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El, I would agree that Chinese have a bit different mindset however Shg which is close to 200 m oz and a seperate v high grade resource almost as big as ours and increasing failed to to progress two Chinese bids because they were too low. M cap £100 m . I know we rarely see valuation in the same way but I try to use comparison.
C f, that is true but clearly calibre bought lots of future potential discoveries and two working mines for $100 m in a stronger market than now , before sanctions and worsening geo politicals . That’s my reasoning. Talk of $ 300 m will just lead to disappointment imv and possibly make life more difficult if Cnr come back with a best offer under half of that.
We are pretty much in the same gold belt as el limon who mine is only something like 20-30km away (from memory).
We also need to be reminded of the land package we have. El limon has produced over 3m Oz on a 300sqkm land package and they continue to find gold. We have a 600sqkm land package and we haven't even scratched the surface. 4-5m oz is likely very achievable here.
I think you probably place a greater emphasis on cashflow today than gold producers do (and particularly Chinese ones).
Gold producers already have cash flow for today. What they don't have is an ever-lasting supply of gold to dig up.
In addition, whatever you may think of them more broadly, the Chinese also seem to be better at patience and long-term planning than we do in the West. 2 years is nothing.
Crypto you obviously don’t understand the concept of pr!
Why would our chairman say that we would produce 150 k oz of gold this year ???? If you don’t think that the numbers could be boosted by some low ballers I think that is pretty stooopid.
Nero fair post , it is not very obvious that there is a defined period though. As you say they will end up with the fair market price and we are all guessing. Jhongle personally I think the idea that an offer with a 3 at the front is fanciful in the extreme and even a 2 is hopeful. An offer of $300makes it a $400 m buy to someone and a 2 year wait til commercial production. There are producers to be bought for much less with income streams .
This has been well and truly talked to death! Summer has come and gone and we don’t appear to be any closer? Ongoing presentations tell us very little but we have to hope that with land registration completion they are tidying up the loose ends?
If I were controlling the process I'd be looking to inflate the sp with binding offers then try and convert it to a whole company sale to one of the bidders at premium to the asset offer price.
That would make it easier process for everyone involved
Whilst you might keep one lower ball offer on the table ( because it is easy to convert into a non-binder) most of the other non-binders must logically be either reasonable or close to being reasonable. Against such an assumption, the handshake and briefcase emojis start to make some sense.
Whilst I can't understand the use of such emojis in a stock market regulated scenario, it does compute.
I agree that know one knows what level these offers are ar, I would, and am , argue that they are close to reasonable. I agree that we are unlikely to see the money this year, that JM will fill his boots with 15p warrants.
The current share price is a reflection of the uncertainty. Of you think that there is a strong chance of no deal, I get the current share price, but if you think that there is a strong chance of a reasonable deal, then it's an absolute bargain.
MC has already stated in his recent presentation that "the art now is to convert one of those 5 non-binding offers into a binding contract". Why does he not give us all a bit more confidence around that point ? This is where the negotiation conflicts with what he's prepared to tell shareholders. If he announces that the 5 non-binders are close, they won't move their offers by much. Total guess here, but I think that reason for this is that current offers are in the $200 m + range and BoD want one with a 3 in front.
Slippery, just my opinion but I think JM and MC HAVE to sell because for one reason or another they are not going to build the mine (and I don't believe they ever wanted to in the first place) and if they don't sell to a producer who will build the mine they will lose the permits. MC has stated that the sales process has a defined duration (not being disclosed), perhaps because they've agreed that time period with the Ministry of Mines in order to get the rubber stamp for conducting the asset sale. Of course, they will tell the market "we will not sell this cheap" and "if we don't get the right price we will build ourselves" (that's just common sense), but what they really want is the fair, market price for the assets as they know they won't be able to get more than that. The goal of the sales process is to discover the fair market price of the assets through competing bidders, rather than one low ball offer.
I'm guessing they will sell the assets this year, the question is for how much and none of us know what that will be, it all depends on whether they have some of these non-binder offer bidders competing with each other behind the scenes. But this is all just guess work on my part, I have no special knowledge different from any of you.
Agree Slippery, apart from I don't think big investors tend to care what their average is, and so it's not that particularly useful for us to know what it is, one way or another. I mean, sure, JM will take as many 15p warrants as he can get his hands on, but I don't think the price he will want to sell them for has a lot to do with his average. It'll be far more about extracting value from his investment. Which goes back to what MC was saying recently: $400m NPV minus a discount as it's pre-production. We don't know what that discount will be, it may be large, but that seems to be where our bargaining position is starting from.
Pot kettle Crypto
There is no way any of us know what the offers are. There are arguments for them being both low ball and acceptable.
We don't even know what acceptable is!
All we know is they're not going to sell it short of their perceived value. Which I would GUESS is bove JM's break even point and I don't recall anyone accurately stating what that is.
So as frustrating as it is we have wait patiently like good little PIs. Whatever we think or say on here isn't going change anything.
