Member Info for xxnjr

Anton,

Just by observing what happens on Marine Traffic

They are part paying off 7% bonds with Glencore facility that comes at a steep 15%.

There was an offload yesterday from Jubilee. That and 2 others on the 4th and 16th suggests Jan will be at similar levels to December, or a bit below.

There was an apparent negative revision of -25.1 mmbbls of Jubilee reserves due to production performance. (It's probably larger than -25.1 as TEN reserves were up by an unquantified amount).

1. Is there a good explanation for the production fall-off towards December 2024?

The underlying decline rate on Jubilee (if you don't drill wells) is about 25%. So maybe it's just normal decline.

2. Is the fall reversible?

Yes, you probably need to drill more wells (more than 2 in 2025)

Interestingly Jubilee

GOR fell from 32.45% (Oct) to 31.13% (Dec)

scf/bbl fell from 2,882 (Oct) to 2,712 (Dec)

whilst production fell from 82,664 to 77,886 for same months

Falling GOR and scf could suggest they've shut in a very gassy well, or (and this is worse) increasing rates of w/inj are re-pressurising the reservoir (which we are told will increase production) but the opposite is happening at the moment (increasing reservoir pressure if it has increased isn't resulting in higher production).

just miscellaneous thoughts.

The nov trading update said

"Jubilee oil production averaged c.89 kbopd (c.34.5 kbopd net) to end-October".

"TEN oil production has remained consistent, averaging c.19 kbopd".

Indicating Gross Ghana was c.108K bopd

Let's test that. I have a spreadsheet that does this automatically. Multiply each months production (from Petrocom) by the number of days in that month. For every month Jan to October. Noting 2024 is a leap year. That gives you total M10 ytd production in mmbbls for Jubilee and TEN. Then divide by 305 (as leap yr) to get annual M10 ytd ave for fields. That results in

Jubilee: 88,625 bopd

TEN: 18,746 bopd

Ghana: 107,371

629 bopd lost already!

[It was the same thing with the pricing of 4 cargos to determine y/end cashflow. According to Petrocom there were only 2 cargos!]

Do the same exercise for 2024FY

Jubilee: 87,019 bopd

TEN: 18,537 bopd (which they will still say is 19K!!!!)

Yes that was all 2023.

For 2024, oil guidance was 55K/58K/61K. Middle no, is mid-range.

I estimate for 2024FY we'll come in at about 54.5K, slightly under lower end of guidance.

(could be wrong)

28/Nov "The final [FCF] position within the revised range for 2024 will depend on realised prices of four cargos yet to price, progress on receipt of the overdue gas payments from the Government of Ghana (currently c.$40 million outstanding) and working capital movements."

Never understood the above. The realised OP is usually the 5 day ave after Bill of Lading. Looking at Petrocom TLW cargoes were

JUB 28/Nov

TEN 14/Dec

Other cargoes went to

JUB GNPC 10/Dec

JUB Kosmos 23/Dec

Thats your 4 cargos (unless there's another from Gabon, or Cd'I).

So maybe its just 2 TLW cargos + 4 underlift/overlift adjustments?

Perhaps useful in reminding ourselves what happened last year, as it may help us judge how 2024 is progressing. The 2023 january trading update indicated 2023FY oil production guided to be in the range of (58-64) Kbopd.

Oil Production guidance (58-64) was maintained at March Results, the May AGM and the July Trading Update. Then “narrowed” from (58-64) to (58-60) at Sept 2023/1H results. Then further downgraded to “marginally below (58-60)” at Nov 15th trading update. The 2024 Jan trading update, which one would have hoped would be pretty accurate, told us 2023 “full year working interest production averaged c.63 kboepd in 2023, including c.6 kboepd of Jubilee gas.”

Indicating approx 57K bopd oil production for the year of 2023.

Actual production as per 2023 full year results turned out to be only 55,800 bopd.

I’ll leave it to you to judge if 55.8 is “marginally below (58-60)”

And how does 57,000, as indicated, become 55,800?

