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Again, smart move, the threat is worth more.

Well, the strait is choked but not closed. Note the point that the numbers are much higher. China and Russia are getting through.

https://news.sky.com/story/dark-ships-and-shadow-fleets-what-is-crossing-closed-strait-of-hormuz-13517746

Interesting, de-escelation signs: "US asks Israel to stop striking energy sites in Iran - report", Axios.

Yeah, they can strangle throughout with threats, and then de-escelation ensues. Attacking tankers and escorts is just so stupid in this environment.

This is a stalemate. The US will claim victory, and Iran will claim victory.

Yeah, they will do something, but they used to do something against Israel with lots of notice and 100% interception. They will attack with the objectives of maintaining the threat, not to destroy.

If Iran let's tankers through, the US will leave theirs alone. If they attack them, the US will attack theirs.

Iran want to de-escelate as much as the US now.

Indeed, mate. Did they, didn't they? Seems like you'd have reasons for keeping it quiet and shouting about it too.

Another masterstroke of competency from a politician either way, I guess.

Bro-ken, oh dear. That will show me, if true for not waiting 10 minutes after a headline breaks.

Will zip it on that front until it becomes cleared. 🤐

I think you may have missed my relentless advocacy of a higher average tbh, which is indicative of a sustained demand for rebuilding reserves, not a panic. Remember the weak demand environment and oversupply.

If the oversupply halfed to 2million barrels and day, that could fill approx 3/4 of billion barrels in a year alone.

I doubt they're going to burn through that in their reserves as well.

Iran isn't stupid. They need to export oil too or they die.

Also, an escort just got a tanker through

10 billion is 500-600 days. A huge margin of security there, if believed.

Yes, they would have to be replaced BUT, that is just the countries in the IEA's reserves. There are also hundreds of millions of sanctioned oil on the sea. That's what India and China are going to be buying, BUT they will definitely get their ships through earlier than others too.

Listen to the video and the guy puts a combined commercial and sovereign reserve at potentially 10 billion.

Also, that Saudi pipeline was running under capacity prior to the shock, which is probably what you meant. The Saudis offered flow for an extra 3-5 million a day through the spot market.

The world's reserves won't be totally allocated, but there's plenty of oil. Also, note that the oversupply was forecast to grow this year. There was a 2-3 million barrels of oversupply a day before this that was growing towards 4million. That's why the price kept going lower.

That video shows you how people think strategically.

The conditions aren't there to support the panic that happened imo. Public information could tell you that.

A higher average is good anyway. It's not going stratospheric though.

The Iranians want things to calm down and the US want to calm things down for different reasons. The later will cause significant economic damage if it goes on for longer than a few weeks; the later will stop getting blown to smithereens. They both just want to say they've won when it will be something of a stalemate.

Very unlikely to continue for months. Plus mitigations mentioned are significant.

Eventually India's and China's ships, which are probably starting to sail through again, will start to go. They're just switching their transponders off.

1.2bln barrels of oil in reserves just of IEA.

Billions in inventories for China.

An existing oversupply.

A weakening Chinese economy.

US midterms. The reserve release might even be able to be exaggerated from the US to cause deflation locally, a boon politically.

Definite disruption, but the feeling is that it will end soon.

Check this out: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VrUh8GU47cs

TT, no exact breakdown is given, but they do give you some disclosure through the FX holdings. Turkey is mentioned on NA. India and other non-western countries will temporarily import gas from sanctioned sources, not what I want to see from a personal pov, but that will happen.

It's a flexible supply-chain, which was enhanced due to the previous energy price increase and will help to mitigate any impact, but I doubt producers even pass on short-term spikes, as that would just kill your customers' faith. A longer-term average will be partially passed on, but a rebalancing away from those suppliers will help, and the precedent is that Topps passed on every pound of goods inflation in the Russia spike, which was much, much worse than this one has been.

There's effects, but you can calculate the effects, and they are very likely to be marginal if cooler heads prevail and phased into next year.

I believe this won't be material because it can be offset and not as big as the panic assumed. Fwiw, energy costs for stores etc H2 will probably be less than 1m, even at higher cost.

Also, note the tailwinds of rate reductions, reduced cash outflows relating to the CMA, reduced outflows relating to businesses moving into profitability and Fired Earth selling high-value products. I also think having 100k of economically strong people potentially coming back to the UK and looking for somewhere to live feeds into a favourable effect on RMI.

I bet you there are plenty of companies that are on sale ATM. Topps is one of them.

Also, this is a bit out-there, but there 100,000s of UK citizens that are coming back to the UK, likely good-earners. That seems to have the potential to boost the economy.

I think China, India, Turkey and Brazil are some of the main non-european suppliers, fwiw. BUT, there is a lot of flexibility that chain, meaning you can move orders between regions to mitigate price shocks, if needed.

In short, it can get supply from anywhere regionally. Brazil basically has its own gas, meaning no price shocks. Turkey has well-diversified gas supplies away from Russia, so mitigated impact there. There's more, but this doomsday notion is a little farfetched, agenda-driven.

Sorry, Asian UK, and Europe has prices are the ones to look for, but supplies will get redirected from the US, I'd assume possibly.

What country?