As GG asserts, RBG is for the brave, but due your own research.

Burford closed at $11.11 up over 53%, with over 16m shares traded.

It is favourable Peterson judgement. See RNS just issued.

Bloomberg law article published today is a more balanced review of how Sysco's actions have sought to undermine the basis of their funding from Burford,

Looking back over the presentation released last week there is much to like.
More than 3 times last years court hearings scheduled already for 2023, case conclusion rates improving, and more than 20% increase in expected settlement gains.
I’m looking forward to much better results for 2022 and strong start to 2023 confirmed in the Q1 reporting.