Forget Kenya IMO. Its utter Rahul nonsense. It's never going to happen. The economics don't stack up for the pipeline option. They only drilled 1 well in Gabon afaics, the Sarafina well. Perenco (the operator) have said nought about it, choosing instead to highlight successful drilling in Colombia. What does that tell you? The decline we've seen in Jubilee Q4 is normal if you don't drill wells to offset the underlying annual decline rate (25%). So in a sense I'm agreeing with you..... it must be something else. Maybe something on refinancing?

Nein!

It's been 4.5 yrs of failure and empty promises. All the upsides Mr Dhir told you about

TEN >50Kboepd

JUB >110Kbopd

Kenya (what a joke!).

Ghana new GSA at higher prices than $3/MCF.

$40m contingent payments from Gabon/EG asset sale. Actual Zero.

And more.....

All empty promises!

The assets he sold like Gabon have performed far better than Ghana. Every decision he's made has proven to be the wrong one (like betting the house on Ghana). The only positives you could say is Dhir ran a tight ship (aka Private Equity) and drilling efficiencies/fpso uptimes have been good.

The strategy has failed. He's was politely asked to go. He resigned. Or he could face standing in front of shareholders anymore. Either way, good riddance.

Or maybe the reason they haven't published an exact date is because Dhir is scared of being upstaged by former CEO McDade who in the same 4.5 yrs has built from nothing a company Afentra which now has an Mcap that is 1/3rd of TLW. Afentra is now Net Cash Positive to boot. Last yr Afentra released results the same day as Tullow! Afentra have released a trading update but will be giving an investor presentation on 30/Jan.

The only positive thing they could announce is that Mr Dhir has left and the absurdly high number of share options he's been given over the years despite sub-par performance have been cancelled!

If a more or less continuous drilling program of 18 wells on Jubilee failed to increase production on a sustained basis. 2 wells in 2025 on Jubilee hardly likely to do much other than a temporary blip?

There was an acknowledge in the Nov Trading Update that production was in decline

".....this is expected to mitigate the declines experienced in the second half of 2024.”

"expected" then covers all outcomes for 2025.

Clever use of words I'd suggest.

Https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/jubilee-field-producing-over-100000-bopd/

That quote is 18 months out of date.

Antonvb,

Are you sure about that (the 42.5%)?

Admittedly I haven't read much about Kenya for the last 3 yrs+ but isn't the situation that gov.ken hold as yet unexercised back in rights of c.20%. These will only be exercised, should gov.ken choose to do so, after an FID has taken place. Kenya have now appointed an outside consultant to evaluate a potential field development to inform as to whether exercising those back in rights would make sense.

i.e if exercised Kenya will only be taking c20%, not 42.5% as you suggest.

That's E&P for your! In order to drill a well, any driller has to have a positive view of the outcome of that well, otherwise the well would never be drilled. The problem is that drilling wells isn't full proof. It's all based on someone(s) idea of what a few squiggly lines of seismic may represent. The squiggly lines themselves were the result of someone else(s) efforts to convert sound reflections into squiggly lines. And this is then viewed in the context of someone else(s) basin modelling of what they think may have happened between 10 million and 150 million years ago. It's not for widows and orphans.

JP2000 I have a copy of the CPO-5 PSC which is available on this link.
hTTp://www.anh.gov.co/Asignacion-de-areas/CONTRATOS%20FIRMADOS%20EP%20y%20TEAS/CONTRATOS%20EyP%20TEAS%20%20%202008/CTO%20EyP%20CPO%205%20%202008.pdf
If LSE delete my link, then do a google search of

y por la otra parte, ONGC VIOESH LTO. SUCURSAL COLOMBIANA, sucursal de sociedad extranjera debidamente constituida de acuerdo con las leyes de la República de Nueva Delhi, India con domicilio principal en Bogotá OC., según la escritura pública No. 0075 del 16 de enero de 2008, otorgada en la Notaría dieciséis (16) del Círculo de Bogotá, D.C., representada por BATHALA OASARATHA NAIOU, mayor de edad, ciudadano Indio, identificado con pasaporte No. P.POOOF9645921 de India, quien manifiesta:

This should bring up the PSC. Having downloaded that into PDF format, save document.
Then search that PDF saved file for =
(just the = will suffice)
this will take you to the formulas governing profit sharing at various OP
Failing that message me on ADVFN, or LSE (if thats possible) and I'll e-mail you the PSC.