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I agree. I read the RNS as drill ready to go.
I am sceptical about the mini LNG. But I suppose ARa might have a plan Aex don't know about? Why not in the RNS?
CP, "Incidentally IF we have had the GSA signed how on earth are we still waiting for an RNS to confirm that?"
Did you miss yesterday's RNS in the afternoon?
"Given tone of the RNS, CH-1 drill rig contract with spud date seems to have already been agreed"
Not quite sure I read that Wonderer but everyone reads things differently I suppose.
The drilling of CH-1 and CPR update will get this moving in the right direction and I think given the hint in the RNS this will soon follow once the 25Yr Development License is issued.
Any oil and gas share I've followed has always had a mega run up to spud and results so if we get CH-1 drill rig contract with spud date then we will see a major spike to and after results
In the meantime, the expectation of the CPR, 25Yr Development License and drill rig contract should keep the sp climbing towards news
It was not in the RNS, but this was...
"Payment may be made by the TPDC in US Dollars or Tanzanian Shillings".
I've probably missed something here, but if the GSA has been signed I can't see anywhere how much we are actually being paid for the gas. Any info would be appreciated.
At the AGM in May it was stated that for production to be possible in Q1 2024, pipeline construction would have to commence by the end of October, implying a build time of 2 - 3 months. One reason for that assertion was that pipeline construction would be severely compromised during the "rainy season" and so would need to be completed before the rainy season started. Consequently since it became evident that it had not commenced in October, I have always been of the belief that it would not start before March / April in any event. If not April, when is the next window? October 2024 perhaps? That would be compatible and consistent with a 12 month deferral from the original date. If not that, then what? March / April 2025?
It was also anticipated that the GSA and Pipeline initiation would fall at the same or similar time, implying that the workover of NT2 would take a similar length of time, if accepting that they would not start that work until that GSA was in place. So there is no great urgency to start the NT2 work and they quite possibly would not want to complete that work only then to have to recase the hole? Both CH1 and NT1 require the identification of a drill and signing of contract and the deferment of the pipeline construction.
So in short I do not expect much "operational" activity for a few months yet. Not a problem from a practical point of view and there are lots of others positive events in the offing BUT we have all seen what happens to AEX sp when there are gaps in news flow - a series of short term spikes that are sold into. Ideally what we need is a series of material events in quick succession that build momentum and keep people in the stock for the next event.
Incidentally IF we have had the GSA signed how on earth are we still waiting for an RNS to confirm that? It is self-evidently a material, price sensitive event...?! And whilst we know that the Tanzanian authorities always "vet" RNS's surely as a quoted company AEX LSE reporting responsibilities would override that?
Strange.
That said with the GSA now signed I am back as a "BUY". You never know, once we have a drill contract and a Pipeline date it might even go to "Strong Buy" ;0)
Anyway good luck one and all.
Plenty here trading the swings hence the sudden mini spike on news and sell off as traders make their change and move on.
But for the long term holders, yesterday's news was not only another step in the right direction but also a major milestone and derisking event towards First Gas.
Many seemed to have missed alongside the Gas Sales Agreement, an MOU for a mini LNG plant was also agreed.
This means that AEX will be able to generate revenues prior to the pipeline completion with production from CH-1, NT-1 and NT-2.
This will also lead to resources being moved to the reserves category, which will be the main drivers to value creation.
Now that the ball is rolling with the GSA in the back, we can expect the 25Yr Development License to follow soon as per RNS.
Given tone of the RNS, CH-1 drill rig contract with spud date seems to have already been agreed. Nothing gets more interest than an drill targeting a massive resource especially when we get the CPR confirming as much.
Woohoo Rojo! I qualify, I'm in!
Short-term junkies BG ?
Can I suggest that you form a committee of those obsessed with going nowhere in the long-term.
Membership should depend on being a shareholder for ten or more years, to be sitting on a significant loss, but still firmly of the opinion that the future is rosy. The longer it takes the better.
You could be chairman ?
Announcing the start of pipeline construction will be another catalyst.
ARA haven't been able to get on and do anything on site until the GSA and the Development licence is signed, so the delay in the pipeline is inconsequential if the wells are not ready to produce gas. However, at least ARA are assisting the Tanzanian authorities to expedite the construction of the pipeline as soon as possible.
That's true winalot, but any delay will impact Aminex and the SP negatively I think ?
But the pipeline isn't an AEX target, its the authorities target. So can't blame AEX if this one over runs Rojo
No, on it's own it won't. It is one item on a fairly long list, all/most of which need to be ticked before gas can be brought to market.
A positive development though.
One concern is the pipeline - 12 months is targeted, but when did Aminex ever achieve a target ?!
Some might even say imminent. Lol
Steady rise is fine by me. I don't like sudden spikes like yesterday. It's just the day traders trying to make a few tuppance in one day. Steady small rises until the next news which is very soon.
SP is driven by market sentiment, the market obviously doesn’t see this as a huge positive
Granted it’s a step in the right direction, but not there or anywhere near yet
I guess the news didn't suit the short term drill junkies, well not just yet, but it will. Lol
The GSA is huge news..just because the sp has not gone up doesn't mean it doesn't mean an awful lot. It's the confirmation of revenues. For AEX that's massive.
Doesn’t seem to mean an awful lot does it…..
Next up,development licence, rig news, 3D results and resource upgrade. Some great catalysts for sp increases. GSA was a biggie though and not sunk in yet that AEX and ARA have a short development path to huge gas revenues this year.
The oil was estimated at around 200mmbbls. The main target being the 8Tcf of Gas. Any oil would be an extra brucie bonus...
The Gas itself is worth circa £1billion net to AEX for its 25% share based on previous calculations which in a buyout would mean circa 20p per share payout.
I'd be happy with 10p.
No work over at NT2 The intention is to flow gas from there following mid year testing.
The work over was planned for. NT1 after the drilling of CH1 using the same rig. As previously notified, no rig is required to flow at NT2
ICB, your last post answered your own question. Kiliwani is a different licence