Member Info for Zanab

That's very insightful, thanks.

I did some estimations on gas costs and I'm comfortable with things. It's the Asian and UK gas prices I would look at, but you're right: India caps prices, I think, as do some other countries.

It needs to be a sustained high and even then, the precedent is that supply-chain flexibility eased a lot of it, and it is likely to do the same.

It's not a phenomenon specific to one tile seller either, which is important.

Fwiw, 2/3s of direct energy costs happen in H1, which ends in March. We are about at the average of last year for the half once you include a price for March higher than it is now. There's every chance that energy costs don't move at all on average.

Energy was in oversupply with a slowing China that has massive reserves, so the environment isn't like Ukraine at all.

Those who sold most things are going to look pretty silly in this panic.

If you knew your history, this is what Trump does. Go back to the 80s and 90s with all the takeover rumours he used to start himself after buying up shares and then dumping them.

Eventually people stopped believing him and he lost lots of money.

Sorry, didn't read your message properly.

I think his "aims" change all the time.

He wants to destroy their abilities to produce missiles, not just the missiles.

Basically, buying oil, not oil shares, is like playing a game of Russian roulette. It's just all going to end soon, apparently

By the way he's talking, if you can read anything into it, this war could end this week, madness!

This kind of volatility leads me to believe the drop when it ends will be brutal.

I'm switching to alcohol tonight, methinks ;)

What is going on? Oil now down 😂.

Looking at pricing, last time, Ukraine etc, they managed to pass on every pound. Seems like it would be the way again.

Yeah, talks of escorts again. They could definitely reopen it with enough will given the resources they have though imo.

We're getting the market make trade streams again for accumulation. Lots of 1s and 2 and then a sizeable few orders.

Brent is below 100

Indeed, leading to a higher average, but it should serve to dampen spikes. The thing is with high prices is that they often create deflationary environments longer-term though due to the buildout of supply.

I'd hate to have bought in the spot right before it happens though, so the expectation might help to keep it depressed for now even before it's announced if things are forward-looking.

When it comes, but it looks like it is coming.

It's 3-400 million barrels, I believe. With other mitigations, it should be sufficient to maintain supply for 20-30 days.

This doesn't include drawdowns by China, which isn't a member , of course, in its reserves.

I still think BP is a screaming buy in this environment given the higher average.

"South Korea's trade ministry also warned oil firms that any attempt to take advantage of the crisis will be dealt with, calling for "transparent and fair" pricing after the cost of petrol rose in in recent days."

It's going to be a case of don't get too greedy and you'll make a fortune for oil producers

South Korea has imposed a cap. I expect releases from reserves and more end-products caps from other countries and a limit via a punitive tax above a certain price for the commodity.