Member Info for gulfharbour

Having watched the SP drop over the past month or 2 I have bought another tranche this morning.

I simply can't believe we are down at 79p, but the market obviously expects CARD to struggle along with the rest of the retail sector that has been hit by the double whammy of increased minimum wage, plus the higher employer NI contributions.

Unlike other parts of the retail sector and despite what the BOD seem to think, CARD, being a vertically integrated company, in my opinion have the have the ability to slightly increase prices to recoup some or all of the labour cost increases, while still retaining their position as cost leader in UK cards and gifting.

I agree with other posters that the BOD has not covered itself in glory by firstly not preparing the market for the average results announced last time round, and then missing their own target date for an update on the US expansion (which could be a game changer).

Despite those points I remain bullish about CARD which is why I bought more this morning after re-evaluating the fundamentals of the company as put forward by LWHL earlier.

Despite all the doom and gloom, CARD have an enviable position in the UK market, are very profitable and expanding, and have paid off most of the debt that was on the balance sheet from Covid and before.

Another positive factor that has not apparently been factored in is the objective of Brett Blundy who took a significant stake in CARD only a matter of months ago, so I await with interest to see what that influence brings.

Meanwhile we are at the start of the Christmas season which is CARD's most profitable period and by all accounts most of the shops appear to be busy and presumably doing very well (my 2 local stores are anyway).

Roll on the Jan update!

IAG res today bode well for EZJ res on 27th!

Savage, you are just a pi55 taker, changing your tune to match whatever your trading strategy of any given day, and even if that means contradicting yourself.

Don't bother replying cos I won't see your reply, because you are binned!

You might want to recheck your NHS employment numbers Edward75.

About half your posts across all shares seem to have a "SELL" title.

This latest post is just a cut and paste of exactly the same post you made earlier this morning on the CARD board so looking at that fact, plus your posting history you are obviously a day-trader or a wind up merchant.

Either way you are binned!

Agreed that the answers on those points were woolly.

TBH I thought the FD responses were quite underwhelming although Darcy seemed to come across quite well (it was first time I'd seen him speak and I liked him)

There was so much missing detail that could have been given such as the expected revenue arising from new partnerships, who is the USA retail partner and how many USA stores etc, but details sadly lacking.

I'm hoping that the lack of USA details is just that the deal is agreed in principle but with some final details to be ironed out, but it was mentioned an update (trading statement?) would be available in around 6 weeks.

I missed the first 15 mins of the presentation but my main takeaway points from the rest were:

-poor response from FD to question about how much of the headline revenue increase was down to price inflation, and how much was volume increase, so this is unclear

-expected positive impact from the new partnerships (primarily ALDI and USA) has been included in forward looking company projections for H2

-several questions about possible price increases to offset inflation were meet with responses that a) CARD have a continuous process of monitoring price competitiveness in the market (competitor benchmarking) and adjusting as necessary, and b) it was stressed twice by Darcy that CARD objective is to be the most price competitive (my words) card provider in the UK market

-52% of CARD customers now buy both cards and gifts in the same basket

-7.5% increase in average basket size (not sure if this was against comparable H1 last year, or against previous FY)

-reiteration that FY guidance is maintained at previously stated projections (this must mean a fair bit of catchup in H2, although this is their biggest sales period anyway

-the FD stated future buybacks could be considered but only within the existing disciplined financial frameworks

I partly agree Bhaveen, however I believe the main issue is that there were no company comms of any sort to guide the scale of the cost increases and profit drop.

That is a really bad company IR performance and although in the mid term I am still a holder and I still believe the CARD journey has huge potential, boy do the management need to learn about IR comms!

In my view if the SP can stabilise and hold in the 120-130 range this week that would be a good result.

Slightly disappointing set of results which I don't see the market appreciating.

That's was definitely a jam tomorrow the with the announcement of new partnerships including USA, and acquisition of the Irish business.

In the meantime, costs are up (mainly wages), debt up (how much was spent on the acquisition?),profit down.

The interim divi reinstatement is very welcome but maybe at a slightly lower level than I had hoped, and I can't see that being enough to prevent a drop in sp at opening.

Most other airlines also up which suggests some positive macro issue.

IAG up 3.2%, WIZZ 8.4%, JET2 a bit of a laggard with only .78%, Ryanair level ish on the day.

