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Im with you on the notion that some online growth would helpā¦ and am excited by the lower debtā¦ especially the fact that dividend restraints will go. Iām just concerned about profitability and canāt see any information (unless Iāve missed it) about margin recovery ā¦ though appreciate a nice step change in revenue will help absolute profitability hit back to 2018 levels but we are talking circa 550mn I think.
I do hope the dividend is restored but at the same time perhaps they wish to utilise that cash with acquisitions to achieve their revenue ambitions.
Did see two very large trades this morning coming to a total of 1.1mn but system doesnāt say if it was a big or sellā¦.
Either way Iām 100 percent positive that the share price will be higher then where we are now come the time leading up to resultsā¦ wish I had more money to invest but its all tied up elsewhere.
Also the new financial year started for card in Februaryā¦ so come April at results time I would hope we know what they plan to do with the profits now that debt levels are very low
Well the business would have a five year plan with top level goalsā¦ im not sure if theyāve shared their business ambitions ā¦ I havenāt looked at it deeply yet ā¦ itās on my list of things to doā¦. Iām just holding because I see many more positives then negatives ā¦ and I have to give some credit to management with the recent resultsā¦ though the future will depend on how they invest their money and what the next two quarters look like results wise as i also think the market wants some consistency before signals of confidence are truly embedded. What I do believe is that demand will stay robust and that itself should make it easier for airlines to show decent numbers
Yes if I checked the numbers and did some simple projectons I would have noted IAG was a much longer play and I wouldnāt have invested ā¦ as I didnāt want that long a time frame. Sadly my thinking was more about market sentiment and comparing covid to other stock market crashes when Actually it was quite different. But I donāt think I was the only one. Are you saying you analysed debt levels, profitability sill made the investment yet you see frustrated and surprised with the current lack of upwards share price movement?
Hey fordm
So for the sake of disclosure Iām about 30% down on IAG at the moment and like you Iām very annoyed with the notion of missing out on other stock ā¦ especially as I was given advice by more experienced investors to look at the numbers in more detail. Knowing what I know now about the debt I wouldnāt have invested as my plans were to hold for three yearsā¦ I started in 2020. Iāve made good returns elsewhere because of investing in lower debt recovery stocks and also some AI and tech related stocks. I donāt think the boat has been missed on other stocks ā¦ personally believe thereās still lots of room for growth in blue chips stocks like Microsoft, Google and amazon which havenāt seen the AI thrust just yet ā¦ even Nvidia which for some may seem like a high I think there is room to grow. On the more conventional side youāve got card factoryā¦ low debt levels, history of dividend, likely reinstatement of dividends due to certain loans being extinguished as of jan 2024 and a positive revenue story ā¦ so opportunity is out there.
Re my short term comment I was more thinking āfrom nowāā¦ so my language could have been better. But I basically mean short term as in the 3 to 6 months from nowā¦ medium 6 months to 18months from now and long term thereafter.
Not worried about the drop year on year ā¦ itās expected as there was a lack of info around performanceā¦ we have great evidence of IAG (and the sector as a whole) being very bouyant. Plus Iāve been there with EasyJet and seen how theyāve recovered (to an extent ā¦ they still have to room I think).
If you got a year to play with, depending on your percentage loss, thereās good reason to stick around. Personally Iām out at 1.75 as I canāt wait two years ā¦ I think 1.75 by 6 months is more than achievable and then Iām out
I think thatās the first raise with many more to comeā¦ analysts look at medium to long termā¦ whereas I think many of us are overly concerned with the short term. Personally think the short increase is just playing on market sentiment ā¦.with so many retail investors who are short term orientated and scared easliy itās quite a logical move to make (in the short term). Market fundamentals are positive, IAG have shown then can capitalise on this so the future is very positiveā¦ itās painful but within a year it will be a different share price story
Why oh why anyone would invest in this share unless they have a minimum two year view is beyond meā¦ there are so many other companies out there with a positive trajectory, less debt and positive market sentiment. And I understand the frustration about management but at the same time they have delivered record profit ā¦ they just have a mountain of debt to deal with that was caused by something out of their hands. Iām out at Ā£1.75 and will accept my loss as a lesson ā¦.
