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1802 is definitely the biggy in my view.
Interesting link below although from 2019
https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/meet-the-protein-responsible-for-nearly-100b-in-cancer-drug-deals/561097/
I'm not sure "loss leader" is the description I would use for 1801. Best-in-class in a market worth c. $40bn would lead to a profit leader, & a big one too! More than big enough to fast-track everything else in the pipeline, if we haven't been gobbled up by that stage. Any advantage for 1802 created by 1801 is a healthy bonus as far as I'm concerned. I'm certainly not going to talk it down.
For me, 1801 was, always going to be the loss leader. Even the psoriasis indication is the path of least resistance to market. Almost every milestone that 1801 passes, validates 1802 to the point that a successful 1801 p1a means 1802 can go straight into paitient. The translational studies will incorporate all data learned so far. To the point that 1802 could be licence ready within months.
Exactly. P2 is also much more valuable from a licencing perspective. $310 Million was the average P2 licencing deal last year in the pharma sector (Source: JP Morgan). The P1 average was in the $47 million to $55 million space last year (JP Morgan). Therefore, chasing a P2 licencing deal would be much more attractive. Either way we win.....
Good luck, Brighty
It could also explain why the 1802 translational studies are taking so long (ignoring the funding issues).
Potnak, I believe there were several reasons to patent 02 in imm and it could turn out to be a very clever move. Credit is due.
As you say, one would take both more than not . It’s a serious option that a co would feel sensible to consider.
Soon to break 30p and up past 40p IMO...
Thanks Aber for the considered response. The closest we may come to having an individual on hand to keep the BoD honest is if any of our HNW chums are able to pick up the phone and contact Tim directly. Surely injecting such large amounts into SAR's coffers buys you some perks such as direct access to the BoD even if they can't tell you anything market sensitive.
Regards.
HI HBD -- That I could not answer as I have an I.T background and not a Business Background ... but having said that I feel most on this BB would have picked holes in both Consolidation reasons and the RF Fiasco;
I know it is a difficult ask as that person would be under complete NDA and would need a business mind as you state ... but currently I feel that the BOD are not being challenged with any decisions they make and have a free hand to do whatever they like which almost cost TM and JR (and the shareholders) their company ...
Maybe the solution is more communication so that we all get more of an understanding of the direction the BOD are considering ... comms is still the weak point even after shareholders expressed their discomfort during the AGM and we got acknowledgement from the BOD that they needed to make changes .... but have then gone back to their original treatment of shareholders as mushrooms;
For me I just wish to feel safe in the knowledge that we are on track and nothing sinister is going on in the background .. as per some of the conspiracy theories that floated around associating Parker and GSK and PH and RF with a possible destruction of SAR followed by a loan to buy / reverse takeover scenario
But in a nutshell I dont know the best outcome to allow greater consideration by the BOD of shareholders wellbeing.
Unfortunately we no longer have THOTH who had far more knowledge in this space -- I wish I had a better answer for you
Regards Aber
My questions yesterday re indications that overlap the two TYK2 compounds. I was asking this for a reason. If Company A were thinking of licencing 1801, then surely Company A would be looking at 1802, now patented for some immune indications. However Company B, a cancer-led pharma really wants 1802. This could cause a bidding war where a TO is the most cost-effective way of tying it all up or at the very least drives the value of the compounds higher.
My thoughts too, Potnak. Far to difficult to appoint someone, even one of the HNWs would probably shy away from the required scrutiny from us lot.
If Parker gets a hard time on here from LTHs, imagine what an (un)elected punter would get.
It would be impossible HBD. They'd be on an NDA, defo no posting here and only through approved channels. So effectively just like the IR person now but holding shares that would have to be declared to market.
Hi Aber - so what would be the vetting process for this nominated shareholder? How would we trust them with insider knowledge etc.? It's fine if they have a sufficient number of shares (is it 5% or 10% you need to get a seat on the board?) but otherwise what criteria would they need to have - a business degree? Otherwise they may be more of a hindrance than a help.
As much as we can complain on here there is absolutely nothing going to happen with SDC 1801 until full data results are released. That is the meat on the bone.
How we progress after these results are realised, we will be notified thereof.
Aussies have been good and expedient so far, as such not contemplating any unexpected delays. Sareum have money to pay the fees.
Ideally as l see it continue to phase 2a in Oz.
No bl00dy hold ups with our understaffed, overworked, inexperienced MHRA employees.
