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Sorry $1.3bn.

I appreciate the analysis of benefits of YPF settlement by GTX1, on Thursday. Remember though that Burford need approx $1.3m to cover the book value carried in the accounts, anything above that amount would be subject to incentive payments and tax liabilities. Even taking that into account, the net benefit should be substantial, and it still appears to be ignored by the markets.

Pennylots, I am with HL, my dividend arrived on 17th June as expected, and was posted to cash on my SIPP and ISA accounts, but did not yet add to amount available to invest. I not sure when that occurs but it doesn’t bother me as I’m not investing further at this point, though Burford still looks a great investment opportunity.

Chris Bogart reaffirmed case gains model. About share price, which currently broadly reflects nav, with prospective gains and fund management fees exceeding $2.5bn to come, plus effectively a free lottery on YPF gains.

Burford has looked at it expected outcomes from the cases in progress (excluding YPF/Eton Park) and anticipates gains of $2.2bn. Their are unrealised gains already recognised in Burford balance sheet of $890m of which is mostly the $727m on YPF, these together with some consolidated third party interests not part of Burford itself comprise the $1.3bn.
The $2.2bn gain at 137% of costs committed is strong but expected given large cases underway for results will be boosted by covid delays. The management must have high confidence in this disclosure.
Prospects look very good, and with a good YPF settlement would be brilliant.

Da_Master, Gtx1 has made an excellent informed response to your post. The cash from selling your Bonds could be re-invested in Burford stock, I envy your opportunity here. All the Best.

At current exchange, also a useful exchange rate gain in US dollars.

The early redemption of the August 2022 bond just announced today suggests some useful cash inflows.

Renegrade, thank you for updating on USA disclosed short positions. UK positions now only 1.2%, and easy to find.

My favourite page on this site is under the Share Price Tab, as the information you see is a general view of share price, company summary, interday share price movement, 3 month share price chart, summary of trading data including volumes bought and sold, table of recent trades, 1 year of director deals, and finally 5 recent posts. Furthermore that page has over a dozen tabs with additional information including UK short positions.

Currently only UK short position is Gladstone at 1.2%, as nothing is now shown for Kuvari. Which is as reported by the FCA report of reportable positions over 0.5%

Look in the Annual Report, last page of Management Letter, which mentions intention to start quarterly reporting in 2023.

The trading update on the 15th February relates only to activity in 2021, during which the Akhmedov matter was the only significant cash settlement. Note that this update specifically mentioned no significant fair value adjustments for 2021. I would expect the publication of final 2021 results to comment on 2022 only in respect of matters already settled.

I believe that on 24th January the court finally approved the settlement to be settled 15th February. I doubt that Burford would issue their remarks until after settlement processed.

Two odd features in the analysis of trades today on LSE.
There was a large trade occurring before 10am which caused the significant price jump at that time. This trade of over 160k shares at £7.20 was not listed until 11.43am, at which time the SP was nearly £7.30, so LSE attributed this as a sale. As the SP never fell below £7.25p it seems more probable that it was indeed a Purchase.
Late in the day there was also significant purchase activity, being purchases of 81k, 46k and 100k. (oddly the 100k was placed, cancelled and then replaced - all at the same price of £7.31624).
All round a really good trading in the UK with 4 major purchases totalling over 380k shares.

US trading Today, (Thursday) over1.57m shares. Notably in 4 15 minute periods just over 0.25m shares traded, which according to impact on share price were purchases. The US price advanced from a low opening at $8.62 to finish $0.54c higher at $9.16.

Renegade and I have been sharing our sources of information, so we have, Markerbeat, Barchart, Nasdaq, to which I would add Simplywallstreet.

Rene, I first noted total trading of over 1m shares on the Barchart site but the detail on trades during the day did not make sense, so found the after hours data on Nasdaq site. Barchart has many pages of data to look at, including analysts views (though only 2), and option prices.

Looks like 2 purchases of 370k shares at $9.19, shortly after markets closed.

Shaky, interesting but the $841m includes the funds from which Burford shareholders benefit only in respect of management fees, the returns in funding provision on Burford are historically in the region of 95%.

I posted an assessment in January and have just updated for a typo error and a low estimate on interest costs, so here the revision, which is not significantly different, and broadly in line with the higher estimates from Travis Wiedower and Emeth Value.

Burford portfolio at year increasing by 0.3m in 2021 to around $3.25bn, and case resolution assuming a slower case resolution rate averaging around 4.5 years until CV19 delays resolved gives annual gross income of $903m, assuming profit to cost ratio of 125%, (longer resolving cases result in higher returns in Nov 2021 presentation). Then deduct Op expenses $80m, financing of $60m, and incentive costs of 10% $90m, being total costs of $230m, giving PBT of $673m and tax at low teens percentage, say 15% resulting in PAT of $572m. GBP per share £1.92p, and PE ratio of 15 gives share price of £28.80p.

This does not include potential from performance fees for assets under management and a good Petersen result.

Monday looks like a great days trading, Not so sure the 300k was a sell, it could have been a buy triggering the 5p price jump after 1pm. In New York Shares rose over 3%, to finish at $9.42c at ex rate of 1.344 that’s £7.00.

Several reports including Bloomberg of $45bn finance.