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Just took advantage of the crazy price drop today to buy some more at 98.5p.
It shows how strange (fixed?) the markets are when the share can jump close to 10% one day on 7 times normal volume, then tick back down to the current SP then yo-yo between 98p and 102p and back on far lower volumes.
CARD is clearly an unloved share in the FTSE where most focus is on banking, Tech and Industrials sectors.
We are probably suffering because CARD is classed as a retail share by brokers and analysts who, as we know, treat Retail sector shares as 2nd class citizens.
Roll on the results and an announcement on dividend recommencement which should help provide an underpin to the SP that will hopefully counter some of these shenanigans.
4% down when markets are flying, on a profitable cash generative stock says it all about the utter idiots in the City
Let's hope they do a 'spell check' on the RNS before release. It can be the best results ever, but they'll probably find something for it not to be!
The trades amounts are too low and numerous for it to be a leak… think people just think the drop to 90p as we’ve seen so many times is on its way.
Re the dividend post my concern is that we won’t see anything till end of FY25
I sold all of my MOON and put it all into CARD after buying birthday cards at CARD online.
CARD online has really improved Quality and the personalisation is equally as good as MOON and the prices are at least 50% less !
CARD told us in the January Trading Update that Results will be at the high side of market expectations. £62M
The restriction on Dividends was probably lifted in January and I expect a return to a small Dividend later in the year.
Tuesday 30th April should be a Good day !
If you want to be cynical then the 4m volume last Friday & resultant 10% jump looks a lot more meaningful than a subsequent 5% pullback
Or there's a leak and they're not much cop.
Classic behaviour to shake out weak hands ahead of Tuesday's results IMO.
Worth flagging the Capital Market's Day slides from last May; https://www.cardfactoryinvestors.com/media/sl0nstlz/cardfactory_capitalmarketsday_final-slides.pdf
Slide 94 is the key one
"Restrictions on payment of dividends continue to apply until CLBILs and certain term loans are repaid, these
restrictions are expected to be lifted after January 2024."
"Board intends to maintain a leverage ratio of between 0.5 and 1.5 times1. Provided leverage remains within this
range it is the Boards intention to pay annual dividends based on a targeted dividend cover of between 2 and 3 times
the groups consolidated post-tax profits."
Leverage at the HY results was only 0.6x, so there is clear headroom, particularly when they are trading at the top end of expectations.
Income funds & investors returning to the register should provide a significant boost.
We'll soon find out. That would be a moist dream Monday night, if they ploughed it into CARD instead!
City snobs are obsessed with Tech. If they actually went out into the real world outside of London they might actually notice things like CARD, take it in, look around, observe.
A third if not half the inside of the stores are gifts and other celebration items now with higher margins and growing basket price. I actually thing their 'Brand Name' doesn't do it justice anymore. Suggests just 'cards'
However with a growing online presence as well the future is very bright. I wouldn't even class MOON as a serious competitor, they have an online ceiling IMO.
Over a 1000 stores, with a virtually integrate production and distribution, and growing online presence, it's no wonder the big boys dumped £25m of MOON shares yesterday.
Well I wish it had some positive effect for us… this lack of movement upwards is ridiculous… feels like people have been through the ups and downs from previous announcements and now they just can’t be bothered with the headache
Yes rns out cardy smashing it
Largest holder dumped a third of their shares they know …
£25m share sell off. Thought there must have been a RNS or something, but no?
That’s better, a fair few big guys going through at the end of the day.
Someone had enough of the moon
Card smashing them
As Stach will tell you, those pesky mms!
And the reason for todays retrace is?
It has never followed the main indices up (or it would be substantially higher), or down so it won't be that one.
At this rate is will be 92p tomorrow !
Back to 92 by Tuesday, this really tests your patience
Was looking into the buying history of the current largest shareholder Teleios Capital Partners LLC to understand why they have been selling. It was pretty interesting.
They bought a 10% stake from Invesco / Woodford back in mid 2019 when shares were trading at £1.80 range. Then covid hit and sunk the shares, they doubled down and added another 31m in the 30-40p range, giving them a likely average in the £1.10 range.
When shares regained this level last April, they started reducing heavily, and at last update in Feb they were back down to their pre covid holding of 37m.
This is fairly obviously why shares have been stuck in the current range for the last 12 months on a sub 7x PE.
Now they have seemingly reduced their exposure considerably, you'd think that they would want to run the remainder of their holding back up to fair value, which is surely around 12x PE, where shares traded in 2017-19?
I'm with you on that. Tight budgets should have encouraged people to look at CARD FACTORY and once in there they'll realise quality is not forfeited for economy. Customer retention must be high.
I did notice my local card factory shop in Beckenham has the buy 3 get one free offer. Walk past the shop most days - it seems a lot quieter than usual at the moment
Hope this is just a glitch. Expecting big rises up to results. Come on cardy show us what you’re really worth.
Went into my local store and noticed a buy 3 get one free offer … didn’t see this before maybe it’s new.
Anyway …. Was hoping for a steady rise to 1.10 pre results but seems to have stalled this week
Certainly hope so. Why the price dropped so much after the previous announcement is not totally clear - but I strongly suspect the lack of a clear update on dividends was near the top of that list.
OUTLOOK
Given the strength of performance in the year to date, the Board expects to deliver full year adjusted profit before tax (excluding one off items) at the top of the range of market expectations3 and remains confident in the achievement of the long-term financial and operational targets set out at our Capital Markets Strategy Update in May 2023.
3 According to Company-compiled consensus estimates as of 15 January 2024, the current range of market expectations for FY24 adjusted profit before tax is £58.4 million to £62.0 million.
.
Given every store I’ve been in in the last 4 months is busy and the online offerings are improving I expect adjusted profit before tax of £62M and the reinstatement of a small dividend!
CARD are currently on a PE of 6.8
MOON are on a PE of 17.8
We should see a significant movement next week.