Member Info for xxnjr

Bluemoon71,

I'm surprised they haven't already done a "S&L" on Jubilee FPSO. Maybe they are waiting for 2027 when the TEN FPSO lease reaches 10th anniversary and annual lease costs on that drop from $130m now to c.50% of that.

If I was running the company I might ask: Do we really need 2 FPSO's in Ghana?

Supercooper,

FWIW. It's worth noting that Rahul's previous sales of Cote d'Ivoire and Gabon Dussafu have resulted in zero contingent payments being received to date and in my view zero being paid in the future as they were both bad deals.

Also that the 1 bn bbl potential Orinduik Super Block with 3 apparent Tullow 'discoveries' was sold not for say $0.35bn but for an incredibly trivial $700K.

Kenya should be sold (if possible) but can't imagine the up front payment would be more than $50m tops (if any takers?).

According to the mid year Reserves Report

NPV10 net to Tullow, as of 1 July 2024 ($m)

Jubilee 2,804

TEN (58) negative

Gabon 400

Côte d’Ivoire (15) negative

The only thing that could be sold then is Gabon. Maybe $300m as Tullow are desperate?

That leaves a company with $1.1bn Net Debt, annual production of 34K to 39K bopd and FCF of $125m/yr at $80/bbl.

Whichever way you slice it that is not great!

What else?

Maybe they could do a "sale and leaseback" on the Jubilee FPSO.

And/or securitise future contingent revenue stream from Uganda. (Uganda didn't get a mention in 'Total Energies 2024FY Results and 2025 Objectives Presentation' the other day, so first oil probably drifting into 2026/7).

It's pretty tight, isn't it.

Antonvb,

I'd prefer to think of it as "In Richard we trust" rather than 2F's to RD. Richard is a decent guy. Plays a straight bat (not that I'm saying RD didn't just to clarify). I think the overlying hurdle is perhaps the tussle between the 25's and the 26's. Let's see how that goes. There are 25 days to go until the 25's are due to be repaid.

Maybe the question we should ask ourselves is this.

When the Petrocom production data for Jubilee Oct/Nov/Dec came out; were you shocked?

If you were shocked that perhaps should help inform the debate here.

Fair point supercooper,

wrt Sammy (Petrolin) I suspect he has a different end game than simply making a profit from his shares. Probably more like control, or being part of a group that takes back control of Tullow, eventually at some point. Back in 2003 TLW was basically a UKNS gas producer which also had a tiny foothold in W. Africa. Back end of 2003 Sammy sold Energy Africa to TLW which doubles TLW's production to about 60K boepd. That deal was the making of TLW and the gift that kept giving. Sammy (I imagine) ultimately would like to see TLW back in his stable - but he's getting on a bit now!

Well it is really good news that Rahul is leaving. The problem under the existing arrangement (Rahul staying on until next CEO selected) was to do with his share options. He'd stupidly been granted about 24m share options under TLW's absurdly generous incentive plan despite the faltering performance of the company. However his options were underwater at the time of his ejection/resignation. What to do between resignation and the incoming new CEO? Solicit bids? Flog the company at a distressed price that would at least rescue some of his distressed options to the detriment of long term shareholders, or any shareholders who bought above say 27.5p? That risk has now been alleviated hopefully.

Sorry Antonvb,

I meant to say I hope it works out for you!

No worries antonvb.

And thanks for your response!

That is a fair q antonvb,

I've been invested in Tullow since 2004 on and off having sold all of my shares at £13 and £16. The 'on and off' refers to the period since my original sells and now. But it's been really hard making any money out of TLW for years as it's been in continual long term decline. Obviously I don't hold any at the moment given my views of the current situation. But that does not mean I am short. I am not. I have confined my posting on TLW to The Motley Fool (which, alas, no longer exists) and since the demise of TMF, only posted on ADVFN where for the last 24 months I've been highlighting the production issues at Jubilee and TEN. Many newbies to ADVFN accuse me of being short but long term holders usually point out that xxnjr is neither short/long but just factual. It is true I tend to highlight the negatives (of which there have been a lot). Why? Because BB's tend naturally to have a positive bias. Which can perhaps lead to uninformed decisions. OK I have a fair amount of knowledge on TLW and do quite a lot of deep analysis on the production side of things. Since I have the data why shouldn't I share that with folks to enable them to perhaps have a more realistic understanding of the investment case here? Why did I start posting here only recently? Because the ADVFN BB on TLW has gone completely dead!

