Member Info for gulfharbour

We are moving towards EZJ busiest part of the year where they make most of their profits and the half year res are now only a month away.

These next res will not even reflect the bulk of the financial results (profits) from the summer season, so we also have that to look forward to!

I can see this easily achieving £6 prior to next res.

I hope they lose their bl**dy shorts!

I too am just over 60% down on my original SAGA investment and I have to say this is my worst ever investment by miles and miles.

Who the hell decided that Sutherland was a good candidate for CEO ffs, especially after his debacle at Superdry?!

If this company was run properly it should be doing extremely well atm, driven by the purchasing power of the "greys" in each of their key business divisions.

The only things that was stopping me selling out before now were the potential for restart of discussions for sale of the insurance underwriting business now that the insurance markets seem to have strengthened, the apparently promising cruise performance, and the possibility of a sales and leaseback of the cruise ships.

My big concern when the results are announced, other than the high debt and previous poor profitability of the business, is the status of the £150m bond that I seem to recall is due for repayment sometime in May.

If these next res do not show clear improvements on all fronts, it will probably be time for me to bail out and put this one down to (painful) experience.

It's now less than 4 weeks to go until the prelim res are announced on 30th April and I am excited to see the overall results, and particularly how they are improving the online offering.

While the SP is languishing around these levels I have had several small top-ups and am probably now as committed on CARD as I am prepared to go (it's now in my top 4 holdings).

I'm very positive about the short and mid-term prospects for CARD and I expect the SP will be >120p within the next 1-2 months on the way towards my mid-term target of 150p.

This has historically been a very good dividend payer, and as soon as the market gets a whiff of dividend reinstatement this will re-rate.

Good luck all holders!

I will be using SMDS sale proceeds to top up on PHNX, CARD, and possibly some ITV.

I also sold on Wednesday and Thursday because I didn't want IP shares, to lock in the profits, and because I don't see much more upside here.

There are plenty of other shares that look to have significant upside, so I wanted to use the funds from SMDS to move into those without delay.

Mondi only have till 7th April to confirm their offer or walk away, and this afternoons announcement of the higher IP bid has put the proverbial cat among the pigeons.

It will be nice to sit on the sidelines and watch how the Mondi and IP face-off develops.

The ball is now firmly back in Mondi court.

There are only just over 5 weeks to wait till Q4 res.

Bring it on!

The D LG board stated the Ageas offer materially undervalued the company but that was BS. If anything the offer was generous based on these results.

Interesting to see what Areas do next, and how DLG major shareholders react.

Jam tomorrow has been offered, but only crumbs today are on the table.

I fear the market will not take these poor results well at all!

I agree re the need to accelerate reduction of the company debt which is it's biggest issue, and I would be more than happy if they pushed forward with additional asset disposals to pay down debt, especially as land prices increase as inflation and interest rates fall.

The last NAV I recall was around 101p vs an SP of circa 29p underpins the debt, but I would also like the board to consider even a partial sale and leaseback programme which could be beneficial.

My other concern is that the company may have suffered from the recent poor weather and cash-stretched customers although overall I am hopeful of a slow but steady turnaround of the SP, particularly as summer approaches and if we can get a spell of decent weather.

The recent director buy is particularly encouraging and I am mulling over a small top-up at these prices even though I am well under-water with MARS

That's a ballsy call crispiano.

I've chosen to hold until after res so we can see direction of travel for the business, plus get a clear view on whether the DLG board rejection of the offers due to "material undervaluation of the company" (my paraphrasing) has foundation.

Best of luck with your decision.

@fraser in the past 12 months 7.87p dividends have been paid which gives a trailing yield of nearly 9.5%!

Sorry, accidentally posted before finishing...

Option 2 is that you do nothing in which case your shares will automatically convert to the newco shares at the agreed exchange rate at which time you will become a Mondi shareholder

Your options are:

1/that you sell out before the deal is fully finalised, in which case you get the SP at the time you sell,

I definitely believe we will get a div announcement at next res.

Remember that there is the £520m proceeds from the sale of the brokered commercial business that were earmarked to be used for a 10p April div.

And with the apparent broad recovery across the insurance sector, combined with the current low SAGA SP, it would be interesting if that Aussie company renewed interest in the insurance underwriting business!

Bhaveen,

I think you are setting your sights extremely low with those SP targets - my own target by res date is 150p.

Remember that in 2019 (leading into covid year) the SP was around 200p with EPS of 15p, and a 9.3p div and net debt around £140m.

FY23 figures were £463m revenue, PBT $52.4m and EPS of 12.9 and net debt down at £57m

For me the positive drivers should be:

-significantly improving digital and on-line presence including app and click and collect

-wider product range including expansion of the gifts offerings

-expansion of store partnerships

-projected revenue growth to a target of £650m in FY27 (nearly £200m increase from now!)

-expected further reduction in debt

-expected reinstatement of dividend

Regarding the dividend, the BOD have stated they would consider reinstatement in FY2025 (that starts in July 2024!) and I recall them stating these would be at div cover levels of between 2 and 3.

So, based on current 12.9 EPS that could imply a div of 4.3, to 6.5p, which based on current SP would give a yield of 4.7% and 7%.

This is now my 3rd largest holding which I am very comfortable with, and I will continue to add further as funds allow while prices are around this current low level,

Whatever the takeover value might be (assuming it proceeds of course), the deal should take into account the £520m cash received from sale of the brokered insurance business 5 or 6 months ago.

That cash must be sitting on the balance sheet, and if I recall correctly a 10p dividend had been mooted for April.

Me too Oiled.

This share has threatened to break above the 450 barrier a few times over the past 2-3 years but keeps dropping back, and my finger has been hovering over the sell button expecting another retrace into the 420s or low 430s.

I have decided to hold for now pending hopefully good news in the next res, but if good news does not materialise, that is probably my trigger to exit.