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Behind a paywall, but this seems to have gone under the radar and from a credible outlet: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-news-updates-2026/card/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-remain-open-but-it-will-target-u-s-israeli-ships-hhXJPFCjbfbNawy6YqqR?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdrKGks2NtsSV-Il3R9zefASKIamFfUBdAUVyznf6iML5EFrvEpjyuO1B5JE0Y%3D&gaa_ts=69acb89a&gaa_sig=jUIua5Dlls6nhC8Gp25yQEczTXNGBpS2v3iNS8lquIayjCDtU9DppI-lORQw7CCmFwoMXSopChoumsfXBGz6zg%3D%3D

"Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz but vessels linked to the United States or Israel will not be allowed to pass, a senior military spokesman told Iranian state television.

The remarks signal Tehran is seeking to restrict specific shipping rather than impose a full closure of the strategic waterway, which handles a significant share of global oil flows and has already seen sharply reduced traffic amid the widening conflict."

This is also interesting. It seems to indicate that much will be allowed through the strait if the fog clears for certain countries who get a lot of their oil from the gulf.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603068768

Much more worrying than that if you've got kids of fighting age anywhere in the world.

Let's hope you're right.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-rising-gas-prices-during-iran-operation-if-they-rise-they-rise-2026-03-05/

If that happens, it's ww3. Attacks on commercial ships flying under various countries flags.

If Iran is as Wiley as some believe, they won't do anything that stupid. The threat is more use to them than the action here.

Meoryou, yeah, that there is no plan for oil reeks of incompetence. The strikes themselves appear to be successful.

I wonder if demand reduction in a weak environment could potentially cap the increase, and oil producers in Western countries will get clobbered with another windfall increment imo if it goes too far.

Harmonica, np. It's anyone's guess tbh, and I don't know enough to be reliable, but then the analysts were calling a price much lower. There's definitely a lot of unknowns ATM.

The December futures are still at 70 dollars, fwiw. Personally, I can see a partial reopening, Iran's allies getting ships through, India also being allowed to get Russian oil, the global economic slowdown, especially China, and high inventory levels all serving as mitigations that will keep it around the 100 mark imo in the short-term .

Any calming down will cause a dip, but the risk premium will keep it around 75-85 dollars imo. That would be my finger in the air forecast for the average in 2026, and it's not out of line with the futures market. Call me a copycat ;)

That's manageable for economies as the costs will get baked in over a year, giving time for adaption.

Hopefully cooler heads will prevail here, but given Trump's response to a potential olive branch offered by Iran's president, a reformist, let's see. I do wish the former had at least one person in his ear who can tell him that you need a mix of hard power and diplomatic skill to achieve lasting results in the world.

Agreed, but Hamas had years to prepare and did and got decimated. Israel has had years to prepare for this. It's just they finally got a president who would go for it, not that I agree with extended bombing.

This is interesting and seemed balanced: https://www.devere-group.com/analysts-hike-oil-price-forecast-on-iran-war-news/#:~:text=The%20survey%20found%20a%20consensus,and%20other%20latent%20supply%20risks.

Tldr, could go higher, some mitigation will help. Analysts seem to be anchoring around 100 if it goes on for 5 weeks.

Yeah, they're still at it, but did the ship get through, I'd be interested to know?

I am guessing they will allow tankers bound for India and China through soon, which could be significant, but yep, the strait is the key. Only about 10-15% of the throughput can be redirected through a pipeline. Maybe another 15% gets allowed through for allies and some countries allowed to buy Russian oil. That still leaves a significant hole in supply, somewhat tempered further by a weakening demand.

We might all be thankful economies aren't booming right now.

I think it's going to be more than just the US escorting if needed

I'm anticipating it more to steady, but what do I know. There has been real disruption, but the year was supposed to be one of weak demand and oversupply, so there may be a bit of luck for people's energy bills there.

The thing is with missle launchers is that, while I'm not sure if I believe it is possible to hide them, once you fire them, the enemy knows where they are, meaning you get a couple of shots.

It's a fair point that things are unpredictable and the leadership is made up of lots of individuals.

I feel like you're overestimating Iranian capabilities though. For all their preparation, they've been hit hard and missle and drone volumes are down significantly, assassinations have been completed. Sure, they are not toothless, but I'd be equally careful at underestimating the capacity for projection which these countries rely on.

I don't think it's a winnable situation for anyone. Game theory tells us that escalation never yields any winners. The president is actually a reformist. The winning move for Iran is for the incumbents to endure by calming things down.

Also, long-term prices moved up considerably but still around 70usd to December 2026. Not saying this price is right or wrong, but it is the price companies can fix now.

I would say likely in the short-term, but this seems to indicate that there may be some brain cells operating on one side here. A smart Iranian leadership could do well for its relations and save face: they've apologised for strikes and admitted they were mistakes on the gulf and put a fair condition down that says they won't attack any more.

Interesting times. They could score some real points and mediation influence with other countries in their response here should they be shown to be willing to be the first to descelate.

I don't know their individual supplier, so that's an unknown to me, but there's enough to calculate accurately on the energy they directly use. The former requires an estimate.

I'm genuinely interested in your opinion, but you do only seem to come out when the price moves the way you feel supports your opinion.

Topps is growing and consolidating. Strong growth across the board.

It doesn't need a booming housing market, as it's not bricks or a builder, but it would help.

Topps has proven to be a survivor, picking up share from acquisitions of distressed competition as well know industry margins are tight. It's possible this trend continues.

There is a significant cashinflow this year due to the CMA and other costs, covering any liquidity risk.

The company finished with a good net cash position.

Energy costs are likely fixed for a significant portion of the year. They are replacing 20% of the fleet with electric vehicles as we speak, assuming they complete their claim to be doing so.

If profitability is maintained, which it likely will be, the dividend is supported.

I just can't see why Topps would suffer any more than VIC or any other such retailer.

I've run the sliderule over the costs. It's hard to estimate the goods inflation, which will be delayed as businesses don't pay spot rates for all their energy.

Although, I did manage to bait you out now the price moved the way you wanted it to. You were very quiet before ;).

It's not blind optimism when you can reliably calculate the inflation and you know the tile market is stable.

You went with online eats everything last time you were critisicing this company but is it now the oil price? Your last judgement has so far proven wrong fwiw, future pending

He gets butchered if the oil price increases anyway, but yeah, I agree, they'd get butchered if they did that.

Question for the oil buffs. 20% passes through the strait, apparently there was on oversupply of between 2-3m barrels a day. China apparently has nearly maxed out its storage capacity for oil and has a slowing economy. Europe has about 3/4 of its gas storage capacity and the US is producing more oil. Also, 2-3m barrels can be redirected through a pipeline.

So, if they do get a partial passage, the hit is still significant but mitigated, right? If we had a booming global economy, the price would rocket, so my question is: given the anticipation from analysts prior to this was that there would be a significant oversupply this year does this spike have the potential to be limited and just fizzle out?

Let's see. If they don't get anything through because of attacks, it's obvious that it will be a ground invasion

You'd hope that given the effects globally of the oil supply disruption that sorting it out will be high on the agenda. Volatility ahead!

What interesting times we live in. I can't see Trump getting the Nobel now though.