And I don't know how Rahul, as he claimed, is going to potentially sell gas to 3rd party offtakers as all the gas has to go through the GNPC(GNGC) plant!

None of that helps TLW. The problem they have (unlike ENI) is that the FPSO does not have the facilities to fully treat the gas, so the gas then has to pass through an onshore gas processing plant built by GNPC before it can be delivered to end customers. The GPP at Atuabo has a capacity of 120 - 150 mmscfd. That's the limit. Instead of utilising Ghana's own gas what have GNPC done? Rather than building a GPP 2 they have instead build an LNG import terminal! In December 2024 TLW flared 8,660 boepd of gas from Jub+TEN. Ghana.gov are even more stupid than UK.gov!

Perenco (the operator) have chosen to say nothing on Rahuls "discovery" and instead highlight successful drilling in Colombia.

Corporate government was the issue underling McDade's departure. I can only suggest corgov has significantly declined under Rahul.

Totally agree gogadjet a non-pipeline development with road tankers would be of a much smaller scale.

If it happens it could just be a localised trucking development. Something Rahul has mentioned on a few occasions recently. Such a development may appeal to the Chinese. But they'll just be sitting quietly waiting for developments in the company tp play out so they have a stronger hand.

Paying off the 25's first then refinancing the 26's at a later date is receiving some kickback.

[bloomberg]"A group representing holders of Tullow’s $1.39 billion bonds due 2026 is working with lawyers at Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton in a bid to push the company to come up with a comprehensive solution, said people familiar with the matter, asking not to be named because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly. The 2026 notes fell 1.9 cents on the dollar to 91.8 cents on Thursday, the data shows."

Hi coop,

Just from what I've read over the years from various sources. I think it's well understood that there needs to be considerable movement from the Kenyan tax authorities to 'Tweak' the fiscal terms and taxation to make the project viable. That hasn't happened as I understand it. There are also security concerns as the pipeline route is fairly close to Somalia. Then there's the matter of getting banks to finance the pipeline. Drilling hundreds of wells and building a pipeline through a national park is not exactly 'on message'. Even Total Energies have been having issues getting their pipeline finance in place which is why Uganda first oil keeps being moved back a yr at a time.

Regarding asset sales there is nothing much to sell, is there? See the 2024/1H Reserves NPV Report

Cote d'Ivoire has a negative asset value.

TEN has a negative asset value.

Gabon is sellable.

Jubilee is core but they could maybe do a sale and leaseback of the FPSO?

Future payments from Total Uganda could be securitised?

Kenya probably not worth much up front as an undefined potential development. But Hey! you never know.

Does that mean if they sell something with a negative NPV for say $1 then that is accretive?

I don't know why Rahul talks about Kenya. I don't know why folks on this board talk about Kenya. It's an uneconomic project that most likely will never happen. The best thing to do (as I think JMAX suggested), sell it for a nominal amount + contingent payments. Get rid of it. It's just a mirage in the sands. In fact in his capital markets presentation of about 4 yrs ago RD said something like "it's a project, we'll try to progress it but at the end of the day it will either happen, or not".

It's been like this for several years. RD presentations were frankly sh*t. All he wanted to talk to shareholders about was "tree hugging", net zero, "shared prosperity" and wokeism etc etc. It seemed to me that he was actually avoiding talking about producing the stuff, that is oil and gas operations in Ghana, as he knew where this was going. There was also an element of what politicians would call 'spin'. For example "recent wells in Ghana have disappointed but 'interestingly reservoir qualities like net pay, porosity are all on prognosis' (or words to that effect). i.e it's not really that bad at all. BS! If the wells (yes thats plural) are underperforming then somethings wrong.

Then there was the undefined w/inj issue that arose, was (apparently) fixed, then it wasn't fixed, then it was fixed again (until it wasn't) and so it went on ad infinitum.

Then the 'recent wells underperforming' became 'primarily J-69P' underperforming. Yeah sure. If J-56P, J-57P, J-60P, J61-P, J-63P, J-64P, J66-P, J-68P, J-71P plus 8 w/inj wells haven't moved the needle ( meaning ave longterm uplift per well looks like zero!), we are expected to believe that J-69P is almost solely responsible for the loss of 20K bopd. It's nonsense.

I could go on. The point is there's been a complete loss of confidence in the market in whatever mutterings and spin emanate from the CEO's tongue.

The thing is if I was an incoming CEO I would want the company to kitchen sink all the bad news and potential write downs before being appointed. If not it may be harder to attract suitable candidates.