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Agreed Bhaveen, but everyone has different perspective and objectives, so I wouldn't worry too much about there being willing sellers of what appears to most LTH's to be a rock solid investment to hold for income and growth.
If someone has bought in the low 90's only a couple of weeks ago, then sold at around 111 yesterday, they will think (rightly) that they have done well.
The difference is that they will now move on to their next short term investment, will LTHs' sit it out for what we believe to be the real prize which will only become fully apparent in 6-12 months from now.
Meantime, I'm happy to enjoy the inevitable slow but steady ride upwards as this company continues to develop and grow, and I also look forward to receiving a nice chunky dividend in June, plus the promise of reinstatement of interims which would normally be payable around December.
I would love to get into the mind of a seller on this… you’ve got something about to pay you over 4 percent yield (for some more depending on buy price) and you’ve got a great foundation, increased online and the company have already said they are on track for growth this year with record mothers days sales so a great chance of share price appreciation… so why sell now? At least get the divi and H1 trading out of the way …. I just don’t get it
Just now it went from 107.65 straight to 109, yet barely any trades, under 20,000 shares. How's that work? II's building?
Oh man on the face of its great value still and I’m ready to. It more… but with this one you just don’t know what will happen now results have been digested… we’ve never fared well after results … let’s see what today brings!
If Teleios did sell into these results, how long before they'd have to issue a filing on that?
Id allow a bit more time than that for the trade to have cleared ... Also you have to factor in a potential rise in share price on the run up to ex divi day may well cost you more than the divi you receive. You may earn more buying now hoping for a nice rise and selling prior to ex divi day. Thats the gamble you can also take. So If you thinks its good value now then buy now, dont wait.
Got it, so you can buy now and get the divi, however the likelihood of it dropping by the same amount of the divi then just counteracts it. So counter entutive, however the prospect of long term hold then makes it much more viable.?
Thanks Neil, appreciated
Buy the shares before the 30 May (day before the ex dividend date) and the divi is all yours.
However, be prepared that the price will probably drop by at least the amount of the dividend on the 31st May, so buying your first tranche purely for the dividend is likely to to end in dissapointment.
And, with the market cap being closer yet to FTSE 350 territory the passive funds will need to take notice. This could easily push the sp up 10 - 20p.
Not quite, but I think we all know what you mean. The 4.5p is the dividend for the whole of FY24 so is about 4% currently. The interim will be included as part of the div for FY25 so hopefully will be 2 - 2.5p payable late 2024 with a final div payable about next June (2025). Hopefully about 4p so total of 6 - 6.5p for FY25. Maybe a bit more. If company is growing and still paying a 4 - 6% div yield then there is ample room for share price being 150p plus. Happy days!
Evening guys. I’m mainly just a gambler, though I know a good company when I see one, and gets the basics, also from Shaky Wakey! Originally bought at 40p, sold, and got back in at 91p about a month ago.
Could someone explain to me as a dummy on this….but how do dividends work in terms of, do you have to had the shares for a certain amount of time before eligible etc?
Or can anyone just jump on now, buy, and be eligible?
Very happy with CARD 2024 Results and the 4.5p dividend is the Icing on the cake !
Given trading continues to be good we should be looking at an interim dividend later in the year which should result in a 5-6% dividend yield.
Add in further CARD share appreciation and this is an Investment “NoBrainer”
Send CARDS to everyone you Know !
Bye Bye MOON
BUY BUY CARD !
Found Stockopedia much better than IC which went really downhill around time of covid lockdowns, with it developing a political agenda publishing bizarre articles for an investment magazine such as why the BBC should be publically funded, recommending speculative hydrogen companies near their highs and how BP and Shell were outright sells even near their lows due to net zero, no future need for oil and stranded assets. Became very patronising to subscribers as well describing segments as Education.
Paul Scott on it reckons good value , possibly worth 130 to 150p. Added small amount today as with the resumption of dividends, hopefully erratic shareprice movements are in the past.
