Member Info for Zanab

"The president threatened to delay his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping and predicted a “very bad” future for NATO if it failed to join. But Trump said Tuesday the delay was coming because he felt he should remain in Washington as the war continued."

The guy was literally playing golf the weekend after, while US soldiers were getting injured and killed.

People in the administration likely desperately trying to get some sensible thinking into decision-makers head...

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-presented-daily-options-end-war-iran-hasnt-taken-far-rcna263399

IK, exactly, the spot market is a way to get distracted.

Trump being Trump while others are doing the grown-up work by the looks of it.

Can you imagine being an advisor to this guy?

Yeah, there's a backlog, but important to note that ships are not being fully-tracked due to GPS scrambling and turning tracking off.

If India and China resume flow, it will be huge given the reserve release and the pipeline mitigation. Bake in the oversupply too, but obviously anything can happen.

"China is the single largest importer of oil through this chokepoint, accounting for 37.7% of the total 20 million barrels that pass through the waterway"

Seems like it is just a matter of time, but then what isn't?!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/15/iran-to-allow-chinese-linked-ships-through-strait-of-hormuz/

It's about having the option for the countries to pass through. Iran is still sending out 1mln a day itself probably as it hasn't ramped down production.

They are about 50% of the pre-war exports, so 7.5mln to 10mln were going to China and India. Not that China needs it now with its humongous reserves, over a billion by some margin.

This was interesting.

"Informal talks with Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Turkey mediating have begun to lift the blockade. However, Trump administration has rebuffed attempts for ceasefire negotiations. France, Italy, and European countries are separately negotiating direct passage agreements with Iran. Oman's mediation attempts have been rejected by the White House. Iran's new supreme leader has vowed to keep the strait closed as a tool of pressure."

It sounds like they're being smart. If they don't block Europe's tankers, that limits rationale for escalation.

With India and China passing, though, that's the two countries who make up 50% of the exports that went through pre-war.

Thanks, remember there's an Iranian ship docked in India. That was the favour before as the US would have blown it up.

Does anyone have sight of the FT India Hormuz diplomacy breaking headline? There are signs that an opening is in the works.

Anyone else find it funny how many tankers have managed to travel through land to get out of Hormuz. That's innovation!

I doubt it will be a full opening and communication will be key, but it looks like the strait will likely see a significant number of ships pass sooner rather than later.

It seems obvious to me that other countries and Iran are actually pursuing diplomacy. Hopefully the US is as well, but it's so difficult to tell with all the tweets.

“It is only closed to American, Israeli ships and tankers, and not to others,” he said

Well, well, interesting from Iran official that the strait is OPEN to basically everyone: "The foreign minister also denied claims that Iran had fully closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes, instead saying the passage was only blocked to vessels with ties to the US and Israel."

Looks like Iran is playing this one smart if it lets communicated vessels through from non-beligerents.

I was just reading that Iran and Japan have friendly relations, which could mean that they are allowed tankers out, but let's see. Iran says strait is open to non-enemies, whatever that means because there are only two belligerents against them in the war.

I did some basic research and around 50% of exports typically go to China and India, who are on their good side ATM. Whether they continue at the same pace now remains to be seen.

Iran lets a couple of Indian tankers through, fyi

I'm not selling mine. I'm not a short-termer, and the higher average will make for a good year imo, regardless of whether the war ends tomorrow or later.

China pressuring Iran to open the strait and get something out of it: https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-14-26?post-id=cmmpeuhdj000b3b6rkae4rtrr

Somewhat predictable

The thing is that it's all well and good sending such a signal by bombing parts of the island, but you need a channel of communication, direct or indirect, to actually achieve something. Why not use Turkey and/or the Europeans who have open channels if you believe reports.