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I disagree, the Sareum business model is, and has always been to license pre or early clinical. Unless externally funded, 2a pivots away from that model. They will need £10 million for 2a and running cost to get to 2a Sara readout. Plus they need cash for 1802 development. I can't see the sp going much above 50p until the risk of a raise has been removed because why would you buy now if you could buy cheaper in the autumn? The pivot to 2a means a licence is inbound IMO. And I support that, even if the upfront is lower. I'm here until end of p2 anyway.
How can’t you be wrong funny when you said it will go up to a £1 or down to 10p.
More in depth in the link below.
https://worldwide.espacenet.com/publicationDetails/description?CC=EP&NR=2634185B1&KC=B1&FT=D&ND=1&date=20160113&DB=EPODOC&locale=en_EP
2.15 A compound of formula (2) or a salt thereof as defined in any one of Embodiments 1.38 to 1.105 for use in a method of treating a disease or condition in a subject in need thereof, wherein the disease is any one or more diseases or conditions selected from:
(a) skin inflammation due to radiation exposure;
(b) asthma;
(c) allergic inflammation;
(d) chronic inflammation;
(e) an inflammatory ophthalmic disease;
(f) dry eye syndrome (DES, also known as keratoconjunctivitis sicca or dysfunctional tear syndrome);
(g) uveitis (e.g. chronic progressive or relapsing forms of non-infectious uveitis);
(h) insulin- dependent diabetes (Type I);
(i) Hashimoto's thyroiditis;
(j) Graves' disease;
(k) Cushing's disease;
(l) Addison's disease (which affect the adrenal glands)
(m) chronic active hepatitis (which affects the liver);
(n) polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS);
(o) coeliac disease;
(p) psoriasis;
(q) inflammatory bowel disease (IBD);
(r) ankylosing spondylitis;
(s) rheumatoid arthritis;
(t) systemic lupus erythematosus;
(u) myasthenia gravis;
(v) transplant rejection (allograft transplant rejection); and
(w) graft-versus-host disease (GVDH);which method comprises administering to the subject an effective TYK2 inhibiting amount of the compound of the formula (2)
Plenty to choose from
I completely agree Potnak.
Get a good licensing deal, with enough cash up front get 1802 into the clinic... and have a decent cash runway for a few years. Then let a bigger player take on the further development of 1801.
I have zero faith in the Sareum board at this point. Having a more experienced partner involved would be a massive plus in my opinion.
Hi Pot, the Bod has led us down the path that potential partners need some proof of efficacy not only for a license deal but for shareholder value so if we are looking to license at the end of P1a now that would mean a smaller upfront compared to showing some efficacy in a P1b. So why change path now when we are only £500k short of the original RF full £5m drawdown and the advantages of continuing with the P1b in Aus, tax credits etc….
Close to 12 times themarket cap
Excellent posts this morning. I'm a bit like Benhowell in procrastination in selling. The takeout is cleaner if, of course, the price is right. 300 for a licensing deal in P2 is really good and is close to 12. Should times the current value of the company. I would not be surprised if Tim and Co. are already having on licence discussions with an interested and suitable party(s)should the results on P1a be successful as we hope and expect.
I think we'd all like a buyout and as, I've said before, I'd be disappointed with anything less than £10 pound a share. I don't think we are anywhere near that kind of valuation. More importantly, I don't think our board can get us there in a timely manner whilst at the same time, delivering shareholder value. IMO the board have gone as far as they can with Sareum and the compounds. They've done a good job over the last 15 years or so but have been shown lacking in some areas in the last 2/3 years. It's time to on license and get some experts to push it forward. Get a good upfront, get 1802 into a similar position then maybe buy in a compound to develop while we wait. The above is litterally the Sareum business model and what all LTH invested in all those years ago.
Looking at the exodus of companies from the cesspit that is aim if we are successful should we delist and look to go over the pond where funding and bio companies are more welcome ? Especially if we have a ph2 compound and 1802 to follow suite .
GLA
Brighty, thank you for your contributions to the board, especially in trying to put valuations on takeouts etc.
I, like many others, I'm sure would prefer a take out, lock stock and barrel. It removes the need to consider when to sell, something I am terrible at.
The only time I would prefer a licence is if we are offered enough $ up front for 1801 to enable a fast track like no other for 1802. However, I don't see John and Tim being able to fast track anything, apart from perhaps Priority boarding on an easyJet flight. Their way is slow and methodical. It serves a purpose, especially in getting clinical trials right. But a licence would only mean we have to wait 2 or 3+ years more for full value of all of our compounds...