Im in IAG and thereās lot of commotion todayā¦ but itās the same dynamic with CCL ā¦ records revenues and customer and positive trajectory ā¦ but lots of debt and dividend nowhere to be seen. Iām in bothā¦ so Iām either crazy or stupid ā¦
They could have just said ātoo much debtā but I guess that wouldnāt have been much of an article. I donāt buy into this supply issue as a problemā¦. If demand outstrips supply then happy days ā¦ itās a much better problem then the other way around. The whole AI industry is strained by supply but the fact that demand outstrips it helps share price growth
Like many I wish I never bought in ā¦. Completely under-estimated the debt issue (was new to investing at the time)ā¦. But Iām surprised so many people expected a jump today ā¦ do think there is space to grow from Ā£1.50 but it wonāt be an impactful change till we reach debt levels pe-covidā¦which could be three years away at this rate. Think the CFOs hands are tied in terms of dividend until debt comes down more. Really canāt blame people for jumping ship
Was just windering if we would ever see the +Ā£1.60 in share price that we had seen in 2020 and Iām struggling to see how we would get thereā¦ even now our debt is at a very low level, we have cash in the bank and dividends should be forthcoming. All I can think of now is the decline in profitability ā¦ each year from 2016 we have had revenue growth (except covid closure time periods) but every year less profit ā¦ I think we are looking at mid 50s millions for FY24 but thatās still around 8 to 9m short of 2020 even though revenue will be higher ā¦ i would hope 1.15 come next qtly results and maybe 1.30 if we get a dividend but without profitability at a decent level like previous years I think we are stuckā¦ would love to be corrected!
Yes but RR had a debt of 1.9bn and and operating profit of 1.7bnā¦. Iag is much differentā¦. But if you are a long term holder all will work outā¦. I would hope within 6 months we see 1.80ā¦ within a year 2.20ā¦. Just because I think our debt ratios will be much more solid and dividend restoredā¦ thereās only so long they can go without rewarding shareholders
I was focusing on net debtā¦ which I think was around the 10.4b markā¦ regardless all the debt doesnāt have to be paidā¦ we just need to ge back to 2019 levels which was around 7.6 net debt if I remember correctlyā¦ With the EBITDA/debt ratio of 1.2 vs the 1.7 nowā¦. And dividends were paid back then ā¦. Sadly another year I think before dividends will be reinstated as they probably want to get debt down first
Not sure what the share price transaction is but no reason why we can hit the 11 plus regions in terms of P/E ratio bearing in mind other bricks and mortar retailer achieve this and beyond ā¦ moon pig is around 17 P/E ratio but itās high due to being tech and leveraging AIā¦ youād hope we hit the 1.20 mark cine April results but I think this will be dependent on how they decide to spend their profits now that tranche A and the covid loan has been cleared ā¦ I saw a funky pigeon ad today for Motherās Dayā¦ I honestly donāt understand why cars donāt hire some online expertise and drive their digital proposition and advertise.
I donāt think a share buy back will guarantee to make a differenceā¦ greencore just completed theirs and no share price change. A dividend would definitely help ā¦ investors have plenty of choice now with companies who are showing capital growth and dividends so why put money in cars which had no dividends. Finally online growthā¦ they harp on digital transformation but itās clearly not translating into performance ā¦ I hope when they have less debt they will start to advertise their online offeringā¦āI doubt the mass market even knows they do personalised cards that are competitive with Moonpig.
Itās not a school boy errorā¦ the role of the CFO and the board includes protecting and increasing shareholder value ā¦ I think divi detail was omitted on purpose simply because they have no new news other than what they have shared before which is that a divi will only be considered as early as FY25ā¦ we may have to wait to half year of FY25 to get any newsā¦. Itās incredibly frustrating