It's as johngle said. Condor gold has declared to the market they have 5 non-binding offers at the same time MC states they are rejecting all low ball offers. Common sense would say the offers fall within MC and Jim acceptance range.
Why on Earth would you declare 5 non binding offers to the market that you have rejected!?
Talk about being stupid
jhongle, i see the logic in your post and hopefully one offer is possible to convert. didn’t sound though that it was close to me. as regards the 5 offers, i think it is quite possible that some of them are low ball. let’s be honest, in a sale scenario you want to make things sound as positive as possible to possible purchasers. you certainly wouldn’t say we have one decent offer and 4 low ballers would you. the fact is that 10 months in there is no binder and at last count 3 site visits. nobody knows what is considered a decent offer and how it translates into shareholder returns. mellon not accepting a low offer means no more to me than 150 k oz this year did 2 years ago.
regarding an ortega or two being invested, if true probably as ****ed at their investment as many here and probably open to brown paper bags from china .
we won’t see cash in 2023 imv.
Per my post yesterday, I am assuming that if MC hopes to convert one of the current 5 non-binding offers to a binding offer, then at least one of those 5 non-binders must be at a reasonable level. They probably all must be at least half reasonable , otherwise they'd have been rejected out of hand, but instead, they are still on the table. MC did say in earlier presentation that they had turned down low ball offers, but surely they went straight in the bin and aren't included in the current 5 non-binding offers ? You wouldn't continue to include an expired or rejected offer in this number surely.
Ben, you state "may be a good explanation why the offers we've received so far are so low". You know nothing as to the amounts being offered. Please be careful what you post. All we know there have been 5 non binding bids to date and there are approx. 10 NDA's. As to what bids have been received has not been disclosed.
Nero you wrote "Remember, a number of Nic officials are also shareholders (Including Ortega's son)
I very much hope that this info is "false" , the Ortega family as most of the Nicaraguan officeals are under US sanctions If any of them is shareholder It's a huge liability for Condor (may be a good explanation why the offers we've received so far are so low )
Can you point us to the source where you got this info?
By the way , assuming your info is correct (I'm sure it's not) don't you think it would be much easier and safer for GM to do so while the company is private rather than public subject to much more regulations....
100K trade, looks like a buy to me (18.74p. Trade before was 18.50, trade after was 18.55, later trades going through at 19).
Cautiously concur with Geng that the bottom may be in. Be greedy when others are fearful, etc.
Fcuk off huge sell order in the background of the mm's are taking the p!ss
3 days running buys well in excess of sells and 3 red days
He could, but I don't think he will. Why? He's a banker - not a miner. He could become a miner if he wanted to of course, but he has so much else going on between his other companies, writing books and trying to live forever, I can't see him wanting to take the time and energy to build a mining company. That's not where his interests lie it seems to me.
19p is the bottom of medium term rising channel, previous bottom of channel was back in March at 15p, current top of the channel is 37p - almost 100% from here. RSI way oversold and on very low volume.
Looking good to me!
Implicit in your argument is that taking the company private results in a hiatus in the development of the mine.
I don't see that. From 3B's point of view if he can't get the right sale price then he needs option 2 which is to develop the mine. However, AIM is a cr*p place to raise the necessary capital and anyway why share the gain with smuks like us who've taken on the lion's share of the risk. No grab the company for a song, then move swiftly without the encumbrances of a listed company to get round all the various roadblocks e.g. US sanctions that catalysed his decision to sell and make a killing.
While we sit on the sideliners and can only watch....
Nero, I hope you are correct but the direction of travel with the SP and lack of progress in clearing the last hurdle tells me a different story. Yes, this can be volatile and can move quickly - we've seen that over the years but for the past 9 months the movement has been in one direction.
Great post Nero120,
Thanks for blowing away all the fog put out by disgruntled posters!
Thanks
Johnnytaffia I don't agree, this company will never be taken private for the simple reason that the government wants the mine built and will not allow JM to sit on the assets whilst they gather dust. Remember, a number of Nic officials are also shareholders (Including Ortega's son or something if I recall) so if JM plans to screw over shareholders things get very messy very quickly. Much easier just to sell the assets/company and everyone cashes in their chips.
The share price movements as others have noted are not based on news or are in any particularly large volume, so the price volatility is high. It goes up just as fast as it goes down.
Condor has a PROVEN asset with an NPV of $400m and %20+ IRR. The market cap is irrelevant, what matter is the price that the assets sell for and that has nothing to do with the share price, it is about the VALUE OF THE ASSETS. We will find out in due course once a binding offer has been made.
Up with BenBen on this one.
Clearly big boss billionaire can't get the price he wants and because 3Bs are naturally greedy he'll get it from the next best way, by stitching up the little guy. That's you and me in plain english.
Drift the price down to 15p and expectations will be adjusted downwards and when he generously offers to help us out of our misery at 25p we'll be gagging for it.
Just wait....