Exactly. That's my point. The market would absolutely love a P2 trial RNS, especially if it was to be funded by a licencing partner in a multi million deal. The JP Morgan document posted on here regarding licencing deals in 2023 in the pharma sector indicates the kind of deal size we are looking at. $310 Million was the average P2 licencing deal last year.....
Good luck, Brighty
Yes, a move from P1 to P2 would see the value of Sareum increase exponentially as it would be a validation that the topline P1a trial had proven to be a success. Don't forget that Sareum has already produced data showing that its lead candidate SDC-1801 is superior to Dexamethasone in a trial. This is the same SDC-1801 that we are awaiting data on.
The added bonus Brighty1 is that an RNS announcement that we have been granted clinical phase 2 approval will raise the SP more than we are entering phase1b.
Regards
Not sure I follow your logic there, FunnyGuy. The pivot will come with news, which I suspect is still some weeks away (Q2/24). What might determine the short term direction of the SP will be volume. Thin volume and the MMs will walk the price down, but that will hardly constitute a "pivotal week". It will merely signify MM games and an attempt to flush out weak hands. Just my opinion, fwiw.
What makes the P2a study particularly interesting and exciting from an investment perspective is that whilst the average licencing deal for platform and discovery candidates in 2023 was $47 million and $55 Million respectively the average Phase 2 median upfront licencing deal in our sector was much higher at $310 million. Source JP Morgan. The link to the full report is below....
Good luck, Brighty
https://www.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpmorgan/documents/cb/insights/outlook/jpmorgan-dec-2023-biopharma-licensing-and-venture-report.pdf
Although more applicable to 1802 it is worth having a quick read of link below regarding MTD.
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/fda-drug-dosage-optimisation-guidelines-signal-clinical-trial-reform/?cf-view
Coming i think. Whatever your opinion of where you think this price is going, i think this week will indicate if its going to be up and getting to 100p or down and going to 10p.
For those of you heavily invested, good luck. I am happy to wait on sidelines and if i am wrong i move on
With all respects to Edison l doubt they could differentiate between phase 1b and 2a
May well be a phase2 SDC1801 in a very short while.
Just an enlightened here.
What is the advantage of phase 2a over phase1b?
There is a degree of similarity in the to a certain extent both these trials achieve the same thing.
Effectively proof of concept that the inhibitor is or will likely provide a viable therapeutic treatment for Psoroasis.
Phase 1 trial establishes safety profile.
Phase 1b small number of patients up to several 10's
Can be no increase in therapeutic treatment, basically no exceeding 300mg per day. I doubt we would need anywhere near 30 mg per day anyhow for Psoriasis.
Phase 2a similar number of patients as to Phase 1b. Proof of concept.
Phase 2b, a larger number of patients normally around a couple if hundred. Increased dosaging v effectiveness here. The purpose of this Phase is to establish statistical data ( accuracy is related to the magnitude of count) that will indicate to a certain degree not only the tolerability, safety, but also efficacy.
When all proceeds fine then progression to phase 3 typically involving 1 to 2 thousand people.
At this stage, we are looking at long term effects and the evaluation of the compound continues dnd if this particular compound exceeds the safety and efficacy of the current standard of care, then apply for clinical approval.
Phase 2 by the very nature will have far more clout and add value as you have gone from phase 1 to phase 2.
Phase1b cab be put into progress znd whilst progressing plans can be made, via whatever means onlicence, partnership, or buyout can be decided on.
Regards
Apologies if a few mistakes as mobile phone misbehaving. It not allow me to read through.
What a charmer this Nik nak is...
You're spot on, Officemanager 👍
I too missed the indication of going straight on to phase 2a. The reason I missed it was that I took it to be a (hope-filled) aspiration, i.e. that 1b could be done over the second half of 2024 and 2a, subject - mind you - to funding etc., begun by year-end. Chairman's statements are the place to bang the drum. But was I wrong?
Thanks for the link HBD good to read over the Edison report again, it comes across if data & safety are good then it's a wait and see if we can get a partner license deal otherwise it's more dilution, also moot point on P2a over 1b Edison does not differentiate and it's just down to wait and see. Feels like we are in a sidewards holding position when before we would have finished P1b this year....
I’m not even going to entertain you’re crap office I’ve got my answers from two other nice posters you can stew in you’re own arrogance.
NikNak222, I've filtered every name you come up with and will this one too, I won't be alone.