Member Info for Accomp

Looks like one transaction to Buy nearly 290,000 shares yesterday, total shares traded nearly 580,000. Note also higher volume of trades in US over last 5 days.
Worthwhile to checkout a 7 minute video by Christopher Bogart titled “What’s ahead for Legal Finance in 2022” posted last month on Burford website, indicating more future opportunities.

Just Bought 150 on a new trading account, I noticed the transaction recorded as Sell. Looks like that determination is based on a guess relative to quoted bid/ask!

I acknowledge that the court are frustrating, but Burford potential is still strong.

Looking at Portfolio at mid-year having possibly increased by year end to $3.3m, and even assuming a slower case resolution rate averaging around 4.5 years until CV19 delays resolved gives annual gross income of $917m, assuming profit to cost ratio of 125%, (longer resolving cases result in higher returns as per Nov 2021 presentation). Then deduct Op expenses $80m, financing of $40m, and incentive costs of 10% $92m, being total costs of $212m, giving PBT of $705m and tax at low teens percentage, say 15% resulting in PAT of $599m. In GBP per share £2.01p, and PE ratio maybe 15 gives share price of £30.

Don’t forget further potential from performance fees for assets under management and Petersen of course.

Significant afternoon SP jump in US yesterday to $10.35, equivalent to £7.80p.

I’m with HL and my dividends with any of my holdings alway in my account on payment day.

Thanks Flakey, I did see the increased short interest reported in US, but the increase of 50%, took the level to only 0.2%, and is lower than the reporting threshold of 0.5% applicable in the UK.

I would not expect much impact from inflation. Legal fees incurred would be the first charge against the case recoveries, and Burford win the overwhelming majority of cases. As regard damages or settlement, the values would we more aligned to the current cost of restitution, so may increase in line with inflation. As regards Burford’s operating costs, those should be more in tune with overall case activity.

I cannot see any change in the short positions declared since Gladstone at 1.2% on 6th October and Kulvari at 0.54%.

Would Flakey kindly explain where he gets this info from.

Regarding Heru's question, short interest is about Investment Groups taking a bet in a possible future price fall for a stock by borrowing shares from other Investment Groups (for a fee), and selling shares in the hope that they correctly judged the market and can buy them back at a lower price, return the shares to the lander, and take a profit. It the shares subsequently rise rapidly they would need to buy back quickly to reduce their losses.
The following is the link to the FCA website, which lists the reported short positions of more than 0.5% of a companies stock, changes of which have should be notified daily by 3.30pm.

https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/short-selling/notification-and-disclosure-net-short-positions

However the FCA may not update very promptly, as did happen (when Muddy Waters made their initial Short Attack in early August with 3 reports there was nothing reached the daily update report until late on 7th August).

WSJ compared the analysts prices given to the last week’s closing price of $11.51, so will be per share. Usually the price in US converted at exchange rate is within a few pence of UK price. However during last week with the increasing prices the US price was occasionally 20c above the exchange rate converted UK price.

Wall Street Journal now summarises higher share price targets averaging $17.34, in range of $15.00 to $20.60.

Recent trading volumes in US increasing, over 600k today. Volume also high in London at over 450k.

Significant trading activity for Burford on US market today (Wed). Over 500,000 shares traded, 5 times daily average.