News can come anytime from.now until.end of H1.
Regards and enjoy the rise when it comes.
I'd say the answer is more nuanced. The Board does have some experienced deal makers in Owen and Parker but I don't think they have done any deals outside or with SAR since joining the board. The other issue is the lack of funds. SAR are always short of funds, it is the nature of being an AIM minnow. It's like having a Royal Flush in poker but not having enough cash to stake yourself in the game. We will always have to blink first. The last factor is the AIM drag. We all know that AIM minnows struggle with fair valuations. We'd probably be valued in the hundreds of millions already on NASDAQ. There is nothing we can do about it now as I'm sure there are many hoops to jump through to get a listing. Now imagine Tim M and Parker rocking into a meeting with some really good 1a data but only enough cash in the bank to see this t
year out and undervalued before even starting negotiations. They know the value of our compounds but beggars can't be choosers. IMO, we'll get a licence with good backend milestones and a decent upfront that is enough to keep the lights on and push 1802 into clinics and hopefully a bit left over so the 1802 negotiations can be more productive. IMO 1801 could be worth up to £800 million in milestones but they will all be p3 and commercialisation. for 1802, depending on the indications we could be looking at double the 1801 milestones. It's all bio bucks until phase 3 but if 737 is in play, then you are looking at 2 billion just for getting to the end of trials. Double or triple that valuation if they get approved for market. I doubt any of us will still be here for that but the market will work out a valuation for us while we wait.
Afternoon Brighty - I know there have been some good deals in our sector but are we convinced that our current management structure could broker such deals ? ... or possibly have they had a number of offers which would have been accepted by the majority of shareholders but have been rejected as they are holding out for possibly unrealistic higher values ? .. We all know that the comms link is broken / almost non-existent and unfortunately the shareholders currently have no visibility of any of the deal discussions. Personally, based on their poor managerial performance and lack of ownership of the SP crash and RF disaster, or apology to shareholders, I would like to have seen the shareholders getting more visibility of future decisions by the appointment of a nominated shareholder to the BOD discussions under NDA to uphold the interests of the shareholders (given the recent bailout to save the company) .. which is what Dr Owens was supposed to do .. and I say 'supposed to do' as we never heard him voice any concerns regarding consolidation, RF, SP Collapse etc etc
There does need to be change !!! We, the shareholders do need better representation as I do feel the BOD are too weak and poor in all but the science ...
This is only my opinion and much is unknown due to the continued lack of communication from our BOD
Exactly and it's not just AZ signing Phase 1 licencing deals recently. In the last year Eli Lilly paid Confo Therapeutics $40 million US Dollars in an upfront payment for its Phase 1 clinical trial candidate CFTX-1554. As part of the transaction Eli Lilly also agreed a total package of $590 million US Dollars in potential milestone payments and tiered royalties.....
Good luck, Brighty
2 lots of BED & ISAS gone through (15K and 74K) .. all 4 trades showing as sells which skews the picture
I was under the impression P1a / P1b was a fluid trial same as a 2a / 2b trial, as in if you you stop after P1a for any reason e.g. lack of funds or other reason then you cant restart a P1b at a later date and the only remaining option is a P2a.
Most trials are 1 then 2. Think the board originally chose 1a,1b because the value of deals would have been higher with good 1b data. This resulting 2a pivot is another reason I think a licence is inbound. No reason to do a 1b if you have the cash to go straight into 2.
Afternoon, quick question is the latest Edison report dated 03/04/24? Just want to clarify I’m reading the latest report
Hi Basil - it'd be interesting to know how many drugs developed by large pharma are able to skip P1b, not too many I suspect. I hope news of our intent is spreading through the pharma grapevine and we attract a major as a partner. That would put us firmly on the radar when it comes to 1802.
Any hint of good news and this will rise up quicker than a bad girls nighty
AstraZeneca has a track record of buying in to P1 clinical trials, especially once the topline data has been released. Another excellent example is Eccogene who were paid $185m upfront 5 months ago by AstraZeneca. This followed encouraging preliminary results from Eccogene's Phase I trial of ECC5004. In addition, Eccogene could receive up to an additional $1.825bn in future clinical, regulatory, and commercial milestones and tiered royalties on product sales. AZ could swoop in with a licencing deal for SDC-1801 if the preliminary results are good.
Easy multibag some like there 10% some invest and have a little patience
Watch this space it’s in demand and will get more and more in demand as we go higher
GLA