Member Info for Zanab

Fleecy, it's more likely that escorts are given, and the US says: you touch our ships; we take your oil island.

Honest question, why do you think they've left it alone but bombed everything else?

The US navy isn't in the strait, is it?

Primetime, there was a report about shadow fleet vessels that explicitly said they can see ships passing and that there are likely many more: https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156563/Shadow-fleet-dominates-Hormuz-crossings-as-Iran-ramps-up-bypass-loadings

Also, Stanley beat me to the new Sky interview ;)

The double-speak is everywhere, but 'the pressure' comment relating to the strait closure, the fact ships have been passing through anyway and now Iran are saying many ships can pass if they communicate with them may be signs that they want to use this as a backdoor for talks with the US as ships would almost certainly be in contact with both in this scenario . Interesting...

Not sure about that , but you can bet that most factories hedged aggressively, if they haven't already on the dip. I don't think it will be sustained, but let's see.

Freight isn't that high at all ATM, nothing like the commodity volatility for good reasons. Not sure freight costs are going to be a long-term problem at all.

Interest rates are unlikely to rise significantly, if at all, this isn't the post code boom. The global economy was slowing anyway, especially China.

There's credible reports that Iran is still letting out over 1mln barrels a day through shadow fleet ships.

Germany has introduced price controls, Greece is too and imposing profit caps. Italy is talking about heavier taxation to claw back price gauging.

As long as companies don't get greedy, they'll make a lot here, as said some days ago. Get too greedy and they'll usher in the environment for measures they'd rather not have.

France is implementing price controls for end products.

I think the sp can go much higher imo. Whether it does when the profits are declared or before, I don't know. Ignore the spot and focus on the sustained higher average that is inevitable, even when drops occur, which they will.

He believes he alone can solve the world and what is good for him is good for the world essentially. He's susceptible to influence on those grounds, which people have been successful in exploiting for their own ends.

I don't not agree with the initial strikes. Even the war under certain circumstances, but it's being done pretty stupidly. Both sides are losing to a degree, but obviously, Iran is facing a much deeper loss and has already lost almost everything but the ability to thrash around imo.

That would be putting euphemistically. I'm not sure I'd call him a lunatic. A narcissist, yes.

Well, I'm confident it is not the end of days.

Anyway, they've been running things anyway so there is little change, but they are obviously worried or they would not be lying like this. Why bother lying? They've hit ships since day one, anyway. They're pooing it that they lose their oil island. Then Iran becomes like Syria.

I think you know my opinions of Trump.

I've found the media coverage of "the leader's" statement funny.

Not seen him, not heard him, mixed reports that he is in a coma or, as Iran itself has said, lightly injured.

Anything for a headline, I guess.

It sounds like he is not long for this world, if you believe reports. Explains why we haven't seen him, even ina recording.

There are rumours Iran is lying, and the supreme leader is in a coma, not directing things.

It's a really interesting report, so I encourage others to read up on it. They are still forecasting a yearly increase of over 1mln barrels a day, with non-gukf suppliers upping their output.

Fwiw, IEA forecasts that the supply reduction is 8 million per day. Big but some 7-12mln fewer than us touted by the media.

It is significant disruption BUT from a position of oversupply that was increasing, again important. This is why we have no physical shortages.

Gower, indeed! I'm sure they'll get their due.

An interesting point on the UK domestic front is that we have hundreds of thousands of consumers, largely fairly well-off, returning to the UK.

China alone increased its reserves by 170bln barrels in the last two years. The price went down during that period, just for info.

They are smart, and they don't build reserves at high prices by the looks of it though.

Note that China has built the largest strategic reserve ever, I believe, while oil prices have declined.

Esprit, in the wisdom of the market, what you do will determine whether you are a fool or a genius.

Be wary that the demand environment and other factors do not make this comparable to the environment in 2022. Even now, there are no physical shortages of oil for users,only fear and panic about the future.