I respect your decision LWHL.

Compared to some of the other boards it is refreshing to have someone such as you that presents a pragmatic and balanced view rather than being a ramper or basher of the share in question.

I have previously sold a couple of tranches to lock in some profit but am continuing to hold about 70% of my original holding in the expectation of further SP rises based on a couple of things.

Firstly I don't believe the investment by Blundy has been understood or fully factored in. He has not invested in CF for the hell of it so I am fascinated to see how that investment ties in to CF future.

Secondly I hope/expect the next results in a couple of weeks should contain a number of positive factors including revenue and profit growth, further reduction (or elimination?) of the relatively small remaining debt, and reinstatement of the interim divi.

Who knows, if CF has done particularly well they might even consider either a small buyback or special divi which they have a track record of doing because CF has a history of generating a lot of cash, and distributing much of that to shareholders.

I could be wrong, and the results could disappoint, but I believe the mid term future is sound even in markets which are financially challenging.

Agreed Xhita, and we are in the middle of EZJ busiest and most lucrative part of the year with only 3 months before H2 results are announced on 28/11.

Before then we can look forward to the October trading update which is 1 month before the official results announcement, and I expect the SP to steadily edge upwards as we approach those 2 events.

Its interesting the influence O'Leary statements have on the airline sector, but surely he is starting to get a name for being a loud-mouth who speaks before engaging brain based on some of his recent comments (then backtracks) on seat pricing pressure.

Also good to see some broker comments that differentiate between Ryanair as a low cost airline with its price pressures, vs EZJ and IAG which are both seen with better pricing/margin than RYA.

Meanwhile with every day that passes EZJ tills are ringing and the holiday part of the business continues to grow...

The interim dividend has not yet been reinstated however I expect this reinstatement at a level of around 1.5p to 2p will be announced in the next results being announced 26/9.

Assuming the reinstatement actually takes place, and based on past performance, that interim would be paid in December.

Glowacki,

I don't believe it is strange that no trading update has been given because CARD don't appear to automatically issue that type of update each year.

It is true that there was a trading update on 7th August last year and another on 16th Jan this year, however both those updates seem to have been issued because CARD was trading either ahead of previously advised expectations, or at the top end of those projected figures.

I guess there could still be time for an update to be issued before the next res, but I don't necessarily expect one unless the board feels they need to advise the market that we are once again trading ahead of expectations.

If an update was to be issued I would be very happy because it would almost certainly be positive imho.

I have no lack of confidence in CARD but just sold another small tranche at 131p to lock in profits, while still keeping 75% of my original holding.

The recent rises have been slow and steady heading towards next months Q2 results announcement which I expect to be very solid and which I am confident will include reinstatement of the interim div at a level of around 2p making circa 6.5p annualised (5% yield at current SP).

The removal of that Teleios overhang last month has certainly taken the brakes off the SP, although there is still no further information on the intentions of our new Aussie retail magnate shareholder.

I just can't believe that with his range of other retail holdings he hasn't got the short to mid-term intention of facilitating some sort of collaboration between CARD and some his other holdings.

Interesting and exciting times!

Accipter, that just shows the 4.5p dividend paid end last month which was the reinstated final divi for last FY.

There historically has also been a November interim divi which has not yet been officially reinstated although it is almost certain that will happen when next res are announced end September, but I agree with Wiscos that I don't expect that interim divi to be much more than 1.5p-2p giving a likely combined annualised divi of 6p-6.5p.

Its obviously your decision Mrmarkyw, but you could also consider selling a part of your holding to lock in some profits while letting the rest ride, which is something I have done here and in a couple of other shares recently.

For me this is still a hold because I agree with previous posters that there is still plenty of mileage left in CARD, and I personally have an SP target of 150p+.

I am also fascinated to know what Blundy intentions are, because he hasn't just taken 8% of the share capital for the heck of it.

Nice steady upwards price movement over the past few weeks.

Did anyone attend the June AGM, and if so, was there any mention of timetable for announcement of results of the BCPT business review whereby the BOD were investigating options for the business to address the low SP and disparity to NAV?

Thanks for that heads up meoryou!

Thanks meoryou, thats a great presentation.

Its nice to get a clearly set out and well explained presentation of results, which is way better than most other company presentations I have seen in the recent past!