And this time last year;
"Investec analysts argued that the company “has recovered well from Covid with its strategic initiatives delivering better profitability”. As the board works towards targets of annual revenues of £650mn and a pre-tax profit margin of 14 per cent in financial year 2027, we think that is accurate. The shares trade at a consensus 10 times forward earnings, according to FactSet, slightly above the 5-year average of 9 times. Hold."
And of course that 5 year period included Covid...
@bhaveen, the IC are an absolute joke.
Here's the conclusion to their last piece on 26/09;
"The lowly forward rating of eight times consensus earnings reflects the question marks hanging over the business despite the respectable interim outturn. Hold."
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/09/26/card-factory-faces-challenging-christmas-as-online-sales-fall
And then todays contradiction;
"But the lowly rating of seven times forward consensus earnings prices in the opportunity. Hold. "
Turns out they nailed Christmas, reinstated a 5% dividend, derated from 8x to 7x and are still a hold. Embarrassing doesn't come close to describing the output of that magazine.
Peel Hunt are still calling it a Hold … not a Buy… what does card have to do to get brokers on board… what a joke
Just read this on Investors chronicle
But the lowly rating of seven times forward consensus earnings prices in the opportunity. Hold.
How on earth is p/e if 7 pricing the opportunity in? Who writes such nonsense is the reason I’m sticks are so undervalued
Yep. Or 140p, if one were to hopefully be a little on the conservative side.
Not that I am going to start counting chickens....surefire way to seeing the little blighters catch bird flu, and there goes the profit :)
Adjusted EPS of13.5% with close to 100% cash conversion implies a free cash flow yield of 12.2%. Can easily see this repricing to 8-10% or 135p-168.75p with 150p mid point.
It was the level of debt reduction, combined with the strong performance in this challenging climate, which caught my attention. The dividend return was only the icing on the cake, as far as I was concerned.
Anyway, took another couple of small tranches in the 107p range, in case it does not remain range-bound for much longer. Not adding more meaningful amounts until I do that research, but not going to get the chance during trading hours.
If it does not pull back, then so be it. That would be fine by me :) GLA.
Heading off here soon, lots of profit taking PI's are going to miss the boat because they can't wait 5 minutes...
Oh and @bhaveen, a little thing called inflation has been impacting operating costs of almost every company in the world... plus the interest on their debt & store leases is clearly substantially higher than in 2014-2019.
Nevertheless, the 14% PBT margin achieved in H2 is superb, combined with the debt reduction & dividend reinstatement it should be easily enough to justify a PE of 12x and a share price north of 150p.
Based on the below the margin has seen a bit of a tumble since 2018… I can’t recall what the driver was… but maybe this is one of the reasons we aren’t seeing that growth we wanted
Todays great results have not been reflected in the relatively modest 6% SP increase achieved to date but I fully expect this to continue to gradually increase in coming weeks as people get on the bandwagon.
CARD has loads of potential to significantly increase dividends over the next 6 to 12 months and it is worth comparing todays results with those back in 2018.
The figures below show how much scope there is for improvements to financial returns to shareholders especially when looking at debt, and div cover, plus the previous propensity to award shareholders with annual specials!
2018 2024
Revenue £422.1m £510.9m
EBITDA £86.1m £122.6m
PBT £72.6m £65.6m
EPS 17.1 14.4
DPS 9.3 4.5
Div cover 2.03 3.2
Special div 15 0
Net Debt £161.3m £34.4
Anybody got it please
So in summary card is
A market leader
Growing double digits revs
Introducing solid divs
Reducing debt
Expanding selectively globally with a purpose
Strong brand loyalty customer engagement
Supply chain presence (need more supply chain ownership in party celebrations. Todays teddies etc)
This is one you can call a lifetime hold no matter what games are played and the divi will put a real back stop behind wobbly knees I think