Member Info for Bhaveen

I’m surprised they didn’t say upper or lower end of expectations as they would know by now….but at least they hit that band….good luck everyone (my dads still in hence I keep an eye!)

Sad to see where this is.... but what reaction to expect bearing in mind the company has done nothing post the profit warning or the share price decline...it may not be an appropriate comparison but reflecting on Everyman Cinema where the CEO left after a profit warning and share price decline they took responsibility....someone with a priority on shareholder value and digital experience to balance up whatever the management are doing. Still don't buy the weak market ...they've messed up somewhere.

Cheers Gulf…like you I had been planning to make a choice post jan…I had 1.20/1.30 in my mind…and even then I thought I’d be leaving money on the table I felt. We’ve all got our own portfolios to manage and thankfully I’ve done well on IAG and some Nasdaq firms to keep all in balance. I did think 55mn is worst case …I’m just concerned they are either misleading us or kidding themselves when they solely blame the economy when others firms are buoyant …and I worry about inventories and margin erosion….FP is a great addition but will they manage it properly and market it ….and I think I’m being nieve here but this buyback they should not be keeping them for bonus allotment….no one should be getting any shares until they exceed last year …they should have announced to cancel those shares and help prop up EPS…at least send a signal to the market that they understand the share price decimation. I’ll stop my ranting now….

Had to exit today…sadly I like the business and the proposition but the management is extremely poor. Anyone can bang on about a hostile unfriendly government and I agree it is…but that why senior teams are paid so much …to deal with headwinds. T CFO has presided over a business that has lost half of its value…not because of illogical results but becuase a lack of understanding and/or care for shareholder growth. We finally got to 1.10 plus this year and what do they do? Pull forward an EPOS project that got blamed for year on year decline…then back to mid 90s now this…no public company worth its salt would have kept the same team in place. I’ve definitely not exited at a fair valuation but I’m concerned about the upcoming months and I think there’s more chance of stagnating in the early a 70s …I think there’s growth elsewhere in the market. Boards been great and sad to read about regular posters exiting…wish you all good luck and have a merry Xmas. And for what it’s worth my local was rammed today …on a Monday at 11am…

I think they ethically had to tell the market about the issues otherwise people would have reinvested dividends thinking everything is fine…at least this way people could make an informed choice. P/E ratio in my opinion is a sign of growth…as we are going backwards the low p/e is justifiable. Silver lining is if our demographic started shopping late…with mpig and j Lewis being more of an affluent shopper they may have had less pressure re disposable income etc

Yes completely agree around marketing the business correctly as opposed to acquisitions. I did pop into my CF today to see if could see the 50% off offer and could on big boxes of cards …I’m also getting a lot of emails from FP with deals.

Yes let’s hope IIs are saying something…i understand the CFO was brought on board by Darcy as they had worked together …feels like an old boys club mentality. Has anyone looked at the dividend potential based on their loans and capital allocation rules in detail? May give it a go later…thought I’d much rather them spend 15 mn on a share buy back at this price.

I think with Mpig and J Lewis talking about strong performance already with Xmas this is a CF issue. Sadly I’m at a place where I get the huge dip and the downgrade…. A board that hands out shares as bonuses when the share price is declining, acquisitions that may add revenue but no shareholder value and add more debt, the FP one makes sense but this came after spending millions on their own website, and can we even trust their £5m a year savings projections??? I question the dividend amount being stuck to (bear in mind their statement was around sticking to capital allocations rules…and with more debt at the end of the year with the allocations rules be met? I’m p***** off becuase I’ve worked for CFOs where they know their employer is the shareholder and they do what they can to protect us….these lot seem in it for themselves. He needs to make decisions based on share price not some random colleges wanting some random business/project elsewhere. I would hope for an aggressive buyback programme IF they can afford it to drive up EPS…as I can’t see anything else making an impact on the share price. The band of 55mn to 60mn would have to be their honest opinion..if they actually suspected above 60mn but didn’t say it i daresay that would be seen as market manipulation considering they are buying shares back. I would assume 60mn is based on then hitting targets in the next 7 weeks….55mn seems more likely now as if the product range hasn’t resonated in the earlier weeks I don’t see how it would now. Add to this they’ve cut profits by circa 20% …the majority of which will occur in the two weeks ahead as post 26th the business will naturally slow down and have smaller targets…it’s so poor having worked in a retail finance environment…it just exposes more weakness. I think we’d be lucky to hit 80p again if we can scrape the 60mn. We used to have a performing business with a questionable management…now an underperforming business with what seems like an incompetent management. Sadly any changing heads could signal more weakness and is doubtful considering we’ve gone from 1.40 to mid 90s and nothing has happened…we are now at 70p…half the value gone ….I sincerely hope the CFO gets his s*** together and starts to spend wisely. Sorry for the rant…I’m p***** as an investor and as someone who works in this arena. The share price is not indicative of the numbers it’s indicative of the management and their choices. Would love to here any positivity/if I’m being too negative….only hope I have is hitting 60mn if our customers are turning up late…but even that is a s*** show number from the indicative £70 plus we had been looking for.

