Member Info for gulfharbour

This morning RNS stated that the latest Castlelake offer was submitted on 23rd but that further financial information would be provided to them.

Assuming that information was made available either 23rd or 24th, it might take around 3-4 days for it to be reviewed, so including this weekend we should get further update information on Monday.

Although the SP has risen nicely due to the takeover speculation, EZJ is not currently near getting back into the FTSE100 at the current SP of 455.

They would need an SP of circa 530-540p giving an MCAP of just over £4bn to get back in and they have less than 3 weeks to achieve that by the 22nd June when the FTSE constituents are locked in the the next 3 month cycle.

Interestingly Castlelake have until 26th June to make a formal offer or walk away, so if they do decide to make such an offer, it is extremely likely that the FTSE100 entry would be nailed on in my view.

Totally agree Smiler.

Also, and given that the BOD have placed so much emphasis on the growth strategy, I would want to see a breakdown of the separate P&L contributions of Garlanna, SA Greetings, Garven and FP to demonstrate to us mere shareholders that the acquisitions made are genuinely contributing positively to the growth in profitability (not revenue growth!) of the business.

I totally agree about your comments about EZJ being ok mid term Thumper, but sadly I think there is more short term downside to come with the way the Iran conflict is progressing.

I managed to sell about a third of my EZJ holding at start of last week, but obviously with hindsight wish I had sold much more, as I'm sure many on here do also.

When the conflict eventually ends I expect EZJ should pick up very quickly, and I'm glad that I have a chunk of cash ready to buy back at that time.

I don't agree connexion.

This is still yielding around 7.5% which is a very good divi level, and combined with the new share buyback this feels quite a good position.

I am expecting a housing sector recovery this year barring any prolonged Iran conflict escalation (which none of us can predict) , and these results are a good start point from my pov.

ATB Christopher.

Hopefully onwards and upwards!

As stated by various people today this seems to be a steadying update following last month profit warning.

The market obviously wasn't expecting much (good or bad) so there has been only a small movement downwards in sp giving back some of the steady small gains over the past week leading up to the update.

One thing I badly want to see In the next results is a breakdown of the financial performance of the main parts of the business and most particularly the Garlanna, Garven, SA Greetings and FP acquisitions.

Given that the BOD expansion strategy has been so strongly weighted towards growth via acquisition, I believe it is vital that they break down the performance of those individual parts to demonstrate the success, or otherwise, of those acquisitions.

If they do not provide that breakdown and continue only providing consolidated results, then the shareholders i.e. the owners of the business, have no way of judging whether those acquisitions are part of the solution, or part of the problem!

I must say I'm relieved, and a bit surprised too, that this didn't drop at least a few % after the update.

The market was clearly expecting the drop and had priced it in, hence the relative resilience of the sp.

Given the forward looking statements and the LFL performance I will hold for now, and if the sp drops below 170 in the next week or so I will probably add a few more.

Probably not because I would expect Trump to only invite US oil companies like Exxon, Chevron etc.

Yes I agree it is a bit worrying that shorts are at such a high level Bermondsey, presumably at least in part due to concerns over the high levels of capex during a period of low consumer confidence.

On the other side of the coin the capex programme has apparently peaked in 2025 at circa £300m, and the next 2 years capex are projected to reduce to circa £200m in 2026 and £100m in 2027 which admittedly are still large numbers.

The market today seems to have taken the side of the analysis in JPM earlier upgrade so who knows, but a good indicator of who is rights will come on the 8th.

Rich,

GRG are "only" announcing their Q4 trading update on 8th Jan, and we will have to wait till 3rd March for the FY prelim results to be released.

Still, I'm expecting the t/u to be broadly positive which could be a catalyst for further upgrades, and squeezing of open short positions.

GLA holders on Thursday!

Billy,

You're definitely a glass half full type of guy!

Much though I'd love to see those type of numbers pre and post update, your pre update figures are a further increase of around 5%, then the post update figures being over 20% increase from now which I don't believe are realistic.

I can see some continued gradual movement upwards towards the update, but even if we have a good update I can't see the SP moving more than 5%.

I'd love to be wrong though!

Trading update is scheduled for 8th Jan

Text from JP Morgan broker note as below:

J.P. Morgan initiated coverage of Greggs PLC with an "overweight" rating and a price target of 2,110 pence in early December 2025. This action is considered an upgrade from having no prior rating. The investment bank views Greggs as a "structural winner" with strong growth potential.

Rationale for the Rating

J.P. Morgan's positive outlook is based on several key factors:

Strong Unit Economics: The bank's analysis highlighted "top-class unit economics" for Greggs, including high gross profit per square foot compared to competitors.

Asymmetric Risk-Reward: Greggs shares were trading on "trough valuation multiples" and approaching the bottom of their earnings cycle, presenting a more favorable potential for gains than losses.

Growth Catalysts: The bank identified several potential drivers for a share re-rating, including stronger-than-expected like-for-like sales and earnings from fiscal year 2026 onwards, an "inflection in free cash flow," and potential future capital returns.

Operational Strength: The company's vertically integrated bakery and food-to-go model supports strong margins and resilience against inflationary pressures.

Expansion Plans: Management's plan to grow from around 2,600 stores to 3,000 by 2030, supported by new distribution centers, is expected to unlock further growth.

J.P. Morgan's bull case scenario indicates an potential upside of up to 55% for the shares. The news led to a notable jump in Greggs' share price following the announcement in December 2025.

You need to get around a bit more Oogle. Most of the Greggs around me, plus the ones I visit in London seem to be full of mainly working people buying snacks, drinks, sausage rolls etc during the day.

I genuinely haven't seen a quiet one in the past year that I've been looking!

I've also got a few of those income stocks Paul.

I was considering UKW but am currently deterred by the large debt burden, and the risks to revenue of further low wind events/seasons.

Agree with you.

Although the new Infrastructure and Planning bill will help remove red tape to streamline the approvals process, it will take quite a few months before any improvements flow through

Any potential takeover would presumably be at a level higher than NAV which is currently reported as over £4b which equates to around 117p per share.

Although I would love a takeover or other news that would reverse the SP slide, who would have the scale to take over TW even at current low SP?

I really can't see it happening, and the best we can probably expect is for a gradual improvement in sp as business confidence and conditions improve, driven by lower inflation, interest rates and mortgage costs.

Good news in this morning rns about agreement to divest the East African interests for $2.3b.

Given that Dave Lewis is only a couple of weeks away from taking the CEO reins it's inconceivable that he hasn't given his approval for this sale, and this may well indicate the path that he will take with DGE to get rid of a lot of (what he sees as) peripheral interests.

With a multinational company such as DGE with wide ranging interests in so many countries there must be very large scope for divestment and streamlining of the business, possibly including sale of their IPL franchise RCB which could fetch around $1b.

Hopefully positive times ahead for DGE after a tough 3-4 years.

Sorry to see you go Bhaveen, and totally understand and agree your feelings toward the management of the company and particularly the loss of trust.

I had previously planned to make a decision about my CARD investment after the Jan update, so I will wait till after that event before deciding.

The best scenario would be that the BOD "kitchen-sinked" all the bad news into that last RNS, and that trading over the christmas period at least meets, or preferably beats the updated forecasts.

Any further bad news, or a miss on the reduced forecasts, will surely be terminal for CEO and CFO who I expect to be under a lot of scrutiny now from II's.