Member Info for Zanab

On store closures, that's part of retail. Obviously increased costs might put marginally profitable stores into scope, but the new CEO mentioned that it is something that they review constantly, as any other retailer does, I guess.

Volatility is there, but that's when you make money tbh by tuning things out and cutting through the noise to actually calculate the impact.

Okay, fair enough, mate.

I was able to model the direct costs based on a persistent high average.

I've forecasted the energy inputs into product goods to be reliant on gas and oil. You're right: ceramics require significant energy for production

A persistent increase would hit profits. Between 3.5-5m if prices were to remain high for a year, like 1.20 USD for crude. This is my worst-case scenario.

So, store running costs for H1, the more energy intensive, will be a bit less than last year, includes March peak.

There will be a delay in stock inflation coming through, so that's unlikely to affect H2 of this year too much. It will affect 27 more. Direct costs are probably fixed for most stores for 6-12 months. The volatility is occuring going into the spring and summer, which is serendipity.

In terms of mitigation, business rates will offer at least 1m in savings for Topps estate. I've modelled 1% additional pricing to mitigate to of between 2.5-3m.

Hopefully our gov intervenes to cap the potential cost to consumers. I'd rather it didn't happen obviously, but it can be offset. It does mean Topps will pick up more share imo as smaller firms suffer. That supports medium-term margin enhancements ironically.

WTI below 100 now.

The thing is that BP will benefit from a significantly higher AVERAGE. If you want to make money of spot prices, trade the market. Oil producers are a smarter investment imo.

I can see the oil price coming down eventually, obviously. The share price will rise here though for obvious reasons

Granted, but I'm not expecting them to flood the market, just not have to go into it to buy oil. As the biggest user of oil, that is significant.

Countries aren't traders.

Sorry, the former has huge reserves, not much need to go into the market.

Hmm, if you're brave, shorting is not my thing, not too sure it is that easy but I wish luck to everyone trying to make a crust.

I doubt a peak price will be sustained, but China and the US have reserves. The later has huge reserves, and the biggest individual consumers have good relations with Iran, so there's plenty of rational reasons to cut through the panic, which is based on a real risk btw. Plenty of levers to alleviate some supply reduction though.

Iran is leveraging the threat smartly, I would guess. It needs the threat more than the reality itself here imo. Understanding Wat published a good report for those interested

Saudi is releasing deliveries through its pipeline into the spot markets, fwiw, hard to find an article that isn't behind a paywall. I'd expect another release statement from the IEA when the sun rises in NYC.

Harmonica, yep, just seen the articles on the talk of IEA releasing reserves being likely. They have a call in the morning in NYC.

It kind of feels like this is the first thing they should do. China also has massive inventories, so what happens to the price, I don't know, but it seems there's supply there.

I'd expect a risk premium to endure for a while though. Like every good analyst, I'm updating my yearly average for the price to hover in the 85-100 range ;). Short-term is anyone's guess, but it means good cash flows for producers.

Although saying that, you'd have thought a country staging a war would have had some kind of plan to minimise the effects on oil supply of their war, so go figure.

Yeah, but what if China, US, India and Japan, who will care more about their country agree on caps? I know the theory is there for these meteoric rises, but do people really think governments from the majority consumers of oil won't intervene?

We basically have a cap in this country too.

A cap on end-products translates to a cap on imports essentially under Article 23 of the Petroleum and Alternative Fuel Business Act.

Some interesting nuggets here: https://fortune.com/2026/03/08/oil-market-chaos-crude-prices-iraq-kuwait-uae-output-cuts-hormuz/

South Korea is mulling a price cap on oil. Whether it happens or not depends on how things evolve, but can definitely see it being popular, as said.

Dl, fair point. It just feels like they'll lose all their leverage soon enough then.

I saw the oil depot thing. How is Iran so bad at defending itself? It's just getting absolutely pummeled.

Indeed. I also believe it's in oil sellers best interest to keep any rise from being extreme.

This isn't like the recent spike where we had the post-covid boom to delay the effects. That for me puts demand constraints on oil, but it also tells me that restrictions will be imposed on oil prices one way or another.

It's politically obvious, and we all know if Trump does it to help himself out in the midterms then everyone will do it.

The best case scenario is a modest rise that isn't sustained but settles at a higher average.

The UK has its mechanism, and I wouldn't be surprised to see such a thing go global. Not a hard sell.

Important to remember that 50% of exports go to India and China alone from the gulf. Another 10-15% can go through the pipeline. Other amounts go to non-western countries too.

Behind a paywall, but this seems to have gone under the radar and from a credible outlet: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-news-updates-2026/card/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-remain-open-but-it-will-target-u-s-israeli-ships-hhXJPFCjbfbNawy6YqqR?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdrKGks2NtsSV-Il3R9zefASKIamFfUBdAUVyznf6iML5EFrvEpjyuO1B5JE0Y%3D&gaa_ts=69acb89a&gaa_sig=jUIua5Dlls6nhC8Gp25yQEczTXNGBpS2v3iNS8lquIayjCDtU9DppI-lORQw7CCmFwoMXSopChoumsfXBGz6zg%3D%3D

"Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz but vessels linked to the United States or Israel will not be allowed to pass, a senior military spokesman told Iranian state television.

The remarks signal Tehran is seeking to restrict specific shipping rather than impose a full closure of the strategic waterway, which handles a significant share of global oil flows and has already seen sharply reduced traffic amid the widening conflict."