The 3 for 2 (on cards and gifts) is quite normal…the 50% off sounds like something they do after Xmas itself …to be honest I’m glad they are doing what they can do boost sales and absolute profit in overall numerical terms. Didn’t see that offer in my local but may have missed it…they did have 3 for 2 on boxed cards though

The Moonpig CEO had also said xmas is busy…when I spoke to the staff member at my store they said they have been snowed…so I a bit lost with what’s happened…think the SP has reacted this way due to lack of confidence in management as opposed to the actually end numbers.

Went to two of my local CFs today…one heaving …non stop…other (not as good as location) a steady stream…lots of offers and what not…let’s hope our shoppers are turning up to the party now.

The business had said they expect to make savings of £5m per year …not sure if that’s from year one or some kind of average day across a 10 year business case. Regardless if they can achieve this the payback itself in years is small and makes the acquisition attractive…and then add on whatever profit they make. I don’t think the purchase was purely based on FP stand alone profit …more about the savings.

I thought this also but having looked at B and M their dividend yield is higher and that share price looks to be stuck. Not being pessimistic but just trying to be objective.

Https://www.pgbuzz.net/christmas-card-sending-robust/

I don’t follow B and M but looking at their market cap vs earnings I hope we don’t get stuck in that circle.

The optimism on my part comes from how they have forecasted the rest of the month…if e.g November was 10% down on sales have they projected that through the rest of December…knowing November was hideous due to budget worries…will the rest of December now pick up…and is consumer Xmas spending pushed back as it can be….and their warning was just being cautious…whatever it is a market cap of 235mn for a PBT of 55mn doesn’t make sense …

Yep I agree…if any good comes out of it the CFO will be replaced with someone who can grow shareholder value.

I agree the payout is low…..my point was that they are now set to make potentially 15mn less in H2 than previous thought…so will they need to rethink how they allocate cash? It’s a s*** show in my opinion…and sorry I know the economy is weak but somethings not right here if mpig are confident about xmas.

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1084334/card-factory-downgraded-after-earnings-alarm-is-sounded-1084334.html

Says dividends are still expected though not sure how they can say that if we are expecting a little less Cash/profit

Has anyone tried to get in touch with investor relations? Maybe at this price it will get taken over by someone who knows what they are doing….it’s all good saying Darcy and Co have navigated tough waters but that’s BS now.

My lord that downgrade from 1.60 to 80p looks very harsh…didn’t expect that! Let’s see what other days but I seriously hope heads roll…it clearly is a Card issue if mpig is posting strong updates. Very dissatisfied.

The drop does look like an over reaction but we’ve had a surprise in H1 last year and then again another one this year re profit…don’t think the drop and even the mid 90s price fairly reflects the profitability…but management are clearly not trusted….so doubt we will ever see “fair value”… think it’s a buying opportunity for some…and let’s hope we hit the high range of the profit number touted…and like many posters, hope they start focusing on shareholder value…would hope they have no major capex now or acquisitions ….but of course some debt to pay off…it’s really not enough from management and hope they make some changes.